事故树定量分析与安全指标的数学模型的建立

阐述了在该课题研究过程中，提出的一些新概念、新定义和新方法     

Time series analysis of coal mine accident experience

This study investigates several forecasting techniques that can be useful to mine safety managers for studying mine accident rate behavior. Three time series models were studied for extrapolation of accident rates. These models are applied to historical accident incidence data from a coal mine. Further, a method is presented for evaluating the three models for the selection of an appropriate model. For this particular mine application, it is concluded that the more complex Box-Jenkins ARMA model as well as first order autoregressive model do not give better results than the simple exponential smoothing model. However, when the random variations or autocorrelations in the accident experience rates between periods are different, the models may predict differently. As such, specific models must be developed for each mine on the basis of statistical analysis of the mine accident experience data over time. Moreover, the importance of incorporating human judgement to interpret the results of statistical forecasting cannot be overemphasized. Integration of policy or operating changes, which may impact mine safety performance, with statistical forecasting techniques is essential to arrive at a realistic prediction of future performance.     

Managing Alberta's water: the decision-making process

Land and water are Canada's most valuable renewable natural resources. Canada possesses one-quarter of the world's known volume of fresh water. Fresh water covers 75369000 hectares of 7.1% of the country's surface. This area represents a very substantial number oflakes, rivers, streams, deltas and bays and is perhaps Canada's most vital and strategic resource. Canada has to have ab overall plan of management which provides direction, coordination, and assistance for the management of its water resources at the provincial and regional levels.     

The material resources for the iron and steel industries

The future supplies of iron ore, coking coal and ferrous scrap are discussed. There is no likelihood of the resources of iron ore being exhausted until well into the twenty-first century. Coking coal, on the other hand, is in shorter supply but it is being eked out by blending with non-coking coal and by making blast furnaces more efficient. Briquettes made completely from non-coking coal will play a part in iron making in the future. To ensure greater flexibility in steel making, hydrocarbons are being considered as possible substitutes for coal. Scrap has always played an important part in steel making and the amount recycled is increasing every year. But more effort is needed, for example, to ensure that the steel in car scrap is fully utilised and that refuse is efficiently recycled. Steel making increasingly demands the scrap to have few impurities and to be in uniform sized pieces. A cryogenic method of preparing such scrap is described. A futuristic way of extracting iron, non-ferrous metals and other saleeable by-products from refuse, by using redundant blast furnaces, is also discussed.     

车用汽油铅损害及其对策研究

针对车用汽油的抗爆性能要求,探讨四乙基铅（Ｐｂ（Ｃ２Ｈ５）４）抗爆添加剂的作用机理,并着重分析研究了由此而引起的发动机铅排放对人类造成的损害及给大气环境等带来的污染。还探讨了车用汽油铅损害的对策及其最新进展     

安全分析和评价方法论

本文对系统安全分析和评价方法进行了讨论。对它们的特点作了介绍和比较。同时给出了选用方法的要点.