A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

A hybrid micro-scale model for transport in connected macro-pores in porous media

This paper presents a hybrid model for transport in connected macro-pores in porous media. A pore-scale model is used to parameterize the hybrid model. The hybrid model explicitly models the advection and diffusion of species in the connected macro-pores and treats the porous media around the connected macro-pores as a continuum with effective transport properties. The pore-scale model is used to calculate the effective transport properties of the porous continuum. This approach negates the need to calibrate the hybrid model against experimental data, which is common for continuum-scale models of porous media, and allows an arbitrary microstructure to be considered. The paper presents the multi-scale modeling approach along with the details of the hybrid and pore-scale models. Validation of the model is also presented along with several case studies investigating the applicability of the multi-scale modeling approach to different geometries and transport conditions. The case studies show that the multi-scale modeling approach is accurate for various connected macro-pore geometries given that the porosity of the porous medium around the connected macro-pores is sufficiently small. The accuracy of the hybrid model decreases with increasing porosity of the matrix.     

Effects of initial saturation on properties modification and displacement of tetrachloroethene with aqueous isobutanol

Packed column experiments were conducted to study effects of initial saturation of tetrachloroethene (PCE) in the range of 1.0-14% pore volume (PV) on mobilization and downward migration of the non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) product upon contact with aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10 vol.%). This study focused on the consequences of swelling beyond residual saturation. Columns were packed with mixtures of neat PCE, water and glass beads and waterflooded to establish a desired homogeneous residual saturation, and then flooded with aqueous isobutanol under controlled hydraulic conditions. Results showed a critical saturation of approximately 8% PV for these packed column experimental conditions. At low initial PCE saturations (<8% PV), experimental results showed reduced risk of NAPL-product migration upon contact with aqueous isobutanol. At higher initial PCE saturations (>8% PV), results showed NAPL-product mobilization and downward migration which was attributed to interfacial tension (IFT) reduction, swelling of the NAPL-product, and reduced density modification. Packed column results were compared with good agreement to theoretical predictions of NAPL-product mobilization using the total trapping number, N(T). In addition to the packed column study, preliminary batch experiments were conducted to study the effects of PCE volumetric fraction in the range of 0.5-20% on density, viscosity, and IFT modification as a function of time following contact with aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10 vol.%). Modified NAPL-product fluid properties approached equilibrium within approximately 2 h of contact for density and viscosity. IFT reduction occurred immediately as expected. Measured fluid properties were compared with good agreement to theoretical equilibrium predictions based on UNIQUAC. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of initial DNAPL saturation, and the associated risk of downward NAPL-product migration, in applying alcohol flooding for remediation of DNAPL contaminated ground water sites.     

Dip-angle influence on areal DNAPL recovery by co-solvent flooding with and without pre-flooding

A two-dimensional (2D) laboratory model was used to study effects of gravity on areal recovery of a representative dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminant by an alcohol pre-flood and co-solvent flood in dipping aquifers. Recent studies have demonstrated that injection of alcohol and co-solvent solutions can be used to reduce in-situ the density of DNAPL globules and displace the contaminant from the source zone. However, contact with aqueous alcohol reduces interfacial tension and causes DNAPL swelling, thus facilitating risk of uncontrolled downward DNAPL migration. The 2D laboratory model was operated with constant background gradient flow and a DNAPL spill was simulated using tetrachloroethene (PCE). The spill was dispersed to a trapped, immobile PCE saturation by a water flood. Areal PCE recovery was studied using a double-triangle well pattern to simulate a remediation scheme consisting of an alcohol pre-flood using aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10% vol.) followed by a co-solvent flood using a solution of ethylene glycol (65%) and 1-propanol (35%). Experiments were conducted with the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane and compared to experiments at the 15 degrees and 30 degrees dip-angle orientations. Injection was applied either in the downward or upward direction of flow. Experimental results were compared to theoretical predictions for flood front stability and used to evaluate effects of gravity on areal PCE recovery. Sensitivity experiments were performed to evaluate effects of the alcohol pre-flood on PCE areal recovery. For experiments conducted with the alcohol pre-flood and the 2D model oriented in the horizontal plane, results indicate that 89-93% of source zone PCE was recovered. With injection oriented downward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 70-77% for a 15 degrees dip angle and 57-59% for a 30 degrees dip angle. With injection oriented upward, results indicate that areal PCE recovery was 57-60% at the 30 degrees dip angle, which was similar to PCE recovery for injection in the downward flow direction. Lower areal PCE recovery at greater dip angles in either direction of flow was attributed to DNAPL swelling and migration, flood front instabilities and bypassing of the displaced fluid past the extraction wells during the alcohol pre-flood. Additional results demonstrate that the use of an alcohol pre-flood can be beneficial in improving DNAPL recovery in the horizontal orientation, but pre-flooding may reduce areal recovery efficiency in dip-angle orientations. This study also demonstrates the use of theoretical perturbation (fingering) analysis in predicting NAPL recovery efficiency for flooding processes in remediating aquifers with dip angles.     

