利用卫星数据估算波罗的海的透明度和透光层深度

波罗的海水体透明度的长期变化趋势已按富营养化的观点加以解释[1,2].可以通过遥感数据估算得到光谱衰减系数Kd(490)[3].由于漫衰减系数与透明度之间存在着经验和理论关系,因此,利用遥感数据估算海水营养状态是可能的.本文研究了遥感和水下实测Kd(490)与分别于1999年在东波罗的海本体海区[4]和2001年、2002年在西波罗的海本体海区/希默海区(Himmerfjarden)专门海上观测中获得的透明度之间的关系.利用水下测量值通过回归分析方法建立波罗的海PAR与光谱衰减系数间的关系.分析表明,在调查海区,Kd(490)约为Kd(PAR)的1.48倍.该关系用于定义透光层深度与遥感光学深度Kd(490)-1间的关系.结果表明,透光层深度约是Kd(490)-1的6.8倍.Kd(PAR)与透明度的回归分析结果证实了已有的研究结果,即Kd(PAR)为透明度倒数的1.7倍.再者,透明度与Kd(490)之间的水体成分反演算法用于模拟制作由SeaWiFS Kd(490)获得的波罗的海透明度分布图.该分布图通过海上实测数据加以验证,对卫星遥感获得的Kd(490)与实测Kd(490)做了对比,并讨论了产生误差的原因.     

Spatial and temporal land use and carbon stock changes in Uganda: implications for a future REDD strategy

Using a map overlay procedure in a Geographical Information System environment, we quantify and map major land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns in Uganda period 1990–2005 and determine whether the transitions were random or systematic. The analysis reveals that the most dominant systematic land use change processes were deforestation (woodland to subsistence farmland—3.32%); forest degradation (woodland to bushland (4.01%) and grassland (4.08%) and bush/grassland conversion to cropland (5.5%) all resulting in a net reduction in forests (6.1%). Applying an inductive approach based on logistic regression and trend analyses of observed changes we analyzed key drivers of LULC change. Significant predictors of forest land use change included protection status, market access, poverty, slope, soil quality and presence/absence of a stream network. Market access, poverty and population all decreased the log odds of retaining forests. In addition, poverty also increased the likelihood of degradation. An increase in slope decreased the likelihood of deforestation. Using the stock change and gain/loss approaches we estimated the change in forest carbon stocks and emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Results indicate a negligible increase in forest carbon stocks (3,260 t C yr-1) in the period 1990–2005 when compared to the emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation (2.67 million t C yr-1). In light of the dominant forest land use change patterns, the drivers and change in carbon stocks, we discuss options which could be pursued to implement a future national REDD plus strategy which considers livelihood, biodiversity and climate change mitigation objectives.     

Behavioural responses of Diana monkeys to male long-distance calls: changes in ranging,association patterns and activity

Although much is known about the relationship between vigilance, group size and predation risk, behavioural responses to predation risk and their resultant costs are less clear. We investigated the response of Diana monkeys to increased predation risk by looking at behavioural changes associated with male long-distance calls, which are reliably given to certain predators. After male long-distance calls, group spread and nearest-neighbour distance decreased whilst travel and association rates for the group increased. The average height and exposure level of individuals in the group did not change after calls. Individual Diana monkeys changed their behaviour and were more likely to be vigilant or travel and less likely to engage in social or resting behaviours after long-distance calls. In addition, movement rates increased with the number of species the Diana monkeys were associated with. Diana monkey long-distance calls facilitate the joining of groups of other species. Black and white colobus and lesser spot-nosed monkeys were more likely to be in an association following a long-distance call than before. Behavioural responses, such as increased travel or association rates, that reduce foraging efficiency are interpreted as evidence of a non-lethal impact of increased predation risk.     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Projecting biodiversity benefits of conservation behavior-change programs

Biodiversity loss is driven by human behavior, but there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of behavior-change programs in delivering benefits to biodiversity. To demonstrate their value, the biodiversity benefits and cost-effectiveness of behavior changes that directly or indirectly affect biodiversity need to be quantified. We adapted a structured decision-making prioritization tool to determine the potential biodiversity benefits of behavior changes. As a case study, we examined two hypothetical behavior-change programs––wildlife gardening and cat containment––by asking experts to consider the behaviors associated with these programs that directly and indirectly affect biodiversity. We assessed benefits to southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) and superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus) by eliciting from experts estimates of the probability of each species persisting in the landscape given a range of behavior-change scenarios in which uptake of the behaviors varied. We then compared these estimates to a business-as-usual scenario to determine the relative biodiversity benefit and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. Experts projected that the behavior-change programs would benefit biodiversity and that benefits would rise with increasing uptake of the target behaviors. Biodiversity benefits were also predicted to accrue through indirect behaviors, although experts disagreed about the magnitude of additional benefit provided. Scenarios that combined the two behavior-change programs were estimated to provide the greatest benefits to species and be most cost-effective. Our method could be used in other contexts and potentially at different scales and advances the use of prioritization tools to guide conservation behavior-change programs.     

Vivianite precipitation and phosphate sorption following iron reduction in anoxic soils

Phosphorus retention in lowland soils depends on redox conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the Fe(III) reduction degree affects phosphate adsorption and precipitation. Two similarly P-saturated, ferric Fe-rich lowland soils, a sandy and a peat soil, were incubated under anaerobic conditions. M?ssbauer spectroscopy demonstrated that Fe(III) in the sandy soil was present as goethite and phyllosilicates, whereas Fe(III) in the peat soil was mainly present as polynuclear, Fe-humic complexes. Following anoxic incubation, extensive formation of Fe(II) in the solids occurred. After 100 d, the Fe(II) production reached its maximum and 34% of the citrate-bicarbonate-dithionite extractable Fe (Fe(CBD)) was reduced to Fe(II) in the sandy soil. The peat soil showed a much faster reduction of Fe(III) and the maximum reduction of 89% of Fe(CBD) was reached after 200 d. Neoformation of a metavivianite/vivianite phase under anoxic conditions was identified by X-ray diffraction in the peat. The sandy soil exhibited small changes in the point of zero net sorption (EPC?) and P(i) desorption with increasing Fe(III) reduction, whereas in the peat soil P desorption increased from 80 to 3100 μmol kg?1 and EPC? increased from 1.7 to 83 μM, after 322 d of anoxic incubation. The fast Fe(III) reduction made the peat soils particularly vulnerable to changes in redox conditions. However, the precipitation of vivianite/metavivianite minerals may control soluble P(i) concentrations to between 2 and 3 μM in the long term if the soil is not disturbed.