佳木斯台形变观测对东北地区几次浅震“场兆”异常的探讨

大地震在主破裂前往往行成地壳变形,高应力作用下进入峰值后的变形阶段,反映到地倾斜观测日均值曲线上,表现为固体潮形变趋势异常,这些异常能否指示远距离的地震,近年来不少研究者发现,远场前兆往往出现在对应力、应变变化反应灵敏的特殊构造部位。佳木斯台可能处于这种特殊的构造部位,对东北地区浅源地震短期前兆异常“场兆”的趋势性变化具有一定的意义。     

Recent Changes in Stream Flashiness and Flooding,and Effects of Flood Management in North Carolina and Virginia

The southeastern United States has undergone anthropogenic changes in landscape structure, with the potential to increase (e.g., urbanization) and decrease (e.g., reservoir construction) stream flashiness and flooding. Assessment of the outcome of such change can provide insight into the efficacy of current strategies and policies to manage water resources. We (1) examined trends in precipitation, floods, and stream flashiness and (2) assessed the relative influence of land cover and flow‐regulating features (e.g., best management practices and artificial water bodies) on stream flashiness from 1991 to 2013. We found mean annual precipitation decreased, which coincided with decreasing trends in floods. In contrast, stream flashiness, overall, showed an increasing trend during the period of study. However, upon closer examination, 20 watersheds showed stable stream flashiness, whereas 5 increased and 6 decreased in flashiness. Urban watersheds were among those that increased or decreased in flashiness. Watersheds that increased in stream flashiness gained more urban cover, lost more forested cover and had fewer best management practices installed than urban watersheds that decreased in stream flashiness. We found best management practices are more effective than artificial water bodies in regulating flashy floods. Flashiness index is a valuable and straightforward metric to characterize changes in streamflow and help to assess the efficacy of management interventions.     

Biological Assessment of Aquaculture Effects on Effluent-Receiving Streams in Ghana Using Structural and Functional Composition of Fish and Macroinvertebrate Assemblages

Biological assessment of aquatic ecosystems is widely employed as an alternative or complement to chemical and toxicity testing due to numerous advantages of using biota to determine ecosystem condition. These advantages, especially to developing countries, include the relatively low cost and technical requirements. This study was conducted to determine the biological impacts of aquaculture operations on effluent-receiving streams in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. We collected water, fish and benthic macroinvertebrate samples from 12 aquaculture effluent-receiving streams upstream and downstream of fish farms and 12 reference streams between May and August of 2009, and then calculated structural and functional metrics for biotic assemblages. Fish species with non-guarding mode of reproduction were more abundant in reference streams than downstream (P?=?0.0214) and upstream (P?=?0.0251), and sand-detritus spawning fish were less predominant in reference stream than upstream (P?=?0.0222) and marginally less in downstream locations (P?=?0.0539). A possible subsidy-stress response of macroinvertebrate family richness and abundance was also observed, with nutrient (nitrogen) augmentation from aquaculture and other farming activities likely. Generally, there were no, or only marginal differences among locations downstream and upstream of fish farms and in reference streams in terms of several other biotic metrics considered. Therefore, the scale of impact in the future will depend not only on the management of nutrient augmentation from pond effluents, but also on the consideration of nutrient discharges from other industries like fruit and vegetable farming within the study area.     

COST EFFECTIVENESS OF VEGETATIVE FILTER STRIPS AND INSTREAM HALF‐LOGS FOR ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of cost effectiveness (CE) analysis of vegetative filter strips (VFS) and instream half‐logs as tools for recovering scores on a fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) in the upper Wabash River watershed (UW) in Indiana. Three assumptions were made about recovery time for IBI scores (5,15, and 30 years) and social discount rates (1, 3, and 5 percent), which were tested for sensitivity of the estimated CE ratios. Effectiveness of VFS was estimated using fish IBIs and riparian forest cover from 49 first‐order to fifth‐order stream reaches. Half‐log structures had been installed for approximately two years in the UW prior to the study and provided a basis for estimates of cost and maintenance. Cost effectiveness ratios for VFS decreased from $387 to $277 per 100 m for a 1 percent increase in IBI scores from first‐to fifth‐order streams with 3 percent discount and 30‐year recovery. This cost weighted by proportion of stream orders was $360. The ratio decreased with decreasing time of recovery and discount rate. Based on installation costs and an assumption of equal recovery rates, half‐logs were two‐thirds to one‐half as cost‐effective as VFS. Half‐logs would be a cost‐effective supplement to VFS in low order streams if they can be proven to recover IBI scores faster than VFS do. This study provides baseline data and a framework for planning and determining the cost of stream restoration.     

Spatial-Scale Effects on Relative Importance of Physical Habitat Predictors of Stream Health

A common theme in recent landscape studies is the comparison of riparian and watershed land use as predictors of stream health. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of reach-scale habitat and remotely assessed watershed-scale habitat as predictors of stream health over varying spatial extents. Stream health was measured with scores on a fish index of biotic integrity (IBI) using data from 95 stream reaches in the Eastern Corn Belt Plain (ECBP) ecoregion of Indiana. Watersheds hierarchically nested within the ecoregion were used to regroup sampling locations to represent varying spatial extents. Reach habitat was represented by metrics of a qualitative habitat evaluation index, whereas watershed variables were represented by riparian forest, geomorphology, and hydrologic indices. The importance of reach- versus watershed-scale variables was measured by multiple regression model adjusted-R² and best subset comparisons in the general linear statistical framework. Watershed models had adjusted-R² ranging from 0.25 to 0.93 and reach models had adjusted-R² ranging from 0.09 to 0.86. Better-fitting models were associated with smaller spatial extents. Watershed models explained about 15% more variation in IBI scores than reach models on average. Variety of surficial geology contributed to decline in model predictive power. Results should be interpreted bearing in mind that reach habitat was qualitatively measured and only fish assemblages were used to measure stream health. Riparian forest and length-slope (LS) factor were the most important watershed-scale variables and mostly positively correlated with IBI scores, whereas substrate and riffle-pool quality were the important reach-scale variables in the ECBP.     

Derivative mine valuation: strategic investment decisions in competitive markets

Successful management in competitive markets requires evaluation methods that respond to global market dynamics and provide investors with relevant information to make strategic investment decisions. These strategic decisions include decisions on investment timing, feasibility study and risk management and mine operating options. Conventional methods do not have the built-in capabilities to help investors handle these strategic issues. Advances in modern finance have had profound impacts on financial markets for options, futures and collaterized securities and offer appropriate tools in solving these problems. In this paper, the authors have extended the Brennan and Schwartz mineral resource model to develop the derivative mine valuation method based on the dynamic arbitrage theory. A copper mining venture has been evaluated using the derivative mine valuation and conventional methods. The results show that the derivative mine valuation method allows investors to maximize the venture's market value by exercising these strategic options.