Numerical model to quantify biogenic volatile organic compound emissions: The Pearl River Delta region as a case study

This article compiles the actual knowledge of the biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions estimated using model methods in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, one of the most developed regions in China. The developed history of BVOC emission models is presented briefly and three typical emission models are introduced and compared. The results from local studies related to BVOC emissions have been summarized. Based on this analysis, it is recommended that local researchers conduct BVOC emission studies systematically, from the assessment of model inputs, to compiling regional emission inventories to quantifying the uncertainties and evaluating the model results. Beyond that, more basic researches should be conducted in the future to close the gaps in knowledge on BVOC emission mechanisms, to develop the emission models and to refine the inventory results. This paper can provide a perspective on these aspects in the broad field of research associated with BVOC emissions in the PRD region.     

Fetoscopic myelomeningocoele closure: Is the scientific evidence enough to challenge the gold standard for prenatal surgery?

Since the completion of the Management of Myelomeningocoele Study, maternal-fetal surgery for spina bifida has become a valid option for expecting parents. More recently, multiple groups are exploring a minimally invasive approach and recent outcomes have addressed many of the initial concerns with this approach. Based on a previously published framework, we attempt to delineate the developmental stage of the surgical techniques. Furthermore, we discuss the barriers of performing randomized controlled trials comparing two surgical interventions and suggest that data collection through registries is an alternative method to gather high-grade evidence.     

Additional steps in mechanical recyling of PET

This study presents the laboratory scale results of an extra step in Poly (ethylene terephthalate) – PET mechanical recycling (grinding, washing, drying and reprocessing): a chemical washing after the conventional one. Cooking oil PET bottle flakes were washed in water and then subjected to a reaction with an aqueous solution of sodium hydroxide 5 M at 90 °C for 10 min (chemical washing). After rinsing and drying, the flakes were characterized by thermogravimetry, gas chromatography and elemental analysis tests. The results indicated that the chemically washed material had higher purity than PET washed only with water: 99.3% and 96.7%, respectively, which undoubtedly implies properties, applications and prices closer to those of virgin resin. The production of purified terephthalic acid (TPA) from the chemical washing residue was optimized and reached a purity of 99.6%. Despite the results, the use of chemically washed PET and of TPA obtained is not recommended for direct contact with food, since they still contain some impurities.     

Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.     

Darwin’s “tug-of-war” vs. starlings’ “horse-racing”: how adaptations for sequential encounters drive simultaneous choice

Charles Darwin aided his private decision making by an explicit deliberation, famously deciding whether or not to marry by creating a list of points in a table with two columns: “Marry” and “Not Marry”. One hundred seventy-two years after Darwin’s wedding, we reconsider whether this process of choice, under which individuals assign values to their options and compare their relative merits at the time of choosing (the tug-of-war model), applies to our experimental animal, the European Starling, Sturnus vulgaris. We contrast this with the sequential choice model that postulates that decision-makers make no comparison between options at the time of choice. According to the latter, behaviour in simultaneous choices reflects adaptations to contexts with sequential encounters, in which the choice is whether to take an opportunity or let it pass. We postulate that, in sequential encounters, the decision-maker assigns (by learning) a subjective value to each option, reflecting its payoff relative to background opportunities. This value is expressed as latency and/or probability to accept each opportunity as opposed to keep searching. In simultaneous encounters, choice occurs through each option being processed independently, by a race between the mechanisms that generate option-specific latencies. We describe these alternative models and review data supporting the predictions of the sequential choice model.     

Shiny cowbirds share foster mothers but not true mothers in multiply parasitized mockingbird nests

Obligate brood parasitic birds, such as cowbirds, evade parental care duties by laying their eggs in the nests of other species. Cowbirds are assumed to avoid laying repeatedly in the same nest so as to prevent intrabrood competition between their offspring. However, because searching for host nests requires time and energy, laying more than one egg per nest might be favoured where hosts are large and can readily rear multiple parasites per brood. Such ‘repeat parasitism’ by females would have important consequences for parasite evolution because young parasites would then incur indirect fitness costs from behaving selfishly. We investigated shiny cowbird (Molothrus bonariensis) parasitism of a large host, the chalk-browed mockingbird (Mimus saturninus), in a population where over 70 % of the parasitized mockingbird nests receive multiple cowbird eggs. We assessed egg maternity directly, using cameras at nests to film the laying of individually-marked females. We also supplemented video data with evidence from egg morphology, after confirming that each female lays eggs of a consistent appearance. From 133 eggs laid, we found that less than 5 % were followed by the same female visiting the nest to lay again or to puncture eggs. Multiple eggs in mockingbird nests were instead the result of different females, with up to eight individuals parasitizing a single brood. Thus, while cowbird chicks regularly share mockingbird nests with conspecifics, these are unlikely to be their maternal siblings. Our results are consistent with shiny cowbird females following a one-egg-per-nest rule, even where hosts can rear multiple parasitic young.     