Spatial characteristics of fine particulate matter: identifying representative monitoring locations in Seattle, Washington

This study investigates how PM2.5 varies spatially and how these spatial characteristics can be used to identify potential monitoring sites that are most representative of the overall ambient exposures to PM2.5 among susceptible populations in the Seattle, WA, area. Data collected at outdoor sites at the homes of participants of a large exposure assessment study were used in this study. Harvard impactors (HIs) were used at 40 outdoor sites throughout the Seattle metropolitan area. Up to six sites at a time were monitored for 10 consecutive 24-hr average periods. A fixed-effect analysis of variance (ANOVA) model that included date and location effects was used to analyze the spatial variability of outdoor PM2.5 concentrations. Both date and location effects were shown to be highly significant, explaining 92% of the variability in outdoor PM2.5 measurements. The day-to-day variability was 10 times higher than the spatial variability between sites. The site mean square was more than twice the error mean square, showing that differences between sites, while modest, are potentially an important contribution to measurement error. Variances of the model residuals and site effects were examined against spatial characteristics of the monitoring sites. The spatial characteristics included elevation, distance from arterials, and distance from major PM2.5 point sources. Results showed that the most representative PM2.5 sites were located at elevations of 80-120 m above sea level, and at distances of 100-300 m from the nearest arterial road. Location relative to industrial PM2.5 sources is not a significant predictor of residential outdoor PM2.5 measurements. Additionally, for sites to be representative of the average population exposures to PM2.5 among those highly susceptible to the health effects of PM2.5, areas of high elderly population density were considered. These representative spatial characteristics were used as multiple, overlapping criteria in a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis to determine where the most representative sites are located.     

A laboratory experiment testing the antecedents of leader cognitions

A laboratory experiment was conducted to test relationships between leadership style, feedback on subordinate performance within the context of either the vision or goals of the organization, and leader cognitions representing a modified version of Wofford and Goodwin's (1994) cognitive processing model of leadership. The results indicated that: (1) positive feedback leads to the access of transformational cognitions, whereas negative feedback leads to the access of transactional cognitions; (2) negative feedback about subordinate performance causes transformational leaders to access transactional cognitions in response to subordinates; (3) the relationship between transformational leadership behavior and transformational cognitions is strengthened when feedback received about subordinates is vision‐related compared to feedback that is goal‐related; and (4) the relationship between transactional leadership behavior and transactional cognitions is strengthened when feedback received is goal‐related compared to feedback that is vision‐related. Limitations and future research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Research priorities for managing the impacts and dependencies of business upon food,energy, water and the environment

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the ‘nexus’ of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.     

Assessing four methods for establishing native plants on urban vacant land

Urban greening increases vegetation and can restore ecological functions to urban systems. It has ties to restoration ecology, which aims to return degraded land to diverse, functional ecosystems. Both practices can be applied to maximizing ecosystem services and habitat in vacant lots, which are abundant in post-industrial cities, including Chicago, Illinois (USA), where our study took place. We tested four methods for increasing native plant diversity in vacant lots, ranging from low input to resource-intensive: seed bombing, broadcast seeding, planting plugs, and gardening. After three growing seasons, we assessed the growth of eight target native species and all non-target species. We expected that intensive treatments would have more target species stems and flowers and fewer non-target species, but we found that less-intensive options often produce equal or better results. From this, we recommend broadcast seeding as a viable, low-cost method for improving habitat and biodiversity in vacant lots.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01383-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Miscanthus for Renewable Energy Generation: European Union Experience and Projections for Illinois

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -