A method for ranking components importance in presence of epistemic uncertainties

Importance Measures (IMs) are used to rank the contributions of components or basic events to the system performance, e.g. its reliability or risk. Most times, IMs are calculated without due account of the uncertainties in the model of the behavior of the system. The objective of this work is to investigate how uncertainties can influence IMs and to develop a method for giving them due account in the corresponding ranking of the components or basic events. The uncertainties considered in this work affect the model parameters values and are assumed to be described by probability density functions. The method for ranking the contributors to the system performance measure is applied to the auxiliary feedwater system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor.     

Speciation analysis of aluminium in plant parts of Betula pendula and in soil

The research presents the first results of aluminium speciation analysis in aqueous extracts of individual plant parts of Betula pendula and soil samples, using High Performance Ion Chromatography with Diode Array Detection(HPIC-DAD). The applied method allowed us to carry out a full speciation analysis of aluminium in the form of predominant aluminium–fluoride complexes: AlF_((x = 2,3,4))~((3-x))(first analytical signal), AlF~(2+)(second analytical signal) and Al~(3+)(third analytical signal) in samples of lateral roots, tap roots, twigs, stem, leaf and soil collected under roots of B. pendula. Concentrations of aluminium and its complexes were determined for two types of environment characterised by different degree of human impact:contaminated site of the Chemical Plant in Luboń and protected area of the Wielkopolski National Park. For all the analysed samples of B. pendula and soil, AlF_((x = 2,3,4))~((3-x))had the largest contribution, followed by Al~(3+)and AlF~(2+). Significant differences in concentration and contribution of Al–F complexes and Al~(3+)form, depending on the place of sampling(different anthropogenic pressure) and plant part of B. pendula were observed. Based on the obtained results, it was found that transport of aluminium is "blocked" by lateral roots, and is closely related to Al content of soil.     

Industrial disasters: Extreme events,extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks

This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed.     

Vertical distribution of heavy metals in grain size fractions in sedimentary rocks: Mosina–Krajkowo water well field, Poland

The paper presents the results of heavy metals determination in samples of sedimentary rocks from the Mosina-Krajkowo water well field (Poland). The concentration of heavy metals was analysed by type of rock (sand, gravel, warp, silt, till, and clay). Variation of heavy metal concentrations with depth was studied taking into account the age series of the rocks (fluvial sediments of the modern Warta River valley, sediments of the Baltic Glaciation, tills of the Middle-Polish Glaciation, sediments of the Masovian Interglacial (Holstein), tills of the Poznań series) and granulometric fractions. The grain sizes considered included: >2.0, 2.0-1.0, 1.0-0.5, 0.5-0.25, 0.25-0.1, 0.1-0.063, and <0.063 mm. The concentrations of the heavy metals studied were found to change with the type of rock, age series, and granulometric fraction. The levels of the metals were determined by the technique of atomic absorption spectrometry with flame atomisation (F-AAS) and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES).     

Optimal spatial sampling schemes for environmental surveys

A practical problem in spatial statistics is that of constructing spatial sampling designs for environmental monitoring network. This paper presents a fractal-based criterion for the construction of coverage designs to optimize the location of sampling points. The algorithm does not depend on the covariance structure of the process and provides desirable results for situations in which a poor prior knowledge is available. The statistical characteristics of the method are explored by a simulation study while a design exercise concerning the Pescara area monitoring network is used to demonstrate potential designs under realistic assumptions.     

A Novel Metric to Evaluate the Association Rules for Identification of Functional Dependencies in Complex Technical Infrastructures

Environment Systems and Decisions - Functional dependencies in complex technical infrastructures can cause unexpected cascades of failures, with major consequences on availability. For this reason,...     

Determination of aluminium in groundwater samples by GF-AAS, ICP-AES, ICP-MS and modelling of inorganic aluminium complexes

The paper presents the results of aluminium determinations in ground water samples of the Miocene aquifer from the area of the city of Poznań (Poland). The determined aluminium content amounted from <0.0001 to 752.7 μg L(-1). The aluminium determinations were performed using three analytical techniques: graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS), inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The results of aluminium determinations in groundwater samples for particular analytical techniques were compared. The results were used to identify the ascent of ground water from the Mesozoic aquifer to the Miocene aquifer in the area of the fault graben. Using the Mineql+ program, the modelling of the occurrence of aluminium and the following aluminium complexes: hydroxy, with fluorides and sulphates was performed. The paper presents the results of aluminium determinations in ground water using different analytical techniques as well as the chemical modelling in the Mineql+ program, which was performed for the first time and which enabled the identification of aluminium complexes in the investigated samples. The study confirms the occurrence of aluminium hydroxy complexes and aluminium fluoride complexes in the analysed groundwater samples. Despite the dominance of sulphates and organic matter in the sample, major participation of the complexes with these ligands was not stated based on the modelling.     

Application of multivariate statistical techniques to evaluation of water quality in the Mała Wełna River (Western Poland)

The paper presents the results of determinations of physico-chemical parameters of the Ma?a We?na waters, a river situated in Wielkopolska voivodeship (Western Poland). Samples for the physico-chemical analysis were taken in eight gauging cross-sections once a month between May and November 2006. To assess the physico-chemical composition of surface water, use was made of multivariate statistical methods of data analysis, viz. cluster analysis (CA), factor analysis (FA), principal components analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA). They made it possible to observe similarities and differences in the physico-chemical composition of water in the gauging cross-sections, to identify water quality indicators suitable for characterising its temporal and spatial variability, to uncover hidden factors accounting for the structure of the data, and to assess the impact of man-made sources of water pollution.