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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building. 相似文献
3.
Fritz Nüßlein Ernst Anton Feicht Sigurd Schulte-Hostede Antonius Kettrup 《Environmental Sciences Europe》1997,9(3):136-142
A site contaminated by mercury serves as an example for evaluating the environmental medicine aspects of mercury emissions on individuals living in the surroundings. Based on defined, conventional scenarios, estimations of internal exposure were made for seven different age groups and with regard to such contact media as soil, air and food. Using human monitoring methods, an attempt was made to compare the epidemiological results. The site-specific and pathway-specific estimation of exposure is based on a multitude of various samples as well as on measurements of concentrations in the compartments relevant for intake. As based upon rigid guideline values, both these calculations and the epidemiological investigations reveal a slight increase in the mercury exposure. 相似文献
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Hereafter, an assessment of the ability of the chemiluminescence method to measure ambient NO2 with an accuracy within 15%, as requested by the data quality objective of European directive 1999/30/CE, is presented. In general, uncertainty is evaluated using the response to reference materials or by means of inter-comparisons used to determine some statistics like repeatability, reproducibility and calibration bias. These are incomplete approaches and the method of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, advised by the Directive, should be preferred. In fact, even if it requires a large data set, it allows the relative influence of all possible sources of uncertainty to be studied. The extent of NO2 uncertainty is mainly dependent on the level of NO. It is decreased by NOx and the correlation between NOx and NO. Furthermore, the uncertainty budget reveals that the contribution of accuracy of calibration standard, linearity, converter efficiency and drift of the analyser between calibration checks to the overall uncertainty is less important than the contribution of interference, mainly humidity and PAN in rural areas. The relative expanded uncertainty of the NO2 hourly average exceeds 30% for NO2 concentrations lower than 40 microg m(-3). Nevertheless, the data quality objective of 15% is reached for 200 microg m(-3), the hourly limit value of the European directive. On the contrary, at the limit value on the annual average, 40 microg m(-3), the data quality objective is not met if NO is higher than 100 microg m(-3). However, the data quality objective could be reached by correcting the measurements with the bias due to interference. 相似文献
7.
Givelet N Le Roux G Cheburkin A Chen B Frank J Goodsite ME Kempter H Krachler M Noernberg T Rausch N Rheinberger S Roos-Barraclough F Sapkota A Scholz C Shotyk W 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2004,6(5):481-492
For detailed reconstructions of atmospheric metal deposition using peat cores from bogs, a comprehensive protocol for working with peat cores is proposed. The first step is to locate and determine suitable sampling sites in accordance with the principal goal of the study, the period of time of interest and the precision required. Using the state of the art procedures and field equipment, peat cores are collected in such a way as to provide high quality records for paleoenvironmental study. Pertinent field observations gathered during the fieldwork are recorded in a field report. Cores are kept frozen at -18 degree C until they can be prepared in the laboratory. Frozen peat cores are precisely cut into 1 cm slices using a stainless steel band saw with stainless steel blades. The outside edges of each slice are removed using a titanium knife to avoid any possible contamination which might have occurred during the sampling and handling stage. Each slice is split, with one-half kept frozen for future studies (archived), and the other half further subdivided for physical, chemical, and mineralogical analyses. Physical parameters such as ash and water contents, the bulk density and the degree of decomposition of the peat are determined using established methods. A subsample is dried overnight at 105 degree C in a drying oven and milled in a centrifugal mill with titanium sieve. Prior to any expensive and time consuming chemical procedures and analyses, the resulting powdered samples, after manual homogenisation, are measured for more than twenty-two major and trace elements using non-destructive X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) methods. This approach provides lots of valuable geochemical data which documents the natural geochemical processes which occur in the peat profiles and their possible effect on the trace metal profiles. The development, evaluation and use of peat cores from bogs as archives of high-resolution records of atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and trace elements have led to the development of many analytical procedures which now permit the measurement of a wide range of elements in peat samples such as lead and lead isotope ratios, mercury, arsenic, antimony, silver, molybdenum, thorium, uranium, rare earth elements. Radiometric methods (the carbon bomb pulse of (14)C, (210)Pb and conventional (14)C dating) are combined to allow reliable age-depth models to be reconstructed for each peat profile. 相似文献
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An attempt was made to explain ambient air quality violations in the vicinity of industrial plants. Micrometeorology, diffusion calculaations, ambient readings, and plant engineering data are all taken into consideration to ascertain whether the plant is or is not the principal offender.Scrutiny of hi-vol filters using scanning electron microscopy for particle size analysis and particle chemical make-up as an assessment technique is also described.Case histories using the above analytical techniques are discussed.Presented at the 16th National Conference on Energy and the Environment, May 23, 1979 相似文献
10.
Frank Wania Yushan Su 《Ambio-人类环境杂志》2004,33(3):145-152
由于有广泛的理化特性,多氯联苯(PCBs)在全球分馏假设求导中担任着重要角色,这种假设预测持久性有机污染混合物的组成随纬度产生变化.最新的历史排放估计、内部一致的特性数据集和按气候带平均的全球命运和运输模型结合在一起允许把PCBs所经历的成分转移作为环境区划、纬度和时间的一个函数的定量调查.模型模拟复制出纬度越高在大气和土壤中所观察到的较轻PCB同类物的相对丰度就越高,并量化了分割、持久性和排放在建立PCB格局过程中的相对重要性.组成变化不仅与倒转的浓度剖面一致(北极区浓度高于低纬度区)也与全球分馏一致,但只与向北转移的全球PCB存量的较小部分一致. 相似文献