Projecting Cumulative Benefits of Multiple River Restoration Projects: An Example from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River System in California

Despite increasingly large investments, the potential ecological effects of river restoration programs are still small compared to the degree of human alterations to physical and ecological function. Thus, it is rarely possible to “restore” pre-disturbance conditions; rather restoration programs (even large, well-funded ones) will nearly always involve multiple small projects, each of which can make some modest change to selected ecosystem processes and habitats. At present, such projects are typically selected based on their attributes as individual projects (e.g., consistency with programmatic goals of the funders, scientific soundness, and acceptance by local communities), and ease of implementation. Projects are rarely prioritized (at least explicitly) based on how they will cumulatively affect ecosystem function over coming decades. Such projections require an understanding of the form of the restoration response curve, or at least that we assume some plausible relations and estimate cumulative effects based thereon. Drawing on our experience with the CALFED Bay-Delta Ecosystem Restoration Program in California, we consider potential cumulative system-wide benefits of a restoration activity extensively implemented in the region: isolating/filling abandoned floodplain gravel pits captured by rivers to reduce predation of outmigrating juvenile salmon by exotic warmwater species inhabiting the pits. We present a simple spreadsheet model to show how different assumptions about gravel pit bathymetry and predator behavior would affect the cumulative benefits of multiple pit-filling and isolation projects, and how these insights could help managers prioritize which pits to fill.     

COMPARISON OF REGRESSION AND TIME-SERIES METHODS FOR SYNTHESIZING MISSING STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: Regression and time-series techniques have been used to synthesize and predict the stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage from information at the upstream Pohono Bridge gage on the Merced River near Yosemite National Park. Using the available data from two time periods (calendar year 1979 and water year 1986), we evaluated the two techniques in their ability to model the variation in the observed flows and in their ability to predict stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage for the 1979 time period with data from the 1986 time period. Both techniques produced reasonably good estimates and forecasts of the flow at the downstream gage. However, the regression model was found to have a significant amount of autocorrelation in the residuals, which the time-series model was able to eliminate. The time-series technique presented can be of great assistance in arriving at reasonable estimates of flow in data sets that have large missing portions of data.     

Pattern-oriented modeling of bird foraging and pest control in coffee farms

We develop a model of how land use and habitat diversity affect migratory bird populations and their ability to suppress an insect pest on Jamaican coffee farms. Bird foraging—choosing which habitat patch and prey to use as prey abundance changes over space and time—is the key process driving this system. Following the “pattern-oriented” modeling strategy, we identified nine observed patterns that characterize the real system's dynamics. The model was designed so that these patterns could potentially emerge from it. The resulting model is individual-based, has fine spatial and temporal resolutions, represents very simply the supply of the pest insect and other arthropod food in six habitat types, and includes foraging habitat selection as the only adaptive behavior of birds. Although there is an extensive heritage of bird foraging theory in ecology, most of it addresses only the individual level and is too simple for our context. We used pattern-oriented modeling to develop and test foraging theory for this across-scale problem: rules for individual bird foraging that cause the model to reproduce a variety of patterns observed at the system level. Four alternative foraging theories were contrasted by how well they caused the model to reproduce the nine characteristic patterns. Four of these patterns were clearly reproduced with the “null” theory that birds select habitat randomly. A version of classical theory in which birds stay in a patch until food is depleted to some threshold caused the model to reproduce five patterns; this theory caused lower, not higher, use of habitat experiencing an outbreak of prey insects. Assuming that birds select the nearby patch providing highest intake rate caused the model to reproduce all but one pattern, whereas assuming birds select the highest-intake patch over a large radius produced an unrealistic distribution of movement distances. The pattern reproduced under none of the theories, a negative relation between bird density and distance to trees, appears to result from a process not in the model: birds return to trees at night to roost. We conclude that a foraging model for small insectivorous birds in diverse habitat should assume birds can sense higher food supply but over short, not long, distances.     

依据(代)生物体对化学品的反应预测对生态系统服务功能的影响

保护生态系统服务功能越来越多地被作为风险评估的目标,但是目前生态风险评估的终点和评估生态系统服务功能受到的潜在影响之间有很大的差距。作者提出了一个框架,将常用的生态毒理学终点与对种群和群落的影响以及生态系统的服务功能联系起来。这个框架建立在机制效应模型的长足进步上,这些模型旨在跨越多种生物组织,并解释各种生物相互作用和反馈。为了说明这一点,作者引入了2个研究案例,它们采用了已完善和已验证的机制效应模型：鱼种群的inSTREAM个体模型和AQUATOX生态系统模型。他们还展示了动态能量平衡理论可以为解释组织级毒性提供一种通用货币。他们认为,一个基于机制模型的框架,可以预测化学品暴露对生态系统服务的影响,再结合经济估值,可以为环境管理提供一种有用的方法。作者强调了使用这个框架的潜在好处以及未来工作中需要解决的挑战。
精选自Forbes, V. E., Salice, C. J., Birnir, B., Bruins, R. J.F., Calow, P., Ducrot, V., Galic, N., Garber, K., Harvey, B. C., Jager, H., Kanarek, A., Pastorok, R., Railsback, S. F., Rebarber, R. and Thorbek, P. (2017), A framework for predicting impacts on ecosystem services from (sub)organismal responses to chemicals. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 845–859. doi: 10.1002/etc.3720
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3720/full