Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Water and sustainable development

In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building.     

Effects of calcium hydroxide and calcium chloride addition to bentonite in iron ore pelletization.

Pyrite ash is created as waste from the roasting of pyrite ores during the production of sulphuric acid. These processes generate great amounts of pyrite ash waste that is generally land filled. This creates serious environmental pollution due to the release of acids and toxic substances. Pyrite ash waste can be utilized in the iron production industry as a blast furnace feed to process this waste and prevent environmental pollution. The essential parameters affecting the pelletization process of pyrite ash were studied using bentonite as a binder. Experiments were then carried out using bentonite and a mixture of bentonite with calcium hydroxide and calcium chloride in order to make the bentonite more effective. The metallurgical properties of pyrite ash, bentonite, calcium hydroxide, calcium chloride, a mixture of these and sintered pellets were studied using X-ray analysis. The crushing strength tests were carried out to investigate the strength of pyrite ash waste pellets. The results of these analyses showed that pyrite ash can be agglomerated to pellets and used in the iron production industry as a blast furnace feed. The crushing strength of the pellets containing calcium hydroxide and calcium chloride in addition to bentonite was better than the strength of pellets prepared using only bentonite binder.     

Working backwards to move forwards: Graph-based connectivity metrics for reserve network selection

In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance.     

Suggested protocol for collecting, handling and preparing peat cores and peat samples for physical, chemical, mineralogical and isotopic analyses

For detailed reconstructions of atmospheric metal deposition using peat cores from bogs, a comprehensive protocol for working with peat cores is proposed. The first step is to locate and determine suitable sampling sites in accordance with the principal goal of the study, the period of time of interest and the precision required. Using the state of the art procedures and field equipment, peat cores are collected in such a way as to provide high quality records for paleoenvironmental study. Pertinent field observations gathered during the fieldwork are recorded in a field report. Cores are kept frozen at -18 degree C until they can be prepared in the laboratory. Frozen peat cores are precisely cut into 1 cm slices using a stainless steel band saw with stainless steel blades. The outside edges of each slice are removed using a titanium knife to avoid any possible contamination which might have occurred during the sampling and handling stage. Each slice is split, with one-half kept frozen for future studies (archived), and the other half further subdivided for physical, chemical, and mineralogical analyses. Physical parameters such as ash and water contents, the bulk density and the degree of decomposition of the peat are determined using established methods. A subsample is dried overnight at 105 degree C in a drying oven and milled in a centrifugal mill with titanium sieve. Prior to any expensive and time consuming chemical procedures and analyses, the resulting powdered samples, after manual homogenisation, are measured for more than twenty-two major and trace elements using non-destructive X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) methods. This approach provides lots of valuable geochemical data which documents the natural geochemical processes which occur in the peat profiles and their possible effect on the trace metal profiles. The development, evaluation and use of peat cores from bogs as archives of high-resolution records of atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and trace elements have led to the development of many analytical procedures which now permit the measurement of a wide range of elements in peat samples such as lead and lead isotope ratios, mercury, arsenic, antimony, silver, molybdenum, thorium, uranium, rare earth elements. Radiometric methods (the carbon bomb pulse of (14)C, (210)Pb and conventional (14)C dating) are combined to allow reliable age-depth models to be reconstructed for each peat profile.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.