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Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.  相似文献   
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The microbial part of the pelagic food web is seldom characterized in models despite its major contribution to biogeochemical cycles. In the Baltic Sea, spatial and temporal high frequency sampling over three years revealed changes in heterotrophic bacteria and phytoplankton coupling (biomass and production) related to hydrographic properties of the ecosystem. Phyto- and bacterioplankton were bottom-up driven in both coastal and offshore areas. Cold winter temperature was essential for phytoplankton to conform to the successional sequence in temperate waters. In terms of annual carbon production, the loss of the spring bloom (diatoms and dinoflagellates) after mild winters tended not to be compensated for by other taxa, not even summer cyanobacteria. These results improve our ability to project Baltic Sea ecosystem response to short- and long-term environmental changes.  相似文献   
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Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.  相似文献   
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Urban forests are popular recreation areas in Europe. Several of these temperate broad-leaved forests also have a high conservation value due to sustainable management over many centuries. Recreational activities, particularly the use of fireplaces, can cause extensive damage to soil, ground vegetation, shrubs, and trees. Firewood collection depletes woody debris, leading to a loss of habitat for specialized organisms. We examined the effects of fireplace use on forest vegetation and the amount of woody debris by comparing disturbed and control plots in suburban forests in northwestern Switzerland. At frequently used fireplaces, we found reduced species densities in the ground vegetation and shrub layer and changes in plant species composition due to human trampling within an area of 150–200 m2. Picnicking and grilling also reduced the height and changed the age structure of shrubs and young trees. The amount of woody debris was lower in disturbed plots than in control plots. Pieces of wood with a diameter of 0.6–7.6 cm were preferentially collected by fireplace users. The reduction in woody debris volume extended up to a distance of 16 m from the fire ring, covering an area of 800 m2 at each picnic site. In order to preserve the ecological integrity of urban forests and to maintain their attractiveness as important recreation areas, we suggest depositing logging residues to be used as firewood and to restrict visitor movements near picnic sites.  相似文献   
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A study of the in vitro sensitivity of 12 isolates of Phytophthora infestans to metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, dimethomorph, cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb, was conducted. The isolates derived from infected potato leaves collected at eight different localities in Serbia during 2005-2007. The widest range of EC(50) values for mycelial growth of the isolates was recorded for metalaxyl. They varied from 0.3 to 3.9 μg mL(-1) and were higher than those expected in a susceptible population of P. infestans. The EC(50) values of the isolates were 0.16-0.30 μg mL(-1) for dimethomorph, 0.27-0.57 μg mL(-1) for cymoxanil, 0.0026-0.0049 μg mL(-1) for zoxamide and 2.9-5.0 μg mL(-1) for mancozeb. The results indicated that according to effective concentration (EC(50)) the 12 isolates of P. infestans were sensitive to azoxystrobin (0.019-0.074 μg mL(-1)), and intermediate resistant to metalaxyl, dimethomorph and cymoxanil. According to resistance factor, all P. infestans isolates were sensitive to dimethomorph, cymoxanil, mancozeb and zoxamide, 58.3% of isolates were sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl. Gout's scale indicated that 41.7% isolates were moderately sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl.  相似文献   
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Twenty microfungal isolates were collected from diseased fruiting bodies of Agaricus bisporus sampled from Serbian mushroom farms during 2003–2007. Based on morphological characteristics and pathogenicity tests, the isolates were identified as Cladobotryum dendroides. The isolates of C. dendroides and A. bisporusF56 and U3 were tested for sensitivity to several selected fungicides in vitro. C. dendroides isolates were found to be more sensitive to prochloraz manganese and flusilazole + carbendazim than to the other fungicides tested (EC50 values were 0.09 and 0.11 mg L? 1, respectively) and weakly resistant to thiophanate-methyl (EC50 values ranged between 6.53 and 12.09 mg L? 1). Selectivity indexes of the tested fungicides on both C. dendroidesand A. bisporusindicated that thiophanate-methyl, cyproconazole + carbendazim and flusilazole + carbendazim had much less selective fungitoxicity than benomyl, carbendazim and prochloraz manganese.  相似文献   
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We studied issues of organophosphorus agents’ analysis. Immobilised enzyme–inhibitors complexes (e.g. acetylcholinesterase-organophosphate nerve agent) were studied with modified Ellman’s biochemical method utilised for assessment of acetylcholinesterase activity. Biochemical reactions are widespread and they are the most frequent used analytical methods for determination of nerve agents. This modified method is based on the nucleophilic reactions of mono- and bispyridinium aldoximes of a type 2-PAM, MMB-4 and HI-6, their homologues and isomers with enzyme–inhibitor complexes. The procedure for a gradual analysis of G and V type, Sarin, Cyclohexylsarin, Soman, Tabun, agent VX and R-33 was proposed in terms of studied nucleophilic substitution reactions quantification results. This method enables selective determination of these chemical warfare agents. A gradual analysis was evaluated by statistic method of probabilistic calculus. This type of analysis can be used for assessment of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors in very low concentrations close to hygienic limits.  相似文献   
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