自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

救生衣用泡沫塑料压缩回弹性能测试方法研究

软质闭孔泡沫塑料已经成为救生衣浮体材料的一个主要品种。救生衣用泡沫塑料应有较低的压缩刚度和较高的压缩弹性恢复率,以保证使用者有良好的贴体性、穿着舒服、手感柔软,同时有稳定的浮力。 我国长期以来缺乏救生衣用泡沫塑料的产品标准和测试方法标准,生产中光凭技术人员的主观判断来选用泡沫塑料,故救生衣成品的质量千差万别,良莠不齐。 本文提出了救生衣用泡沫塑料的压缩回弹性能测试方法,可操作性强、避免了人为误差,且与专家评判有良好的一致性;在此基础上可以形成救生衣用泡沫塑料的产品标准和测试方法标准,特推荐给读者一读,并请读者从建立产品标准和方法标准的角度多提宝贵意见。     

防止突发性环境事故保障环境安全之浅见

通过对有毒化学品和突发性化学污染事故危害特点的分析，提出建立相应环境安全管理体系的建议。     

运用灰色GM（1,1）系统模型预测北京市污水排放量

北京市水资源开发利用已经超过了水资源承载能力范围,由此引发的水资源短缺问题日益严重.对污水的综合利用进行研究可以达到持续利用水资源的目的,解决水资源短缺问题.以北京市2005-2012年污水排放量资料为基础,运用灰色系统模型,对工业、生活污水排放量及总污水排放量进行了预测,分析北京市污水排放量走势及存在的问题,提出未来北京市污水综合利用的对策措施.     

京津冀都市圈格网尺度洪涝灾害风险评价研究

气候变化与快速的城市化进程加剧了都市圈的洪涝灾害,准确的评估都市圈的风险等级已成为社会经济发展的迫切需求。该文根据所选取的14个评价指标,以格网尺度(1 km×1 km)为评价单元,采用基于组合权重的模糊综合评价法对京津冀都市圈的洪涝灾害进行了风险等级评价,并采用历史洪水和人员伤亡点位数据对风险评价结果进行了可靠性验证。结果表明:京津冀都市圈洪涝灾害风险等级大致以北京市为中心,呈"花瓣状"的空间分布格局;此外,量化了京津冀都市圈152个区县的风险等级分布情况。与IPCC AR5方法相比,模糊综合评价法可降低风险评价过程中的模糊性与不确定性,能够获得客观的风险评价结果。     

声音

岁末年初要特别小心段克仁从以往经验看,岁末容易出事故。这是因为在年末员工情绪易波动,他们上岗后常因思考过年过节、探亲访友之事而心不在焉,甚至心事重重;其二,岁末时有的企业因生产任务完不成而加班加点,一天工作十多个钟头,工人身心疲惫,力不从心;另外,岁末时各级安全管理人员要写材料、写总结、填报各种报表,参加各种检查会议等,十分繁忙,精力分散,顾此失彼,管理松懈。鉴于     

Quantity and activity of ammonia-oxidizing archaea and bacteria and their contribution to ammonia oxidation in farmland soil of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

