A SEMI-DISTRIBUTED ADAPTIVE MODEL FOR REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km², the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model     

Organochlorine contamination in the Great Crested Grebe (Podiceps cristatus): effects on eggshell thickness and egg steroid levels

Eggs of the Great Crested Grebe (Podiceps cristatus) were collected from a breeding area on Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy) from 2001 to 2005 in the vicinity of a p,p'-DDT manufacturer, whose production was stopped in 1996. DDT homologue and PCB congener levels were determined and compared to levels in eggs collected from other breeding areas on Lake Maggiore and in a presumably less contaminated area on Lake Garda. Although Lake Garda eggs on average possessed a lower level of p,p'-DDE than Lake Maggiore eggs, they had significantly higher levels of PCBs and could not be used as a reference population for the measurement of eggshell thickness. Nevertheless, a negative linear relationship was found between p,p'-DDE concentration and eggshell thickness for eggs collected from both lakes, indicating a possible causal relationship. Testosterone and 17beta-estradiol concentrations were also determined for eggs collected from both lakes in 2004. Average concentrations of both hormones were the lowest in eggs from Lake Maggiore; however, the very high variability within broods did not result in any significant difference between the lakes.