Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.     

Once there was a river: a benefit–cost analysis of rehabilitation of the Jordan River

The Jordan River is among the world’s most famous and culturally and historically significant waterways. The lower stretch of the river, however, has been a victim of development in a water scarce region, with current flows less than 5 % of historical levels. Furthermore, as it functions as an international border in a region of conflict, access to the river and its potential as a tourist attraction has been limited. Recently, there have been numerous calls for rehabilitation of the river. This study presents a first estimate of the economic benefits of such rehabilitation and compares them to the estimated costs. Identical contingent valuation method surveys were administered in Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. Evidence from this study shows that, despite the large opportunity costs of increasing environmental flows, rehabilitation of the lower Jordan would produce positive net economic benefits. This is true even though the study estimated only the benefits to local populations, and not to international tourists or those outside the region. Net benefits are maximized when taking a regional, as opposed to strictly national, approach.     

Public policy and the value of the environment: an alternative approach

There is a growing concern regarding the ‘true’ GNP. The claim is that the cost of environmental degradation should be taken into account when calculating welfare measures for society which can be derived from the system of national accounts (SNA). However, the reason that it has not been done is the difficulty of calculating the true ‘price of the environment’. The literature recognizes two types of measurements. One is based on indirect measures (e.g. hedonic methods) while the second is based on direct methods (e.g. contingent valuation methods). There is an alternative approach which is suggested in this paper. The new method relies on the assumption that what we see in reality is the outcome of a maximization process of some social welfare function which includes not only GNP but other elements of which environmental quality is one. By observing the reality, we can get some information on the implicit governmental weights and hence on the trade‐off between the GNP and the environment. This is a positive approach rather than a normative one, so future decisions can rely on this measurement as a guide for controversial decisions regarding development versus preservation. The theoretical model is then applied to the Israeli economy as an example in order to have some estimate on the price derived by this method.     

Second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) iselevated in women with adverse pregnancy outcome associated with inherited thrombophilias

Obstetric complications, such as severe pre-eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, abruptio placentae, or stillbirth are associated with abnormally elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and β subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (βhCG). This has been attributed to placental abnormalities. Women with thrombophilias have been shown to have abnormalities of the placenta resulting in adverse pregnancy outcome in these patients. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether women with pregnancy complications and inherited thrombophilias have abnormally elevated second-trimester MSAFP or βhCG. Sixty-two women with pregnancy complications were tested for inherited thrombophilias several months after delivery. The thrombophilia group included 29 women with pregnancy complications and an inherited thrombophilia and the control group included 33 other patients without thrombophilia. Patients in the thrombophilia group had a higher median MoM MSAFP compared to the controls (1.337 vs 1.086, p=0.0516). The incidence of abnormally elevated MSAFP (>2.5 MoM) was also significantly higher in the thrombophilia group compared to controls (21% vs 3%, p=0.04). Neither the median MoM βhCG nor the incidence of abnormally elevated βhCG were significantly different between the groups. We conclude that second trimester MSAFP, but not βhCG, is abnormally elevated in patients with thrombophilia and obstetric complications. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scale-dependent habitat selection in migratory frugivorous passerines

Frugivorous migrants may select fruit-rich habitats en route to attain high food rewards, yet their stopover behavior may also be shaped by other considerations, such as predation risk. During 1996–2001 we investigated autumn stopover habitat use of three Sylvia warblers (sylviids; S. hortensis, S. atricapilla and S. curruca) and three Turdidae chats (turdids; Cercotrichas galactotes, Oenanthe hispanica and Phoenicurus phoenicurus) in planted groves of the fruiting tree Pistacia atlantica in Lahav Forest, Israel, which is located at the edge of a desert. We used fecal analysis, a constant-effort trapping scheme and field observations to estimate the extent of frugivory, and bird habitat and microhabitat selection with regard to natural fruit and foliage densities. We also measured bird microhabitat selection in a set of fruit-manipulated trees. We trapped a total of 2,357 birds during the course of the study. Although sylviids exhibited higher frugivory level than turdids, both species groups exhibited a similar significantly positive correlation between bird and fruit densities at the habitat scale. However, at the microhabitat scale, sylviids selected densely foliated trees, whilst turdids were randomly distributed among trees. Our findings suggest that both species groups selected fruit-rich stopover habitats to take advantage of the high food availability before the demanding migration journey. No other mechanism except predation avoidance can explain the sylviids microhabitat selection; the migrants used foliage cover to reduce bird detectability by raptors. We conclude that en route passerines may use staging habitats in a sophisticated manner, by adopting scale-related behavior with regard to the availability of food and refuge cover.     

Work–family conflicts of women in the Air Force: their influence on mental health and functioning

This paper examined the effects of work and family stressors and conflicts on Air Force women's mental health and functioning. We analyzed data from a 1993 survey of representative stratified samples of 525 Air Force women from the active duty reserve and guard forces. The analyses of the data are guided by the comprehensive model of work–family conflict that has been tested by Frone, Russell, and Cooper (1992) using a large representative community sample. Structural equation modeling analyses provided support for the work–family conflict model. The analyses also provided support for an extension of the model, which included the separate effects of marital and parental roles on mental health. The extended model demonstrated that job and parental stresses had direct effects on work–family conflicts and that job and marital distress and family–work conflict had an independent adverse effect on mental health. Whereas job and parental involvement had a beneficial effect on distress, they had an adverse effect on work–family conflicts. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bayesian assessment of the effect of highway bypasses in Iowa on crashes and crash rate

Introduction

A common contention is that the construction of highway bypasses negatively impacts the economy of local communities by reducing pass-by traffic for businesses. However, as access to specific business' account records is limited, this impact is difficult to quantify. Another common contention is that bypasses contribute to a reduction in overall crashes in the community and in the surrounding areas. Even though a large number of bypasses have been constructed in the State of Iowa over the past several years, their actual impact in terms of traffic safety has not been quantified.

Objectives

This study seeks answers to the following questions: (a) Are bypasses in Iowa associated with a reduction in crash frequencies and crash rates on the bypassed highway? (b) Do bypasses in Iowa introduce a reduction of overall crash frequencies and rates or do they merely shift crashes from the highways through the communities to the bypasses with no significant overall reduction?

Method

We obtained crash information from the Iowa DOT at 19 sites on which a bypass was constructed sometime during the past 23 years. We also obtained the same information at six sites used as comparison sites on which no bypasses were constructed at least until 2005. We them employed a Bayesian approach to estimating the association between the construction of the bypass and crash rates, while also accounting for other factors.

Results

The construction of bypasses in Iowa is associated with a significant increase in traffic safety both on the main road through town and on the combined main road and bypass roadway.