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Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.  相似文献   
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This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   
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Climate change: potential impact on plant diseases   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Global climate has changed since pre-industrial times. Atmospheric CO(2), a major greenhouse gas, has increased by nearly 30% and temperature has risen by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C. The intergovernmental panel on climate change predicts that with the current emission scenario, global mean temperature would rise between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees C by the year 2100. There are, however, many uncertainties that influence these predictions. Despite the significance of weather on plant diseases, comprehensive analysis of how climate change will influence plant diseases that impact primary production in agricultural systems is presently unavailable. Evaluation of the limited literature in this area suggests that the most likely impact of climate change will be felt in three areas: in losses from plant diseases, in the efficacy of disease management strategies and in the geographical distribution of plant diseases. Climate change could have positive, negative or no impact on individual plant diseases. More research is needed to obtain base-line information on different disease systems. Most plant disease models use different climatic variables and operate at a different spatial and temporal scale than do the global climate models. Improvements in methodology are necessary to realistically assess disease impacts at a global scale.  相似文献   
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Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Turbo) was grown from seedling emergence to maturity (129 days) in chambers simulating the physical climate and ozone pollution of a field site in Northern Germany from 1 April to 31 July with a mean 1-h daily maximum of 61.5-62.4 nl l(-1) ozone compared to a constant low level of 21.5-22.8 nl l(-1) ozone. The two ozone levels were combined with either a current (374.1-380.2 microl l(-1)) or enriched (610.6-615.0 microl l(-1)) CO(2) atmosphere. Additionally, a leaf rust epidemic (Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici) was induced at tillering stage by repeated re-inoculations with the inoculum formed on the plants. Leaf rust disease was strongly inhibited by ozone, but largely unaffected by elevated CO(2). Ozone damage on leaves was strongly affected by CO(2) and infection. On infected plants, ozone lesions appeared 2-4 weeks earlier and were up to fourfold more severe compared to non-infected plants. Elevated CO(2) did not delay the onset of ozone lesions but it significantly reduced the severity of leaf damage. It also enhanced the photosynthetic rate of flag leaves and increased the water use efficiency, biomass formation and grain yield. The relative increases in growth and yield induced by CO(2) were much larger on ozone-stressed than on non-stressed plants. Both ozone and fungal infection reduced biomass formation, number of grains per plant, thousand grain weight and grain yield; however, adverse effects of leaf rust infection were more severe. Elevated CO(2) largely equalized the negative effects of ozone on the photosynthetic rate, growth and yield parameters, but was not capable of compensating for the detrimental effects of fungal infection. The data imply that the impact of ozone in the field cannot be estimated without considering the predisposing effects deriving from fungal infections and the compensating effects deriving from elevated CO(2).  相似文献   
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The biotransformation of the nonylphenol isomer [ring-U-14C]-4-(3',5'-dimethyl-3'-heptyl)-phenol (4-353-NP, consisting of two diastereomers) was studied in soybean and Agrostemma githago cell suspension cultures. With the A. githago cells, a batch two-liquid-phase system (medium/n-hexadecane 200:1, v/v) was used, in order to produce higher concentrations and amounts of 4-353-NP metabolites for their identification; 4-353-NP was applied via the n-hexadecane phase. Initial concentrations of [14C]-4-353-NP were 1 mg L(-1) (soybean), and 5 and 10 mg L(-1) (A. githago). After 2 (soybean) and 7 days (A. githago) of incubation, the applied 4-353-NP was transformed almost completely by both plant species to four types of products: glycosides of parent 4-353-NP, glycosides of primary 4-353-NP metabolites, nonextractable residues and unknown, possibly polymeric materials detected in the media. The latter two products emerged especially in soybean cultures. Portions of primary metabolites amounted to 19-22% (soybean) and 21-42% of applied 14C (A. githago). After liberation from their glycosides, the primary 4-353-NP metabolites formed by A. githago were isolated by HPLC and examined by GC-EIMS as trimethylsilyl derivatives. In the chromatograms, eight peaks were detected which due to their mass spectra, could be traced back to 4-353-NP. Seven of the compounds were side-chain monohydroxylated 4-353-NP metabolites, while the remaining was a (side-chain) carboxylic acid derivative. Unequivocal identification of the sites of hydroxylation/oxidation of all transformation products was not possible. The main primary metabolites produced by A. githago were supposed to be four diastereomers of 6'-hydroxy-4-353-NP (about 80% of all products identified). It was concluded that plants contribute to the environmental degradation of the xenoestrogen nonylphenol; the toxicological properties of side-chain hydroxylated nonylphenols remain to be examined.  相似文献   
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