A simple model to assess nitrogen and phosphorus contamination in ungauged surface drainage networks: application to the Massaciuccoli Lake Catchment, Italy

Modeling is a common practice to evaluate factors affecting water quality in environmental systems impaired by point and nonpoint losses of N and P. Nevertheless, in situations with inadequate information, such as ungauged basins, a balance between model complexity and data availability is necessary. In this paper, we applied a simplified analytical model to an artificially drained floodplain in central-western Italy to evaluate the importance of different nutrient sources and in-stream retention processes and to identify critical source areas. We first considered only a set of chemical concentrations in water measured from February through May 2008 and from November 2008 through February 2009. We then broadened available data to include water discharge and hydraulic-head measurements to construct a hydrogeological model using MODFLOW-2000 and to evaluate the reliability of the simplified method. The simplified model provided acceptable estimates of discharge (ranging from 0.03-0.75 m s) and diffuse nutrient inputs from water table discharge and in-stream retention phenomena. Estimates of PO-P and total P retention (ranging from 1.0 to 0.6 μg m s and from 1.18 to 0.95 μg m s for PO-P and total P, respectively) were consistent with the range of variability in literature data. In contrast, the higher temporal variability of nitrate concentrations decreased model accuracy, suggesting the need for more intensive monitoring. The model also separated the dynamics of different reaches of the drainage network and identified zones considered critical source areas and buffer zones where pollutant transport is reduced.     

SENSITWITY ANALYSIS OF SIMULATED CONTAMINATED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation analysis of contaminated sediment transport involves model selection, data collection, model calibration and verification, and evaluation of uncertainty in the results. Sensitivity analyses provide information to address these issues at several stages of the investigation. A sensitivity analysis of simulated contaminated sediment transport is used to identify the most sensitive output variables and the parameters most responsible for the output variable sensitivity. The output variables included are streamflow and the flux of sediment and Cs¹³⁷. The sensitivities of these variables are measured at the field and intermediate scales, for flood and normal flow conditions, using the HSPF computer model. A sensitivity index was used to summarize and compare the results of a large number of output variables and parameters. An extensive database was developed to calibrate the model and conduct the sensitivity analysis on a 6.2 mi² catchment in eastern Tennessee. The fluxes of sediment and Cs¹³⁷ were more sensitive than streamflow to changes in parameters for both flood and normal flow conditions. The relative significance of specific parameters on output variable sensitivity varied according to the type of flow condition and the location in the catchment. An implications section illustrates how sensitivity analysis results can help with model selection, planning data collection, calibration, and uncertainty analysis.     

Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction

This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake ‘prediction’ in favour of ‘forecasting’. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty.     

Resistant weeds were controlled by the combined use of herbicides and bioherbicides

The intensive and abundant use of synthetic herbicides has been questioned in recent decades due to the strong dependence and also the resistance effects that are identified in weeds. Several grain crops suffer from the weed control system because many of the weeds are already resistant to the main herbicides that are used. In recent years, there has been a large gap in the market without the addition of new synthetic herbicides with mechanisms of action that differ from those already existing. The objective of this short piece is to address and overcome this challenge and bring an innovative and alternative solution that proposes a synergistic action system between bioherbicides produced by the fungus Trichoderma koningiopsis and synthetic herbicides (2,4‐dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, glyphosate, and ammonium glufosinate). The plants included in this study were Bidens pilosa (amor seco, or in the United States, beggar ticks or Spanish needle), Euphorbia heterophylla (adeus‐brasil), and Conyza bonariensis (margaridinha‐do‐campo, or, in the United States, hairy fleabane or asthmaweed). It was verified that, in the application of the biocomposites in the presence of chemical herbicides, potentiation of the phytotoxic action (100%) occurred under the target plants, emphasizing phytotoxicity to the weed, C. bonariensis, which is currently resistant to available herbicides. The bioherbicides studied have promising characteristics to be explored in the biocontrol of weeds.