A review of the likely causal pathways relating the reduced density of breeding dippers Cinclus cinclus to the acidification of upland streams

Previous work has shown that the breeding density of a bird characteristic of upland streams, the dipper Cinclus cinclus, is markedly reduced at low pH in both Wales and Scotland. Populations also declined when streams became more acidic. Evidence of causal explanation for these relationships is that: (1) Food quantity is reduced in acidic streams, and important prey, including those rich in calcium, are scarce; (2) Blood chemistry in pre-breeding birds differs between acid and circumneutral streams, with plasma calcium reduced in those breeding at low pH. Skeletal sources of calcium are probably limited; (3) The time spent foraging by pre-breeding birds on acidic streams is markedly increased, even though overall energy costs on acidic and circumneutral streams are similar. Body condition is inferior to birds on circumneutral streams; (4) Egg laying is significantly delayed on acidic streams irrespective of an effect on laying of altitude, and clutch and brood sizes are significantly reduced; (5) Eggs are lighter and shells thinner at low pH; (6) Chick growth is reduced at low pH; (7) Contamination by heavy metals and persistent organochlorines is low in the populations on acidic streams and cannot explain the impaired breeding performance. None of these features can exclude the possibilities that acidic streams either hold populations of poor quality birds, which show the above features, or that acidity affects the breeding ecology of all dippers that attempt to breed at low pH. The qualitative outcome of these two alternatives is identical.     

Using diatoms as quality indicators for a newly-formed urban lake and its catchment

Periphytic diatoms were studied to evaluate the water quality of a newly created lake, formed by the enclosure of the formerly tidal Cardiff Bay (Wales, UK), and the effects of two inflowing rivers which drain densely populated and industrialised catchments. Seven sites in Cardiff Bay and two locations on the inflowing rivers were monitored for diatoms and water chemistry over 2 years. Water quality was assessed using a revised UK trophic diatom index (TDI) and new methods to determine ecological quality ratios and ecological status classes as required by the EU Water Framework Directive. Diatom assemblages reflected spatiotemporal variations in environmental conditions between the rivers and Cardiff Bay and within the bay. In the bay, diatoms reflected differences in river quality and possibly local pollution in certain areas of the lake. High values of the TDI indicated eutrophic to hypertrophic conditions in both rivers and in the bay and diatoms indicated poor ecological status.     

Long-term change in the suitability of welsh streams for dippers Cinclus cinclus as a result of acidification and recovery: a modelling study

Using a recognized and widely used hydrochemical model, MAGIC, long-term changes in acidity were simulated at 104 sites in the acid sensitive region of upland Wales. Conditions were modelled in the future (2010) under different reductions in sulphate deposition from 0 to 90% of 1984 values. Chemical output from the model was used to simulate change in the chemical suitability of streams for a species of river bird, the Dipper Cinclus cinclus, known to be affected by acidification According to simulations, only reductions in sulphate deposition by over 50% of 1984 levels prevented decline in the number of streams chemically suitable for Dippers. Greater reductions in deposition in the model permitted some recovery except where conifer forestry occupied acid sensitive catchments. There are several uncertainties with the models in their present form.     

Effects of point-source PCB contamination on breeding performance and post-fledging survival in the dipper Cinclus cinclus

Despite widespread information on the incidence and biochemical effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in birds, field studies of effects on population processes are still scarce. This is particularly so in passerines. We therefore assessed breeding performance and post-fledging survival in dippers, Cinclus cinclus, breeding along the Afon Mule, a Welsh river where previous work indicated locally elevated PCB concentrations. We hypothesised that marked toxicological effects, including endocrine disruption, would be detectable as altered clutch-size, hatching success, nest success, brood-size, post-fledging survival or recruitment to the breeding population. Congener-specific analysis of PCBs in failed and deserted dipper eggs during 1990-93 revealed that geometric mean concentrations were four to 20 times higher along the Mule than elsewhere in Wales, UK. PCB signatures also varied highly significantly from other locations, with congeners 138, 153 and 180 dominant at the contaminated site, but 118 or 170 more frequent in eggs elsewhere. Subsequent analysis of surface runoff confirmed a small breaker's yard as a point source. Neither laying dates, clutch-sizes, brood-sizes, nest failure nor hatching failure along the contaminated Mule (n=46 breeding attempts and 218 eggs) differed significantly from dippers along adjacent reference rivers (n=82 breeding attempts and 315 eggs) or Welsh rivers as a whole (n=332 breeding attempts and 1534 eggs). Subsequent recaptures of breeding dippers ringed initially as nestlings were nearly identical between the Mule (7.7% of 182 nestlings), the reference set (7.5% of 323 nestlings) and all other Welsh rivers (7.3% of 2821 nestlings). These data illustrate the value of congener-specific analysis of bird's eggs in indicating local PCB sources. The data show also that PCBs can occur in dipper eggs at total concentrations of 0.49 (geometric mean)-1.29 (upper quartile) microg g(-1) wet mass without effects on breeding performance and survival. These values are below those at which biochemical or reproductive effects on other passerines have been detected, but above current concentrations in any other population of European dippers for which PCB data are available. Population effects by PCBs on European dippers are therefore unlikely. Survivors from locally contaminated sites like that in our study might allow field assessments of second-generation effects on breeding performance in wild birds that have developed under PCB exposure.     

