Capturing market impacts of farm level policies: a statistical extrapolation approach using biophysical characteristics and farm resources

Technical change at the farm level or changes in input prices often have an impact on the firm's supply function, which in turn affect their economic and environmental performance. These changes can take place in numerous ways. This paper presents a methodology that increases the consistency of supply responses across various sets of agricultural products and most representative farm typologies in Europe, with a market model based on a statistical response function approach. Since most farm simulation models are limited to a subset of regions and farm types, the linkage to an aggregated model requires a procedure for expanding these results to non-sample regions to achieve full regional coverage. This paper addresses theoretical aspects related to the consistency between micro and market level models. The proposed approach is applied using a consistent set of simulation results from farm models in seven European regions. Our results show a fairly stable behaviour of the farm models considered for the analysis and quite good fit of the estimated response surface. As results are still preliminary we critically reflect on the applicability of this method in addressing further needs on up-scaling of other economic as well as environmental indicators.     

Simultaneous CO2 injection and water production to optimise aquifer storage capacity

The estimates for geological CO₂ storage capacity worldwide vary, but it is generally believed that the capacity in saline aquifers will be sufficient for the amounts of CO₂ that will need to be stored. The effort required to select and qualify a geological storage site for safe storage will, however, be significant and storage capacity may be a limited resource regionally. Both from a economic and resource management perspective it is therefore important that potential storage sites are exploited to their full potential.In static capacity estimates, where the maximum stored amount of CO₂ is given as a fraction of the formation pore volume, typically arrive at efficiency factors in the range of a few per cents. Recent work has shown that when the dynamic behaviour of the injected CO₂ is taken into account, the efficiency factor will be reduced because of the increase in pore pressure in the region around the injection well(s). The increase in pore pressure will propagate much further than the CO₂. The EU directive on geological CO₂ storage specifically addresses the restriction that will apply when different storage sites are interacting due to pressure communication. Consequently, the pore pressure increase at the boundary of the storage license area will be an important limiting factor for the amount of CO₂ that can be injected.One obvious method to control the pore pressure is to produce water from the aquifer at some distance from the CO₂ injection wells. This paper discusses results from simulations of CO₂ injection in two aquifers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf; the Johansen aquifer and the southern part of the Utsira aquifer. These aquifers are candidates for injection of CO₂ shipped out via pipeline from the Norwegian West Coast. The injected amounts of CO₂ over a period of 50 years are 0.518 Gtonne for the Johansen aquifer and 1.04 Gtonne for the Utsira aquifer.Several design options for the injection operations are investigated: Injection of CO₂ without water production; injection into several wells to distribute the injected fluids and reduce the local pressure increase around each injection well; and injection with simultaneous production of water from one or more wells. The boundaries of the aquifer formations are assumed closed in all simulations. The possible consequences of other types of boundary conditions (semi-closed or open) are briefly discussed.     

Screening for Stockholm Convention persistent organic pollutants in the Bosna River (Bosnia and Herzogovina)

The Stockholm Convention, which aspires to manage persistent organic pollutants (POPs) at the international level, was recently ratified in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Despite this fact, there is in general a paucity of data regarding the levels of POPs in the environment in BiH. In the present study, screening for POPs was conducted in one of the country’s major rivers, the Bosna. A two-pronged approach was applied using passive samplers to detect the freely dissolved and bioavailable concentrations in the water phase and sediment analysis to provide an integrated measure of historical contamination. At several places along the river, the concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were high and exhibited potential for both chronic and acute effects to biota. River water also showed elevated concentrations of PAH, up to 480 ng L^?1 near the city of Doboj, and diagnostic ratios suggested combustion sources for the contamination present in both types of sample. The levels of the other contaminants measured—polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers—were generally low in the water phase. However, PCBs and some OCPs were present in river sediments at levels which breach the international criteria and thus suggest potential for ecological damage. Additionally, the levels of heptachlor breached these criteria in many of the sites investigated. This study presents the first screening data for some of these Stockholm Convention relevant compounds in BiH and reveals both low concentrations of some chemical groups, but significant point sources and historic contamination for others.     

Building resilience into emergency management

Emergency management faces a changed reality in terms of possibilities and threats with use of new technology. Due to the ongoing changes in the operation of oil and gas production, different constellations of actors in a distributed system are built. This introduces opportunities for planning and operation. At the same time as new technology offers opportunities, the technology-enabled distributed network of actors generate challenges for emergency handling. The purpose of the study presented has been to look for possibilities for making emergency management more resilient by becoming a part of continuous risk and hazard management. The suggested three main elements that are important to consider in the development of future emergency management are (1) proactive emergency management through early risk anticipation; and emergency management’s adaptation to new and future work practices such as (2) distributed actors and (3) new technology. Based on these results we suggest broadening the scope of emergency management to systematically include monitoring, anticipation, responding and learning.     

Spatial Trends of Trace-Element Contamination in Recently Deposited Lake Sediment Around the Ni–Cu Smelter at Nikel, Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic

A large copper–nickel smelter complex is located at the Kole Penninsula, Russia, close to the Norwegian border. Trace-element concentrations in surface sediments (0–0.5 cm) and pre-industrial sediments from 45 lakes in the region were used to uncover spatial deposition patterns and contamination factor of sediments. Elevated concentrations were found, especially for Ni and Cu, but also for Pb, Co, Hg, As, and Cd. Highest concentrations were found up to 20 km from the smelter, but the concentrations decreased exponentially with distance from the smelter. Increasing Ni, Cu, As, and Hg concentrations from sub-surface to surface sediments were found for lakes at intermediate distances (20–60 km). This may reflect recent changes in atmospheric depositions, as shown in nearby Norwegian areas. However, we cannot rule out that this also may have been caused by diagenetic processes, especially for the most redox-sensitive elements such as As.     

Is there a need for new theories,models and approaches to occupational accident prevention?

This paper discusses occupational accident modelling challenges associated with a changing working life, and asks whether ideas from models developed for high-risk, complex socio-technical systems can be transformed and adapted for use in occupational accident prevention. Are occupational accidents mainly simple component failures or is a systemic approach to the phenomenon of some interest and value?     

The insurance market’s influence on investments in safety measures

In a risky process there are three alternative ways to treat the negative consequences of the risk or the accident. We can: (1) take all the consequences when an accidental event occurs, (2) reduce the probability and/or the consequences of an accidental event by safety measures or (3) transfer the consequences of the occurrence to parties better able to carry them (i.e. buying insurance). In safety management a prevailing practice is that access to an insurance market does not affect the investment in safety measures. In this paper we discuss what the consequences are of this common practice in relation to insurance and mandatory safety requirements. We conclude that an overinvestment in safety measures is very likely if insurance is not taken into account. Moreover, mandatory safety measures and insurance can lead to both over- and underinvestment in safety measures.