TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

Investigating the key indicators for evaluating post‐disaster shelter

This study sought to identify the primary indicators for evaluating shelter assistance following natural disasters and then to develop a shelter evaluation instrument based on these indicators. Electronic databases and the ‘grey’ literature were scoured for publications with a relation to post‐disaster shelter assistance. Indicators for evaluating such assistance were extracted from these publications. In total, 1,525 indicators were extracted from 181 publications. A preliminary evaluation instrument was designed from these 1,525 indicators. Shelter experts checked the instrument for face and content validity, and it was revised subsequently based on their input. The revised instrument comprises a version for use by shelter agencies (48 questions that assess 23 indicators) and a version for use by beneficiaries (52 questions that assess 22 indicators). The instrument can serve as a standardised tool to enable groups to gauge whether or not the shelter assistance that they supply meets the needs of disaster‐affected populations.     

End‐state land uses,sustainably protective systems,and risk management: A challenge for remediation and multigenerational stewardship

This article discusses creating a sustainably protective engineered and human management system in perpetuity for sites with long‐lived radiological and chemical hazards. This is essential at this time because the federal government is evaluating its property as assets and attempting to reduce its holdings, while seeking to assure that health and ecosystems are not put at risk. To assist those who have a stake in the remediation, management, and stewardship of these and analogous privately owned sites, this article discusses current end‐state planning by reviewing the federal government's accelerated efforts to reduce its footprint and how those efforts relate to sustainability. The article also provides a list of questions organized around six elements of risk management and primary, secondary, and tertiary disease and injury prevention. Throughout the article, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is used as an example of an organization that seeks to reduce its footprint, manage its budget, and be a steward of the sites that it is responsible for. However, the approach and questions are appropriate for land controlled by the Department of Defense (DOD), the General Services Administration (GSA), and other public and private owners of sites with residual contamination. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Farm factors associated with reducing Cryptosporidium loading in storm runoff from dairies

A systems approach was used to evaluate environmental loading of Cryptosporidium oocysts on five coastal dairies in California. One aspect of the study was to determine Cryptosporidium oocyst concentrations and loads for 350 storm runoff samples from dairy high use areas collected over two storm seasons. Selected farm factors and beneficial management practices (BMPs) associated with reducing the Cryptosporidium load in storm runoff were assessed. Using immunomagnetic separation (IMS) with direct fluorescent antibody (DFA) analysis, Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected on four of the five farms and in 21% of storm runoff samples overall. Oocysts were detected in 59% of runoff samples collected near cattle less than 2 mo old, while 10% of runoff samples collected near cattle over 6 mo old were positive. Factors associated with environmental loading of Cryptosporidium oocysts included cattle age class, 24 h precipitation, and cumulative seasonal precipitation, but not percent slope, lot acreage, cattle stocking number, or cattle density. Vegetated buffer strips and straw mulch application significantly reduced the protozoal concentrations and loads in storm runoff, while cattle exclusion and removal of manure did not. The study findings suggest that BMPs such as vegetated buffer strips and straw mulch application, especially when placed near calf areas, will reduce environmental loading of fecal protozoa and improve stormwater quality. These findings are assisting working dairies in their efforts to improve farm and ecosystem health along the California coast.     

WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

When apologizing hurts: Felt transgression and restoration efforts

Apologizing is important for conflict resolution and relationship reconciliation, yet apologies often fail to restore the damaged relationship. While much research has been devoted to investigating the victims' reactions upon receiving an apology, in this paper, we adopt an apologizer-centric approach and explore the phenomenon of apologizing with no felt transgression (vis-à-vis when there is felt transgression) along with its affective and reconciliation outcomes for the apologizer. Based on Appraisal Tendency Framework, we predict that apologizing with no felt transgression will lead to reduced guilt and increased anger in the apologizer, which will result in a decreased level of their restoration efforts towards the victim. In addition, we further hypothesize about the role of organizational conflict cultures in influencing the relationship between apologizing and restoration efforts via guilt and anger. Study 1 uses a micro-narrative procedure and an inductive data analysis approach to demonstrate the varied situations and motivations of employees apologizing with (no) felt transgression, Study 2 utilizes an experimental design to examine the mediation effect, and Study 3 employs the critical incident technique to test our whole research model. Our hypotheses were largely supported across our studies. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.