Comparing discriminant analysis, neural networks and logistic regression for predicting species distributions: a case study with a Himalayan river bird

We assessed the occurrence of a common river bird, the Plumbeous Redstart Rhyacornis fuliginosus, along 180 independent streams in the Indian and Nepali Himalaya. We then compared the performance of multiple discrimant analysis (MDA), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting this species’ presence or absence from 32 variables describing stream altitude, slope, habitat structure, chemistry and invertebrate abundance. Using the entire data (=training set) and a threshold for accepting presence in ANN and LR set to P≥0.5, ANN correctly classified marginally more cases (88%) than either LR (83%) or MDA (84%). Model performance was assessed from two methods of data partitioning. In a ‘leave-one-out’ approach, LR correctly predicted more cases (82%) than MDA (73%) or ANN (69%). However, in a holdout procedure, all the methods performed similarly (73–75%). All methods predicted true absence (i.e. specificity in holdout: 81–85%) better than true presence (i.e. sensitivity: 57–60%). These effects reflect species’ prevalence (=frequency of occurrence), but are seldom considered in distribution modelling. Despite occurring at only 36% of the sites, Plumbeous Redstarts are one of the most common Himalayan river birds, and problems will be greater with less common species. Both LR and ANN require an arbitrary threshold probability (often P=0.5) at which to accept species presence from model prediction. Simulations involving varied prevalence revealed that LR was particularly sensitive to threshold effects. ROC plots (received operating characteristic) were therefore used to compare model performance on test data at a range of thresholds; LR always outperformed ANN. This case study supports the need to test species’ distribution models with independent data, and to use a range of criteria in assessing model performance. ANN do not yet have major advantages over conventional multivariate methods for assessing bird distributions. LR and MDA were both more efficient in the use of computer time than ANN, and also more straightforward in providing testable hypotheses about environmental effects on occurrence. However, LR was apparently subject to chance significant effects from explanatory variables, emphasising the well-known risks of models based purely on correlative data.     

Evolving social influence in large populations

Darwinian studies of collective human behaviour, which deal fluently with change and are grounded in the details of social influence among individuals, have much to offer “social” models from the physical sciences which have elegant statistical regularities. Although Darwinian evolution is often associated with selection and adaptation, “neutral” models of drift are equally relevant. Building on established neutral models, we present a general, yet highly parsimonious, stochastic model, which generates an entire family of real-world, right-skew socio-economic distributions, including exponential, winner-take-all, power law tails of varying exponents, and power laws across the whole data. The widely used Barabási and Albert (1999) Science 286: 509-512 “B-A” model of preferential attachment is a special case of this general model. In addition, the model produces the continuous turnover observed empirically within these distributions. Previous preferential attachment models have generated specific distributions with turnover using arbitrary add-on rules, but turnover is an inherent feature of our model. The model also replicates an intriguing new relationship, observed across a range of empirical studies, between the power law exponent and the proportion of data represented in the distribution.     

