Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Water and sustainable development

In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building.     

Surveillance for adverse health effects following a chemical release in west virginia

On 11 August 1985, a large inadvertent release occurred from a chemical manufacturing plant in Institute, West Virginia. The emission was related to overheating of a storage tank that contained chemicals for the production of aldicarb, a cholinesterase inhibiting pesticide. As a result of this emission, 136 persons were treated in five local emergency rooms, 29 of whom were hospitalized for one or more days, mostly for observation. No fatalities resulted. Interviews with treated persons and non-treated community residents confirmed that the health effects were transient and compatible with exposure to irritating vapors rather than with exposure to methyl isocyanate (a chemical used in the process) or to aldicarb. Only 5% of the treated persons and 5% of the community residents surveyed were adequately warned of the emission by the plant siren. Because persons in the nearby community are potentially vulnerable to chemical injury, we recommend the development of an improved warning system, a formal evacuation procedure, and other measures to limit exposure of persons in this area in the event of a future release.     

Suggested protocol for collecting, handling and preparing peat cores and peat samples for physical, chemical, mineralogical and isotopic analyses

For detailed reconstructions of atmospheric metal deposition using peat cores from bogs, a comprehensive protocol for working with peat cores is proposed. The first step is to locate and determine suitable sampling sites in accordance with the principal goal of the study, the period of time of interest and the precision required. Using the state of the art procedures and field equipment, peat cores are collected in such a way as to provide high quality records for paleoenvironmental study. Pertinent field observations gathered during the fieldwork are recorded in a field report. Cores are kept frozen at -18 degree C until they can be prepared in the laboratory. Frozen peat cores are precisely cut into 1 cm slices using a stainless steel band saw with stainless steel blades. The outside edges of each slice are removed using a titanium knife to avoid any possible contamination which might have occurred during the sampling and handling stage. Each slice is split, with one-half kept frozen for future studies (archived), and the other half further subdivided for physical, chemical, and mineralogical analyses. Physical parameters such as ash and water contents, the bulk density and the degree of decomposition of the peat are determined using established methods. A subsample is dried overnight at 105 degree C in a drying oven and milled in a centrifugal mill with titanium sieve. Prior to any expensive and time consuming chemical procedures and analyses, the resulting powdered samples, after manual homogenisation, are measured for more than twenty-two major and trace elements using non-destructive X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) methods. This approach provides lots of valuable geochemical data which documents the natural geochemical processes which occur in the peat profiles and their possible effect on the trace metal profiles. The development, evaluation and use of peat cores from bogs as archives of high-resolution records of atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and trace elements have led to the development of many analytical procedures which now permit the measurement of a wide range of elements in peat samples such as lead and lead isotope ratios, mercury, arsenic, antimony, silver, molybdenum, thorium, uranium, rare earth elements. Radiometric methods (the carbon bomb pulse of (14)C, (210)Pb and conventional (14)C dating) are combined to allow reliable age-depth models to be reconstructed for each peat profile.     

Integration of modeling,monitoring and laboratory observation to determine reasons for air quality violations

An attempt was made to explain ambient air quality violations in the vicinity of industrial plants. Micrometeorology, diffusion calculaations, ambient readings, and plant engineering data are all taken into consideration to ascertain whether the plant is or is not the principal offender.Scrutiny of hi-vol filters using scanning electron microscopy for particle size analysis and particle chemical make-up as an assessment technique is also described.Case histories using the above analytical techniques are discussed.Presented at the 16th National Conference on Energy and the Environment, May 23, 1979     

monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the belted kingfisher (ceryle alcyon)

The belted kingfisher (Ceryle alcyon), acommon piscivore in the eastern United States, hasbecome a common endpoint in ecological riskassessments (ERA) because of their high consumptionof potentially contaminated aquatic prey. Whilebioaccumulation data and biosurveys may be used tosupport conclusions of ERAs for kingfishers, thereare currently no published data on contaminantconcentrations in kingfishers. Additionally,methods available for collecting biological samples(e.g., feathers, eggs, food debris, etc.) fromkingfisher burrows can be detrimental to thereproductive success of the birds. We present amethod for obtaining samples from burrows during orfollowing the nesting season. The method wasapplied to kingfisher burrows on the Oak RidgeReservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee. Feathers,eggshells, and nestlings were collected from burrows and analyzed. In addition, carcasses ofthree adult kingfishers found dead on the ORR wereanalyzed. Metals and radionuclides were accumulatedby both juvenile and adult birds. Body burdens ofcadmium, lead, and cesium-137 in adult birds were belowlevels associated with toxicity. Concentrations of selenium and mercury were observed at potentiallytoxic levels. Contaminants in eggshells andnestling feathers indicate exposure, however, thereis insufficient information to evaluate thetoxicological significance of this contamination.National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed for the U.S. Department of Energy by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corp. under contract DE-AC05-96OR22464     

对多氯联苯的全球分馏加以量化

由于有广泛的理化特性,多氯联苯(PCBs)在全球分馏假设求导中担任着重要角色,这种假设预测持久性有机污染混合物的组成随纬度产生变化.最新的历史排放估计、内部一致的特性数据集和按气候带平均的全球命运和运输模型结合在一起允许把PCBs所经历的成分转移作为环境区划、纬度和时间的一个函数的定量调查.模型模拟复制出纬度越高在大气和土壤中所观察到的较轻PCB同类物的相对丰度就越高,并量化了分割、持久性和排放在建立PCB格局过程中的相对重要性.组成变化不仅与倒转的浓度剖面一致(北极区浓度高于低纬度区)也与全球分馏一致,但只与向北转移的全球PCB存量的较小部分一致.