Modelling of stable isotope fractionation by methane oxidation and diffusion in landfill cover soils

A technique to measure biological methane oxidation in landfill cover soils that is gaining increased interest is the measurement of stable isotope fractionation in the methane. Usually to quantify methane oxidation, only fractionation by oxidation is taken into account. Recently it was shown that neglecting the isotope fractionation by diffusion results in underestimation of the methane oxidation. In this study a simulation model was developed that describes gas transport and methane oxidation in landfill cover soils. The model distinguishes between (12)CH(4), (13)CH(4), and (12)CH(3)D explicitly, and includes isotope fractionation by diffusion and oxidation. To evaluate the model, the simulations were compared with column experiments from previous studies. The predicted concentration profiles and isotopic profiles match the measured ones very well, with a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 1.7vol% in the concentration and a RMSD of 0.8 per thousand in the delta(13)C value, with delta(13)C the relative (13)C abundance as compared to an international standard. Overall, the comparison shows that a model-based isotope approach for the determination of methane oxidation efficiencies is feasible and superior to existing isotope methods.     

An ecosystem model for estimating potential shellfish culture production in sheltered coastal waters

A generic ecosystem model has been developed for estimating the potential production of shellfish culture and the effect of that cultivation on the pelagic ecosystem in sheltered coastal waters. The model describes the dynamics of a simple food web, nutrient cycling and growth of shellfish. The design of the model is closely tied to the temporal and spatial scales that are important in determining the sustainable production level for a particular embayment. The pelagic ecosystem, mussel energetics, population dynamics and hydrodynamics are coupled to allow fully dynamic predictions of the effect of the shellfish density. When applied to Beatrix Bay, an intensive culture embayment in the Pelorus Sound of New Zealand, the model successfully captured main features of the observed system behaviour. The hydrodynamic regime of the bay controls mussel growth and production. Although high fluxes of water into the bay suppress nutrient and carbon cycling signals in the system, the model simulations demonstrated that the mussel cultivation can have considerable effects on the ecosystem of the bay including food depletion and nutrient cycling. One of the most obvious effects is nutrient enhancement through mussel excretion at low cultivation densities, which promotes primary production particularly during the N-limitation period in summer. The sensitivity analysis identified uncertainty in some parameters and indicated areas for which experimental studies could lead to model improvement. The modelling exercise has established a primary predictive tool for managing mussel aquaculture of a coastal embayment to estimate relationships between the stock level and the growth rate of mussels, and the potentially achievable harvest and stocking density.     

A systematic review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of animal experiments with guidelines for reporting

To maximize the findings of animal experiments to inform likely health effects in humans, a thorough review and evaluation of the animal evidence is required. Systematic reviews and, where appropriate, meta-analyses have great potential in facilitating such an evaluation, making efficient use of the animal evidence while minimizing possible sources of bias. The extent to which systematic review and meta-analysis methods have been applied to evaluate animal experiments to inform human health is unknown. Using systematic review methods, we examine the extent and quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of in vivo animal experiments carried out to inform human health. We identified 103 articles meeting the inclusion criteria: 57 reported a systematic review, 29 a systematic review and a meta-analysis, and 17 reported a meta-analysis only. The use of these methods to evaluate animal evidence has increased over time. Although the reporting of systematic reviews is of adequate quality, the reporting of meta-analyses is poor. The inadequate reporting of meta-analyses observed here leads to questions on whether the most appropriate methods were used to maximize the use of the animal evidence to inform policy or decision-making. We recommend that guidelines proposed here be used to help improve the reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of animal experiments. Further consideration of the use and methodological quality and reporting of such studies is needed.