Sustainable development conflict over freeway construction

Environmental disputes arise due to opposing views of various groups about their environmental concerns and their economic or developmental interests. Development and protection of the environment constitute two main contradictory objectives within the sustainable development paradigm, which are often in conflict. The decision support system, GMCR II, which implements the graph model for conflict resolution, is employed to model and analyze an environmental dispute arising over the construction of a new freeway between the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the city of Chalous located in the north of the country. This study demonstrates that the graph model for conflict resolution can be used as a methodology to promote a reasonable balance between economic development and environmental protection from a strategic viewpoint. In addition to systematically modelling the conflict by putting the existing information into proper perspective, it is shown how conflict analysis can be used for comparing alternative scenarios and predicting possible future outcomes. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Public participation in municipal solid waste source-separated collection in Guilin,China: status and influencing factors

Currently, China is facing critical problems regarding the management of municipal solid waste (MSW). The failure of existing pilot programs in implementing MSW source-separated collection highlights the need to analyze the factors significantly influencing public participation in this activity. To this end, a comprehensive analysis of MSW source-separated collection in Guilin, which is representative of wider areas located in inland China and with a GDP around the national average, was conducted. The research consisted of in-person interviews involving a questionnaire and theoretical analyses in terms of public perception, public awareness, public attitude, and willingness to pay. The analytical results identify the status of waste source-separated collection and influencing factors in implementation, and provides exercisable suggestions for decision makers in both China and more generally in industrializing countries to design promotion programs and education campaigns.     

COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE ENGINEERING DESIGNS1

ABSTRACT: Procedures are presented for comparing and evaluating alternative engineering designs for a particular water resources project. By using certain aspects of fuzzy set theory, it is possible to introduce both quantitative and qualitative considerations into the decisionmaking process. In addition, the viewpoints of the various interest groups involved with the water resources development can be realistically incorporated by the evaluation techniques for the alternative designs. Methods are given for eliminating undesirable alternatives and thereby obtaining a reduced set of possible feasible solutions to the problem. Because of the flexibility of the evaluation methods, the viable alternatives should not only satisfy economical, technical. environmental and other types of constraints, but these possible solutions should be politically feasible as well. A method is formulated for checking the sensitivity of the feasible results with respect to the factors that are considered in the analysis.     

GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSES OF ENFORCEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS AND REGULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Game-theoretic models are developed for describing and analyzing the inspection and enforcement process, especially as it relates to environmental laws and regulations in North America. Based on these models, systems using irrevocable control orders can be compared to those relying on court determination of guilt and punishment. The cost-effectiveness of environmental enforcement can be systematically assessed in terms of factors such as the private gains for violators, the costs of inspection, penalties, and the social value of deterring violations. The policy implications of the analysis, especially with reference to environmental protection, are emphasized.     

POLITICAL RESOLUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS1

ABSTRACT Many water resources management problems ultimately require a political decision in order to formulate a course of action to follow. Metagame analysis is a nonquantitative technique that can model the decision-making process and is used in this article to arrive at a politically feasible solution to a typical water pollution problem. The output from the linear programming formulation of the problem is used as input to the “political” metagame analysis. This allows a solution to the pollution conflict that is not only physically and economically feasible according to the linear programming analysis, but politically feasible as well.     

Assessment of environmental impacts part two: Data collection

Intervention analysis is a relatively new branch of time series analysis. The power of this technique, which gives the probability that changes in mean level can be distinguished from natural data variability, is quite sensitive to the way the data are collected. The principal independent variables influenced by the data collection design are overall sample size, sampling frequency, and the relative length of record before the occurrence of the event (intervention) that is postulated to have caused a change in mean process level.For three of the four models investigated, data should be collected so that the post-intervention record is substantially longer than the pre-intervention record. This is in conflict with the intuitive approach, which would be to collect equal amounts of data before and after the intervention. The threshold (minimum) level of change that can be detected is quite high unless sample sizes of at least 50 and preferably 100 are available; this minimum level is dependent on the complexity of the model required to describe the response of the process mean to the intervention. More complex models tend to require larger sample sizes for the same threshold detectable change level.Uniformity of sampling frequency is a key consideration. Environmental data collection programs have not historically been oriented toward data analysis using time series techniques, thus eliminating a potentially powerful tool from use in many environmental assessment applications.     

Intervention analysis in environmental engineering

Intervention analysis techniques are described for identifying and statistically modelling trends which may be present in water quality time series. At the exploratory data analysis stage, simple graphical and modelling methods can be employed for visually detecting and examining trends in a time series caused by one or more external interventions. For instance, a plot of a robust locally weighted regression smooth through a graph of the observations over time may reveal trends and other interesting statistical properties contained in the time series. In addition, statistical tests, such as different versions of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, can be used to detect the presence of trends caused by unknown or known external interventions. To characterize rigorously and estimate trends which may be known in advance or else detected using exploratory data analysis studies, different parametric methods can be utilized at the confirmatory data analysis stage. Specifically, the time series modelling approach to intervention analysis can be employed to estimate the magnitudes of the changes in the mean level of the series due to the interventions. Particular types of regression models can also be used for estimating trends, especially when there are many missing observations. To demonstrate how intervention analysis methods can be effectively used in environmental impact assessment, representative applications to water quality time series are presented.Invited Paper for Presentation at The Workshop on Statistical Methods for the Assessment of Point Source Pollution, The Canada Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, Ontario, Canada, L7R 4A6, September 12–14, 1988.     

MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Recent developments in multiple objective decision making methods presented in the upcoming sequence of research papers are evaluated and compared with respect to their usefulness in addressing challenging problems in water resources management. Because many of the decision making techniques originated in the field of operational research, the historical evolution of this field is outlined and the current need for developing a wide range of techniques for employment in strategic decision making is pointed out. Informative attributes for classifying decision making techniques are given to allow a practitioner to select decision aids that can best model the key characteristics of the particular problems under study. By systematically applying a wide variety of multiple objective decision making techniques to many different kinds of water resources problems, the authors of the papers clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing these methods for assisting in making both tactical and strategic decisions in water resources management.     

MODELING HYDROLOGIC TIME SERIES FROM THE ARCTIC1

The general intervention model is applied to hydrologic and meteorologjc time series from the Canadian Arctic. The authors show how the model is able to account for environmental interventions, missing observations in the data, changes in data collection procedures, the effects of external inputs, as well as seasonality and autocorrelation. Methods for identifying transfer functions by making use of a physical understanding of the processes involved are demonstrated and sample applications of the general intervention model to Arctic data are shown.