Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change

Earlier spring phenology observed in many plant species in recent decades provides compelling evidence that species are already responding to the rising global temperatures associated with anthropogenic climate change. There is great variability among species, however, in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. Species that do not phenologically "track" climate change may be at a disadvantage if their growth becomes limited by missed interactions with mutualists, or a shorter growing season relative to earlier-active competitors. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that phenological sensitivity could be used to predict species performance in a warming climate, by synthesizing results across terrestrial warming experiments. We assembled data for 57 species across 24 studies where flowering or vegetative phenology was matched with a measure of species performance. Performance metrics included biomass, percent cover, number of flowers, or individual growth. We found that species that advanced their phenology with warming also increased their performance, whereas those that did not advance tended to decline in performance with warming. This indicates that species that cannot phenologically "track" climate may be at increased risk with future climate change, and it suggests that phenological monitoring may provide an important tool for setting future conservation priorities.     

Examining Trajectories of Change for Prosperous Forest Landscapes in Cambodia

Environmental Management - Tropical forest landscapes are undergoing rapid transition. Rural development aspirations are rising, and land use change is contributing to deforestation, degradation,...     

Seabird mortality induced by land‐based artificial lights

Artificial lights at night cause high mortality of seabirds, one of the most endangered groups of birds globally. Fledglings of burrow‐nesting seabirds, and to a lesser extent adults, are attracted to and then grounded (i.e., forced to land) by lights when they fly at night. We reviewed the current state of knowledge of seabird attraction to light to identify information gaps and propose measures to address the problem. Although species in families such as Alcidae and Anatidae can be grounded by artificial light, the most affected seabirds are petrels and shearwaters (Procellariiformes). At least 56 species of Procellariiformes, more than one‐third of them (24) threatened, are subject to grounding by lights. Seabirds grounded by lights have been found worldwide, mainly on oceanic islands but also at some continental locations. Petrel breeding grounds confined to formerly uninhabited islands are particularly at risk from light pollution due to tourism and urban sprawl. Where it is impractical to ban external lights, rescue programs of grounded birds offer the most immediate and employed mitigation to reduce the rate of light‐induced mortality and save thousands of birds every year. These programs also provide useful information for seabird management. However, these data are typically fragmentary, biased, and uncertain and can lead to inaccurate impact estimates and poor understanding of the phenomenon of seabird attraction to lights. We believe the most urgently needed actions to mitigate and understand light‐induced mortality of seabirds are estimation of mortality and effects on populations; determination of threshold light levels and safe distances from light sources; documentation of the fate of rescued birds; improvement of rescue campaigns, particularly in terms of increasing recovery rates and level of care; and research on seabird‐friendly lights to reduce attraction.     

An assessment of toxicity in profundal lake sediment due to deposition of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants from the atmosphere

A Tier I Sediment Ecological Risk Assessment of profundal lake sediment contaminated by diffuse pollution of heavy metals and POPs deposited from the atmosphere was completed. The concentrations of seven heavy metals and four groups of POPs (OCs, PCBs, PAHs, PBDEs) were determined in the profundal sediment of ten lakes in the United Kingdom and two sediment toxicity tests completed (chironomid survival and emergence and cladoceran survival and reproduction). The results showed that around half the lakes are at least moderately contaminated by Pb, Zn, Cd, As and PAHs deposited from the atmosphere and the toxicity quotient suggests that the contaminants of concern are Pb, As and PAHs, and not the other metals nor OCs and PCBs. There was toxicity in the sediment of four of the lakes. The Probable Effect Concentration Quotient values indicated that metals in the sediments of Scoat Tarn, Agden Reservoir and Llyn Llagi were likely to be responsible for the laboratory toxicity found in these lakes, with PAHs also contributing in Agden Reservoir.     

Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela

‘End-to-end’ models have been adopted in an attempt to capture more of the processes that influence the ecology of marine ecosystems and to make system wide predictions of the effects of fishing and climate change. Here, we develop an end-to-end model by coupling existing models that describe the dynamics of low (ROMS–N₂P₂Z₂D₂) and high trophic levels (OSMOSE). ROMS–N₂P₂Z₂D₂ is a biogeochemical model representing phytoplankton and zooplankton seasonal dynamics forced by hydrodynamics in the Benguela upwelling ecosystem. OSMOSE is an individual-based model representing the dynamics of several species of fish, linked through opportunistic and size-based trophic interactions. The models are coupled through a two-way size-based predation process. Plankton provides prey for fish, and the effects of predation by fish on the plankton are described by a plankton mortality term that is variable in space and time. Using the end-to-end model, we compare the effects of two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of the fish model with the plankton biomass field. The fish-induced mortality on plankton is temporally variable, in part explained by seasonal changes in fish biomass. Inclusion of two-way feedback affects the seasonal dynamics of plankton groups and usually reduces the amplitude of variation in abundance (top-down effect). Forcing and coupling lead to different predicted food web structures owing to changes in the dominant food chain which is supported by plankton (bottom-up effect). Our comparisons of one-way forcing and two-way coupling show how feedbacks may affect abundance, food web structure and food web function and emphasise the need to critically examine the consequences of different model architectures when seeking to predict the effects of fishing and climate change.