Restoring acidified streams in upland Wales: a modelling comparison of the chemical and biological effects of liming and reduced sulphate deposition

Increasing emphasis is being placed on the restoration of surface waters which have been affected by acidification. Amongst the possible strategies are management of the causes, by reducing acidic deposition, and management of the symptoms, by treating affected areas with basic material such as limestone. In few cases have there been comparisons of the likely effect of these two strategies on surface water chemistry and ecology, although there is widespread belief that the two are similar in outcome. At present, only a modelling approach permits such a comparison. This paper describes chemical and biological responses of three Welsh streams whose catchments were limed experimentally in 1987-1988 as part of the Llyn Brianne project. Actual changes are compared with simulated changes which occur following reduced acid deposition according to the hydrochemical model, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwaters in Catchments). The results indicate that liming and 90% reduction in sulphate deposition reduce concentrations of toxic aluminium to similar levels. However, calcium concentrations and pH were increased by liming to values which were high by comparison with conditions simulated at low acid deposition, either in the past or future. Trout density increased in two of the streams following liming to levels similar to those simulated under low acid deposition. By contrast, the aquatic invertebrate fauna changed after liming so that streams acquired species typical of higher calcium concentrations than those simulated under low acid deposition. Species characteristic of 'soft water' communities were apparently lost, although more data are required to separate treatment effects from random change in the longer term. The 'soft water' community also declined in the model as a result of acidification, indicating that both liming and acid deposition resulted in a different faunal community from that prior to acidification. The results support those who conclude that liming is suitable for the restoration or protection of a fishery, but indicate that there may be other ramifications, for example to conservation, which must be considered when liming is implemented. However, the simulation of biological conditions under low acid deposition involves extrapolation from the initial data base. Further data are now required to assess empirically the likely biological character of British streams which have low base cation concentrations unaffected by acid deposition.     

Patterns of contamination by organochlorines and mercury in the eggs of two river passerines in Britain and Ireland with reference to individual PCB congeners

Unhatched eggs were collected in 1988 and 1990 from nests of the Eurasian Dipper Cinclus cinclus and the Grey Wagtail Motacilla cinerea in Wales, eastern Scotland and south-western Ireland. Mercury concentrations in Dipper eggs (geometric means 0.45-0.91 ppm (microg g(-1)) dry mass) were significantly lower in eastern Scotland than in either south-western Ireland or Wales, where the incidence of detectable residues increased markedly between 1988 (2% of eggs) and 1990 (69%). By contrast, DDE (geometric means 0.63-3.54 ppm in lipid), TDE (<0.01-1.80 ppm), DDT (<0.01-0.65 ppm), total PCBs (3.99-10.47 ppm), HEOD (0.39-0.61 ppm) and HCB (0.02-0.13 ppm) were all significantly higher in Scottish eggs than others. Around 33-46% of the total PCB burden in Dipper and Grey Wagtail eggs could be accounted for by six congeners (IUPAC numbers 118, 180, 101, 153, 138 and 170). Amongst these attributable PCBs, Dipper eggs from eastern Scotland were dominated by congener 153 (2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl), whilst Welsh and Irish eggs were dominated by congener 118 (2,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl). With the latter exception, all the individual congeners were found at significantly higher concentrations in Scottish eggs than others. Grey Wagtail eggs were dominated by congeners 118 and 101 (2,2,4,5,5'-pentachlorobiphenyl). In general, these congeners are common, widespread, and dominant components in the eggs of other wild birds for which data are available. Consistent with the low to medium levels of contaminants found in Dipper eggs, there was only slight evidence of any toxic effects. These included moderate shell thinning in relation to increasing DDE, and some evidence that contaminants had contributed to egg failure.     

Dissolved organic nitrogen regulation in freshwaters

Dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) has been hypothesized to play a major role in N cycling in a variety of ecosystems. Our aim was to assess the seasonal and concentration relationships between dissolved organic carbon (DOC), DON, and NO3- within 102 streams and 16 lakes within catchments of differing complexity situated in Wales. Further, we aimed to assess whether patterns of land use, soil type, and vegetation gave consistent trends in DON and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) relationships over a diverse range of catchments. Our results reinforce that DON constitutes a significant component of the total dissolved N pool typically representing 40 to 50% of the total N in streams and lakes but sometimes representing greater than 85% of the total dissolved N. Generally, the levels of DON were inversely correlated with the concentration of DIN. In contrast to DIN concentrations, which showed distinct seasonality, DON showed no consistent seasonal trend. We hypothesize that this reflects differences in the bioavailability of these two N types. The amount of DON, DOC, and DIN was significantly related to soil type with higher DON export from Histosol-dominated catchments in comparison with Spodosol-dominated watersheds. Vegetation cover also had a significant effect on DON concentrations independent of soil type with a nearly twofold decrease in DON export from forested catchments in comparison with nonforested watersheds. Due to the diversity in catchment DON behavior, we speculate that this will limit the adoption of DON as a broad-scale indicator of catchment condition for use in monitoring and assessment programs.