Critical considerations for future action during the second commitment period: A small islands' perspective

If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated.     

Historical eutrophication in a river-estuary complex in mid-coast Maine.

European settlement of New England brought about a novel disturbance regime that impacted rivers and estuaries through overfishing, deforestation, dams, and water pollution. The negative consequences of these activities intensified with industrialization in the 19th and 20th centuries, often resulting in ecosystem degradation. Since environmental legislation was implemented in the 1970s, improvement in water quality has been tangible and widespread; however, ecological recovery can require substantial amounts of time and may never be complete. To document the natural baseline conditions and investigate the recovery of a severely degraded river-estuary complex in mid-coast Maine, we examined diatoms, pollen, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, stable isotopes, total phosphorus, biogenic silica, and trace metals in intertidal sediments and established a chronology with 14C, 210Pb, and indicator pollen horizons. Both climate variability and human effects were evident in the sedimentary record of Merrymeeting Bay, the freshwater tidal portion of the Kennebec estuary. Natural climate variability was apparent in an episode of high sedimentation and altered diatom abundance during the 12th and 13th centuries and in changing pollen abundances between the 16th and 19th centuries, indicative of regional cooling. During the 18th century, colonial land clearance began an era of high sedimentation and eutrophication that strongly intensified with industrialization during the late 19th and 20th centuries. Improvements in water quality over the past 30 years in response to environmental regulation had little effect on ecosystem recovery as represented by the sedimentary record. Diatom composition and productivity and high fluxes of organic C, total P, and biogenic Si in recent sediments indicate that rates of nutrient loading remain high. These environmental proxies imply that aquatic productivity in Merrymeeting Bay was originally nutrient limited and water clarity high, relative to today. Further recovery may require more stringent regulation of nutrient inputs from industrial and municipal point sources. This historical study can contribute to public debate about the environmental management of this unusual river-estuary complex by describing its long-term natural baseline, thereby illustrating the upper limit of its potential for recovery.     

Disaster risk insurance and catastrophe models in risk‐prone small Caribbean islands

Post‐catastrophe recovery and financial liquidity have long challenged small Caribbean islands. These states are vulnerable to multifarious natural hazards that often cause considerable socioeconomic dislocation. Such events inflict heavy losses on businesses and households, and significantly disrupt all aspects of government operations. After Hurricane Ivan devastated the economies of some islands in September 2004—with estimated losses of as much as 200 per cent of gross domestic product in some cases—regional governments, aided by the World Bank and international donors, approved the creation of a regional catastrophe insurance scheme. This parametric‐based mechanism is underpinned by derivatives‐based catastrophe modelling whose outputs determine policy triggers and pay outs. Hazard models, particularly catastrophe models, are not widely accepted as yet. Despite recent advancements, major concerns have rendered them peripheral tools for many establishments. This paper reviews the region's vulnerabilities and examines constraints on the application of these models and suggests a means of improving their efficacy and acceptability.     

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

This contribution presents an assessment of the potential vulnerabilities to climate variability and change (CV & C) of the critical transportation infrastructure of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on potential operational disruptions and coastal inundation forced by CV & C on four coastal international airports and four seaports in Jamaica and Saint Lucia which are critical facilitators of international connectivity and socioeconomic development. Impact assessments have been carried out under climatic conditions forced by a 1.5 °C specific warming level (SWL) above pre-industrial levels, as well as for different emission scenarios and time periods in the twenty-first century. Disruptions and increasing costs due to, e.g., more frequent exceedance of high temperature thresholds that could impede transport operations are predicted, even under the 1.5 °C SWL, advocated by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and reflected as an aspirational goal in the Paris Climate Agreement. Dynamic modeling of the coastal inundation under different return periods of projected extreme sea levels (ESLs) indicates that the examined airports and seaports will face increasing coastal inundation during the century. Inundation is projected for the airport runways of some of the examined international airports and most of the seaports, even from the 100-year extreme sea level under 1.5 °C SWL. In the absence of effective technical adaptation measures, both operational disruptions and coastal inundation are projected to increasingly affect all examined assets over the course of the century.     

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems: cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.