New hydroepidemiological models of indicator organisms and zoonotic pathogens in agricultural watersheds

Simple analytical models are derived to assess how a series of cattle animal farms affect the transport and fate of an indicator organism (Escherichia coli) and a zoonotic pathogen (Campylobacter) in a stream. Separate steady-state mass-balance models are developed and solved for the ultimate minimum and maximum concentrations for the two organisms. The E. coli model assumes that the organism is ubiquitous and abundant in the animals’ digestive tracts. In contrast, a simple dose-response model is employed to relate the Campylobacter prevalence to drinking water drawn from the stream. Because faecal indicators are commonly employed to assess the efficacy of best management practice (BMP) interventions, we also employ the models to assess how BMPs impact pathogen levels. The model provides predictions of (a) the relative removal efficacy for Campylobacter and (b) the prevalence of Campylobacter infection among farm animals after implementation of BMPs. Dimensionless numbers and simple graphs are developed to assess how prevalence is influenced by a number of factors including animal density and farm spacing. A significant outcome of this model development is that the numerous dimensional input and parameter variables are reduced to a group of just four dimensionless Campylobacter-related quantities, characterizing: animal density; in-stream attenuation; animal-to-animal transmission; and infection recovery. Calculations reveal that for some constellations of these four quantities there can be a greater-than-expected benefit in that the proportional reduction of stream Campylobacter concentrations post-BMP can substantially exceed the proportional reduction of concentrations of E. coli in that stream. In addition, a criterion for system sterility (i.e., the conditions required for the farm infection rate to decrease with downstream distance) is derived.     

Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Population structure of red drum (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sciaenops ocellatus</Emphasis>) as determined by otolith chemistry

To examine current genetic-based paradigms pertaining to the structure and possible philopatry of red drum populations, we used solution-based inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to analyze the otolith chemistry of juvenile red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) from eight different estuaries in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf) and the North Atlantic Ocean. One estuary (Tampa Bay, Fla.) was sampled in three different years. Analyses of variance for five elemental ratios (Mg/Ca, Mn/Ca, Zn/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca) were all significantly different between estuaries, as was a multi-element signature (MANOVA, Pillais trace F _{50, 1020}=19.41, P<0.0001). We also found that red drum from the Gulf could be distinguished from those taken from the Atlantic Ocean with 99.5% accuracy, likely due to differences in water chemistry between these water masses. A discriminant function developed using these elemental ratios was more than 80% accurate in assigning juvenile red drum to their natal estuary, or in the case of Tampa Bay, to the correct year of spawning. We also used laser ablation ICP-MS to examine the otolith core chemistry of adult red drum collected from spawning aggregations near Tampa Bay. Using a discriminant function analysis with a calibration data set derived from juvenile signatures, we found that 75% of the adult cores matched the juvenile signal established for Tampa Bay 1982. Although preliminary, the results presented here suggest that red drum may return to their natal estuary to spawn, which has been postulated from genetic data.Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin     

Assessing environmentally significant effects: a better strength-of-evidence than a single P value?

Interpreting a P value from a traditional nil hypothesis test as a strength-of-evidence for the existence of an environmentally important difference between two populations of continuous variables (e.g. a chemical concentration) has become commonplace. Yet, there is substantial literature, in many disciplines, that faults this practice. In particular, the hypothesis tested is virtually guaranteed to be false, with the result that P depends far too heavily on the number of samples collected (the ‘sample size’). The end result is a swinging burden-of-proof (permissive at low sample size but precautionary at large sample size). We propose that these tests be reinterpreted as direction detectors (as has been proposed by others, starting from 1960) and that the test’s procedure be performed simultaneously with two types of equivalence tests (one testing that the difference that does exist is contained within an interval of indifference, the other testing that it is beyond that interval—also known as bioequivalence testing). This gives rise to a strength-of-evidence procedure that lends itself to a simple confidence interval interpretation. It is accompanied by a strength-of-evidence matrix that has many desirable features: not only a strong/moderate/dubious/weak categorisation of the results, but also recommendations about the desirability of collecting further data to strengthen findings.     

Auxinic herbicides induce oxidative stress on Cnesterodon decemmaculatus (Pisces: Poeciliidae)

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Pesticides might increase the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Dicamba (DIC) and 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) are auxinic...     

Agrarian Ideals and Practices: Comments on Paul B. Thompson’s The Agrarian Vision

In The Agrarian Vision, Thompson argues that a better appreciation of agrarian ideals could lead to a more virtuous, more sustainable way of life. While I agree with Thompson in many respects, there are some aspects of the book that I question and others that I would like to hear Thompson explicate in greater detail. In this paper, I question Thompson’s claim that agrarian farmers and farming communities serve as ideal models of virtuous habits and good character. I challenge Thompson’s use of virtue theory, particularly the notion that farming virtues can be acquired without participating in farming practices. In the end, I make the point that Thompson seems to vacillate between being realistic and being idealistic, which may seriously complicate our notions of responsibility and obligation in practice.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in breast milk of first-time Irish mothers: impact of the 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland

The 2008 dioxin incident in Ireland resulted in elevated concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in Irish pork and pork products, due to the consumption of contaminated animal feed by pigs. In order to investigate any resulting impact on the Irish population, these contaminants were measured in pooled breast milk samples from 109 first-time mothers, collected in 2010. A comparison of the results with similar data from 2002 revealed generally lower concentrations of PCDD/Fs and dioxin-like PCBs in the 2010 samples, confirming the declining trend reported by many authors. Contaminant concentration levels for both 2002 and 2010 were generally slightly lower than those reported internationally, with a mean combined PCDD/F and PCB WHO-TEQ of 9.66 pg g⁻¹ fat, for an overall pooled sample of milk from 2010. An apparent slight increase in PCDFs was observed between 2002 and 2010 (from 2.73 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat to 3.21 pg WHO-TEQ g⁻¹ fat), with the main contributory congener being 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF. While it cannot be totally discounted that the slight increase in 2,3,4,7,8-PentaCDF and in the overall PCDF WHO-TEQ in breast milk could be attributable to consumption of Irish pork during the 2008 incident, we consider that it is more likely that this was due to other factors, including the predominantly urban/industrial sampling locations for the 2010 samples, compared to 2002.