Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Field uptake rates of hydrophobic organic contaminants by semipermeable membrane devices: environmental monitoring considerations

The uptake rates of selected hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) by semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs)--a polyethylene layflat containing the lipid triolein--were investigated under natural conditions. SPMDs were exposed in three sampling sites (industrial, urban, and agricultural areas) in the Tajo River (Toledo, Spain) for 5, 11 and 20 d. The organochlorine compounds 4,4'-DDT, 4,4'-DDE, alpha-HCH, gamma-HCH, pentachlorobenzene, hexachlorobenzene, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and the 16 priority pollutant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were detected in the SPMDs deployed in the three sampling sites. A linear uptake rate was found for DDTs and for 4-Cl- and 5-Cl-substituted PCB congeners in all sampling sites. Concentrations of HCHs (80.3 ng g(-1) SPMD for alpha-HCH and 109 ng g(-1) SPMD for gamma-HCH after 20 d of exposure) increased according to a linear uptake rate in the SPMDs deployed in the sampling site located in the agricultural area. Likewise, a marked increase of total PAH concentration (up to 300 ng g(-1) SPMD after 20 d of exposure) was solely found in the sampling site situated near a thermoelectric power station. Examination of individual PAHs revealed that PAHs with log K(OW) between 4.2 and 5.7 displayed a linear uptake rate over the 20 d of exposure. Water concentrations (ng L(-1)) of HCB (0.80-2.48), lindane (1.30-11.5), 4,4'-DDT (0.61-2.02), 4,4'-DDE (6.89-11.6) and total PAHs (12.0-26.7) estimated by a linear uptake kinetic model were found to be high in comparison with other polluted aquatic systems, and similar to concentrations in other Spanish rivers. Our results suggest that SPMD kinetic uptake studies in the natural environment are recommended for identifying point-pollution sources, and that shorter times of SPMD exposure (approximately 1 week) are desirable to minimize one of the main problems of field SPMD deployment, i.e., the biofouling, which negatively affects the estimation of the dissolved HOC concentrations.     

Temporal pessimism and spatial optimism in environmental assessments: An 18-nation study

The personal assessments of the current and expected future state of the environment by 3232 community respondents in 18 nations were investigated at the local, national, and global spatial levels. These assessments were compared to a ranking of each country's environmental quality by an expert panel. Temporal pessimism (“things will get worse”) was found in the assessments at all three spatial levels. Spatial optimism bias (“things are better here than there”) was found in the assessments of current environmental conditions in 15 of 18 countries, but not in the assessments of the future. All countries except one exhibited temporal pessimism, but significant differences between them were common. Evaluations of current environmental conditions also differed by country. Citizens' assessments of current conditions, and the degree of comparative optimism, were strongly correlated with the expert panel's assessments of national environmental quality. Aside from the value of understanding global trends in environmental assessments, the results have important implications for environmental policy and risk management strategies.     

Biosorption of mercury by Macrocystis pyrifera and Undaria pinnatifida: Influence of zinc, cadmium and nickel

The article investigated the adsorption of Hg(II) on Macrocystis pyrifera and Undaria pinnatifida in monometallic system and in the presence of Zn(II), Cd(II) and Ni(II).     

Interactive effects of UV radiation and enhanced temperature on photosynthesis, phlorotannin induction and antioxidant activities of two sub-Antarctic brown algae

Lessonia nigrescens and Durvillaea antarctica, two large sub-Antarctic brown algae from the southern Chilean coast, were exposed to solar UV radiation in an outdoor system during a summer day (for 11 h) as well as to artificial UV radiation under controlled laboratory conditions at two temperatures (15 and 20 °C) for 72 h. Chlorophyll a fluorescence–based photoinhibition of photosynthesis was measured during the outdoor exposure, while electron transport rates, lipid peroxidation, antioxidant activity and content of phlorotannins were determined at different time intervals during the laboratory exposure. Under natural solar irradiances in summer, both species displayed well-developed dynamic photoinhibition: F _v/F _m values decreased by 70 % at noon coinciding with the levels of PAR >1,500 μmol m^?2 s^?1 and UV-B radiation >1 W m^?2 and recovered substantially in the afternoon. In treatments including UV radiation, recovery in D. antarctica started already during the highest irradiances at noon. The results from laboratory exposures revealed that (a) elevated temperature of 20 °C exacerbated the detrimental effects of UV radiation on photochemical parameters (F _v/F _m and ETR); (b) peroxidative damage measured as MDA formation occurred rapidly and was strongly correlated with the decrease in F _v/F _m, especially at elevated temperature of 20 °C; (c) the antioxidant activity and increases in soluble phlorotannins were positively correlated mainly in response to UV radiation; (d) phlorotannins were rapidly induced but strongly impaired at 20 °C. In general, short-term (2–6 h) exposures to enhanced UV radiation and temperature were effective to activate the photochemical and biochemical defenses against oxidative stress, and they continued operative during 72 h, a time span clearly exceeding the tidal or diurnal period. Furthermore, when algae were exposed to dim light and control temperature of 15 °C for 6 h, F _v/F _m increased and lipid peroxidation decreased, indicating consistently that algae retained their ability for recovery. D. antarctica was the most sensitive species to elevated temperature for prolonged periods in the laboratory. Although no conclusive evidence for the effect of the buoyancy of fronds was found, the interspecific discrepancies in thermo-sensitivity in the UV responses found in this study are consistent with various ecological and biogeographical differences described for these species.     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.