Ammonia oxidation, the first and rate-limiting step of nitrification, is mainly performed by ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB). However, the activities of AOA and AOB in soil and their relative contribution to ammonia oxidation are unclear, and whether there is a significant correlation between the quantity of AOA and AOB and the ammonia oxidation rate is also controversial. In this study, quantitative PCR combined with acetylene (C2H2) and 1-octyne inhibition methods were used to determine the quantity and activity of AOA and AOB in wheat, highland barley, and oilseed rape soils in Nyingchi, Lhatse, Sangzhuzi, and Sangri counties on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results showed that the quantity of AOB ((2.34 ± 0.84) ×105 - (2.65 ± 1.07) ×106 copies g-1 dry soil) was significantly higher than that of AOA ((0.20 ± 0.10) ×104 - (4.02 ± 0.39) ×104 copies g-1 dry soil) in all the soil samples. Soil pH was the key factor affecting the quantity of AOB, and the total phosphorus and ammonium nitrogen in soil were the key factors affecting the quantity of AOA. The rates of ammonia oxidation in the farmland soils of Lhatse (2.42 ± 0.73 mg kg-1 d-1) and Sangzhuzi (3.24 ± 1.15 mg kg-1 d-1) were significantly higher than those in the soils of Nyingchi (1.17 ± 0.43 mg kg-1 d-1) and Sangri counties (0.88 ± 0.57 mg kg-1 d-1). The rates of ammonia oxidation in the farmland soils of Lhatse and Sangzhuzi were dominated by AOB, while those in the farmland soils of Nyingchi and Sangri counties were dominated by AOA. For crops, the ammonia oxidation rates of wheat and oilseed rape soils in all four regions were significantly higher than those of highland barley soil, whereas the activity of AOA and AOB was not influenced by crops. The ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus was the key factor influencing AOA activity, whereas soil pH and total carbon were the main factors influencing AOB activity. Additionally, the quantities of AOA and AOB were not significantly correlated with the total ammonia oxidation rates and AOA and AOB activity. Overall, our study suggests that both AOA and AOB play important roles in ammonia oxidation in farmland soils of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Moreover, it is unreliable to predict the activity of AOA and AOB and their relative contribution to ammonia oxidation directly based on their number of amoA genes, and the activity of AOA and AOB should be directly and accurately measured. These results are important for understanding ammonia nitrogen removal processes, slowing nitrate loss, and reducing the emission of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide in the farmland ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

不同粒径炉渣对磷的静态吸附

研究了不同粒级炉渣对含磷废水的静态等温吸附性能,为其在污水处理领域的有效利用和合理级配提供理论依据。经筛分得到<0.2 mm、0.2~0.45 mm、0.45~0.9 mm、0.9~2 mm、2~4 mm、4~6 mm、≥6 mm的7个粒级的供试炉渣,其中0.9~4 mm粒级占总量的64.54%。XRD、XRF分析显示,各粒级炉渣物相组成相似,<0.2 mm粒级炉渣中活性铝含量最高。静态吸附实验表明,炉渣对磷素的最大吸附量为4 021 mg/kg,最佳吸附时间为24 h;Langmuir和Freundlich吸附等温线可较好地拟合各粒级炉渣对溶液中磷素的吸附,而小于0.9 mm粒级炉渣具有更高的拟合度;炉渣粒径越小,吸附能力越强,<0.2 mm粒级炉渣的理论饱和吸附容量达14 084 mg/kg,≥6 mm粒级炉渣吸附磷素能力差;受粒径、溶液含磷浓度等因素影响,炉渣的平均理论吸附容量为1 142.4 mg/kg。     

试论我国企业碳信息披露存在的问题及对策

正碳信息披露是企业碳排放管理的有效手段在全球变暖的大背景下,发展低碳经济已成为各国政府的共识。在资源稀缺和限制碳排放的双重约束下,企业亦调整自身发展战略,减少对日益稀缺的能源和资源的依赖,追求可持续增长。企业在日常经营活动中,在原材料供应、生产加工、仓储物流、营销、产品回收与处置等各环节,都会排放大量的二氧化碳,由此加剧了温室效应,这反过来又会制约企业的未来发展和竞争力的提升。企业     

北京市生态涵养区生态服务价值评估与生态补偿机制探讨

在分析北京市生态涵养区在生态补偿制度建设困境的基础上,本文将国内外区域生态系统价值评估模型相结合,运用修正的生态服务价值评估模型,对北京市生态涵养区2016年的生态服务价值进行了估算,并分析了2009-2016年生态服务价值的变动及其影响因素,从科学评估生态服务价值、完善生态补偿标准方法的制定、健全生态保护补偿制度、将绿色GDP纳入生态涵养区绩效考核指标评价体系几个方面探讨了完善生态补偿机制的政策措施。一方面更加直观地揭示了生态涵养区生态服务的重要经济价值,另一方面为建立更加科学的生态补偿机制提供了可参考的依据。