Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.     

Green Toxicology: a strategy for sustainable chemical and material development

Green Toxicology refers to the application of predictive toxicology in the sustainable development and production of new less harmful materials and chemicals, subsequently reducing waste and exposure. Built upon the foundation of “Green Chemistry” and “Green Engineering”, “Green Toxicology” aims to shape future manufacturing processes and safe synthesis of chemicals in terms of environmental and human health impacts. Being an integral part of Green Chemistry, the principles of Green Toxicology amplify the role of health-related aspects for the benefit of consumers and the environment, in addition to being economical for manufacturing companies. Due to the costly development and preparation of new materials and chemicals for market entry, it is no longer practical to ignore the safety and environmental status of new products during product development stages. However, this is only possible if toxicologists and chemists work together early on in the development of materials and chemicals to utilize safe design strategies and innovative in vitro and in silico tools. This paper discusses some of the most relevant aspects, advances and limitations of the emergence of Green Toxicology from the perspective of different industry and research groups. The integration of new testing methods and strategies in product development, testing and regulation stages are presented with examples of the application of in silico, omics and in vitro methods. Other tools for Green Toxicology, including the reduction of animal testing, alternative test methods, and read-across approaches are also discussed.     

Quantification of nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems by use of a process oriented biogeochemical model

Simulations with the process oriented Forest-DNDC model showed reasonable to good agreement with observations of soil water contents of different soil layers, annual amounts of seepage water and approximated rates of nitrate leaching at 79 sites across Germany. Following site evaluation, Forest-DNDC was coupled to a GIS to assess nitrate leaching from German forest ecosystems for the year 2000. At national scale leaching rates varied in a range of 0–>80 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (mean 5.5 kg NO₃–N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). A comparison of regional simulations with the results of a nitrate inventory study for Bavaria showed that measured and simulated percentages for different nitrate leaching classes (0–5 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:66% vs. 74%, 5–15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:20% vs. 20%, >15 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹:14% vs. 6%) were in good agreement. Mean nitrate concentrations in seepage water ranged between 0 and 23 mg NO₃–N l⁻¹.     

Mechanisms of purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) encroachment in dry heathland ecosystems with chronic nitrogen inputs

We analysed growth strategies (biomass allocation, nutrient sequestration and allocation) of heather (Calluna vulgaris) and purple moor-grass (Molinia caerulea) seedlings in monocultures and mixtures in relation to N, P, and N + P fertilisation in a greenhouse experiment in order to simulate a heath’s pioneer phase under high airborne nitrogen (N) loads. N fertilisation increased the total biomass of both species in monocultures. In mixtures, M. caerulea sequestered about 65% of the N applied, while C. vulgaris suffered from N shortage (halving of the total biomass). Thus, in mixtures only M. caerulea will benefit from airborne N loads, and competition will become increasingly asymmetric with increasing N availability. Our results demonstrate that the heath’s pioneer phase is the crucial tipping point at which the competitive vigour of M. caerulea (high belowground allocation, efficient use of belowground resources, shortened reproductive cycles) induces a shift to dominance of grasses under increased N availability.     

The progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science

Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social–ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social–ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social–ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.     

Characterisation of PM10 emissions from woodstove combustion of common woods grown in Portugal

A series of source tests was performed to evaluate the chemical composition of particle emissions from the woodstove combustion of four prevalent Portuguese species of woods: Pinus pinaster (maritime pine), Eucalyptus globulus (eucalyptus), Quercus suber (cork oak) and Acacia longifolia (golden wattle). Analyses included water-soluble ions, metals, radionuclides, organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC), humic-like substances (HULIS), cellulose and approximately l80 organic compounds. Particle (PM₁₀) emission factors from eucalyptus and oak were higher than those from pine and acacia. The carbonaceous matter represented 44–63% of the particulate mass emitted during the combustion process, regardless of species burned. The major organic components of smoke particles, for all the wood species studied, with the exception of the golden wattle (0.07–1.9% w/w), were anhydrosugars (0.2–17% w/w). Conflicting with what was expected, only small amounts of cellulose were found in wood smoke. As for HULIS, average particle mass concentrations ranged from 1.5% to 3.0%. The golden wattle wood smoke presented much higher concentrations of ions and metal species than the emissions from the other wood types. The results of the analysis of radionuclides revealed that the ²²⁶Ra was the naturally occurring radionuclide more enriched in PM₁₀. The chromatographically resolved organics included n-alkanes, n-alkenes, PAH, oxygenated PAH, n-alkanals, ketones, n-alkanols, terpenoids, triterpenoids, phenolic compounds, phytosterols, alcohols, n-alkanoic acids, n-di-acids, unsaturated acids and alkyl ester acids.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.     

Diagnosing institutional barriers and opportunities for adaptation to climate change

Institutions are one of the decisive factors which enable, constrain and shape adaptation to the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme events. However, current understanding of institutions in adaptation situations is fragmented across the scientific community, evidence diverges, and cumulative learning beyond single studies is limited. This study adopts a diagnostic approach to elaborate a nuanced understanding of institutional barriers and opportunities in climate adaptation by means of a model-centred meta-analysis of 52 case studies of public climate adaptation in Europe. The first result is a novel taxonomy of institutional attributes in adaptation situations. It conceptually organises and decomposes the many details of institutions that empirical research has shown to shape climate adaptation. In the second step, the paper identifies archetypical patterns of institutional traps and trade-offs which hamper adaptation. Thirdly, corresponding opportunities are identified that enable actors to alleviate, prevent or overcome specific institutional traps or trade-offs. These results cast doubt on the validity of general institutional design principles for successful adaptation. In contrast to generic principles, the identified opportunities provide leverage to match institutions to specific governance problems that are encountered in specific contexts. Taken together, the results may contribute to more coherence and integration of adaptation research that we need if we are to foster learning about the role of institutions in adaptation situations in a cumulative fashion.