Exploring the spatial dimension of community-level flood risk perception: a cognitive mapping approach

Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environment. Cognitive maps, portraying a spatial representation of an individual’s environmental perception, can be aggregated to gain insight into the collective environmental perception of groups and populations. This paper uses cognitive mapping techniques to examine one aspect of environmental perception, flood risk perception, within a residential population (n?=?305). Flood risk perception was examined for the whole sample and six subgroup pairs. Using subgroups allowed examination of how factors previously shown to influence flood risk perception influence the cognitive map production in this population. We use a novel technique (slope analysis) to examine how the population’s perception of flood risk compares with expert assessments of flood risk, and compare the results of this novel technique with a commonly used cognitive map analysis technique (majority threshold method). Both methods identify areas where there is consensus within the population as to which areas are at risk of flooding. However, slope analysis usefully identifies areas where the population’s perception of flood risk lacks consensus, and is at odds with expert assessments of flood risk, without the loss of information inherent in the majority threshold method. Thus, this technique provides a novel approach to studies of environmental perception that can be widely applied within many fields.     

Risk-adequate motor underwriting of automated vehicles: a qualitative evaluation using German focus groups

The advent of automated vehicles is already taking place and will significantly disrupt the motor insurance industry. The shift from the human driver to the system as the driver cannot be reflected in the current insurance risk assessment. This call for an amendment of the insurance underwriting was discussed with German experts from both the primary insurance and reinsurance sector with their professional background on motor insurance. Based on the findings, we propose an alternative method to underwrite automated vehicles of level 4 & 5 using an enhanced telematics approach which considers new risk categories such as systems used and the transformed role of the driver as the general user of the automated vehicle.

     

Jumps in Euribor and the effect of ECB monetary policy announcements

The main tool that the ECB uses to influence monetary policy is through the short-term refinancing rate, a change in the short-term interest rate can in turn cause the whole yield curve to shift. In addition to central bank announcements, interbank rates such as Euribor are also influenced by, forward guidance from the ECB, various macroeconomic events, liquidity in the money markets and the perceived credit worthiness of financial institutions. Forward rates are usually used by policy makers and market practitioners to examine expectations, but options provide additional information about the uncertainty of these expectations, particularly future jump expectations. This research examines the jump characteristics of the 3-month Euribor futures contract and its corresponding futures option contracts using both a jump diffusion model with a Bernoulli jump distribution and option-implied parameters using a jump diffusion process with Poisson distribute. We find that both the Bernoulli jump analysis of historical data and implied jump diffusion model succinctly capture diffusion volatility, jumps and jump size. Using a regression analysis to examine the effect of ECB refinancing rate monetary policy announcements on the 3-month Euribor and the associated jump parameters, we find a significant relationship between ECB announcements and the probability of a jump in Euribor. Regression coefficients on the implied jump amplitude parameters suggest that the market correctly anticipates the direction of the rate announcement suggesting option-implied jump parameters can predict, to some extent, ECB announcements. However, our results also show that there is significant uncertainty before the announcements, and this implies that monetary policy communication is not having the full desired effect.     

Ecological engineering with high diversity vegetation patches enhances bird activity and ecosystem services in Philippine rice fields

Regional Environmental Change - This study examines the potential for ecological engineering to enhance the beneficial ecosystem services provided by birds in tropical rice fields. Bird activities...