Modeling Postfire Response and Recovery using the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS)1

Abstract: This paper investigates application of the Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC‐HMS) to a burned watershed in San Bernardino County, California. We evaluate the HEC‐HMS’ ability to simulate discharge in prefire and postfire conditions in a semi arid watershed and the necessary parameterizations for modeling hydrologic response during the immediate, and subsequent recovery, period after a wildfire. The model is applied to City Creek watershed, which was 90% burned during the Old Fire of October 2003. An optimal spatial resolution for the HEC‐HMS model was chosen based on an initial sensitivity analysis of subbasin configurations and related model performance. Five prefire storms were calibrated for the selected model resolution, defining a set of parameters that reasonably simulate prefire conditions. Six postfire storms, two from each of the following rainy (winter) seasons were then selected to simulate postfire response and evaluate relative changes in parameter values and model behavior. There were clear trends in the postfire parameters [initial abstractions (I_a), curve number (CN), and lag time] that reveal significant (and expected) changes in watershed behavior. CN returns to prefire (baseline) values by the end of Year 2, while I_a approaches baseline by the end of the third rainy season. However, lag time remains significantly lower than prefire values throughout the three‐year study period. Our results indicate that recovery of soil conditions and related runoff response is not entirely evidenced by the end of the study period (three rainy seasons postfire). Understanding the evolution of the land surface and related hydrologic properties during the highly dynamic postfire period, and accounting for these changes in model parameterizations, will allow for more accurate and reliable discharge simulations in both the immediate, and subsequent, rainy seasons following fire.     

Assessment of Groundwater Depletion and Implications for Management in the Denver Basin Aquifer System

The Denver Basin Aquifer System (DBAS) is a critical groundwater resource along the Colorado Front Range. Groundwater depletion has been documented over the past few decades due to the increased water use among users, presenting long‐term sustainability challenges. A spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis is used to estimate potentiometric surfaces and evaluate groundwater storage changes between 1990 and 2016 in each of the four DBAS aquifers. Several key depletion patterns and spatial water‐level changes emerge in this work. Hydraulic head changes are the largest in the west‐central side of the DBAS and have decreased in some areas by up to 180 m since 1990, while areas to the northwest show increases in hydraulic head by over 30.5 m. The Denver and Arapahoe aquifers show the largest groundwater storage losses, with the highest rates occurring in the 2000s. The results highlight uncertainty in the volumetric predictions under various storage coefficient calculations and emphasize the importance of representative aquifer characterization. The observed groundwater storage depletions are due to a combination of factors, which include population growth increasing the demand for water, variable precipitation, and drought influencing recharge, and increased groundwater pumping. The methods applied in this study are transferable to other groundwater systems and provide a framework that can help assess groundwater depletion and inform management decisions at other locations.     

Water Use for Hydraulic Fracturing of Oil and Gas in the South Platte River Basin,Colorado

Water use for oil and gas development (i.e., hydraulic fracturing) is a concern in semiarid basins where water supply is often stressed to meet demands, and oil and gas production can exacerbate the situation. Understanding the impacts of water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) on water availability in semiarid regions is critical for management and regulatory decisions. In the current work, we quantify water use for HF at several scales — from municipal to state‐wide — using the IHS Enerdeq database for the South Platte Basin. In addition, we estimate produced water (a by‐product of oil and gas production), using data from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to explore reuse scenarios. The South Platte River Basin, located in northeastern Colorado, encompasses the Denver‐Metro area. The basin has one of the most productive oil and gas shale formations in Colorado, with much of the production occurring in Weld County. The basin has experienced higher horizontal drilling rates coupled with an increasing population. Results show water use for horizontal and vertical wells averages 11,000 and 1,000 m³, respectively. Water use for HF in the South Platte Basin totaled 0.63% of the basin's 2014 total water demand. For Weld County, water use for HF was 2.4% of total demand, and for the city of Greeley, water use was 7% of total demand. Produced water totaled 9.4 Mm³ in the basin for 2014, which represents 42% of the total water used for HF.     

Gridded estimates of CO2 emissions: uncertainty as a function of grid size

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - A crucial aspect of constructing a gridded model of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions involves careful consideration of...     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of a subtidal estuarine gastrotrich assemblage

The community and population ecology of the gastrotrich fauna from a single subtidal sand flat in North Inlet, South Carolina, USA, was studied over a 15 month period. An analysis of the temporal and small-scale spatial (horizontal and vertical) distribution of the total assemblage and its component species was used to gain insight into the types of processes (biological and physical) which serve to organize the structure of this meiobenthic taxocene. Samples, consisting of replicate cores which were spaced at 4 horizontal scales (1 m, 25 cm, 10 cm, and 4 cm) and vertically partitioned, were collected at least once each month between February 1976 and April 1977. The assemblage was characterized by both high monthly densities (x) and species richness (38 species identified). The 8 dominant species, 5 of which are in the family Thaumastodermatidae, numerically comprise 89% of the total gastrotrich population. Horizontally, individuals are only slightly to moderately aggregated, forming clumps on the order of 4 to 10 cm in size. The patches of the dominant species tend to coincide. The vertical distribution of the fauna in the sediment is restricted to the top 10 cm, with species being segregated with respect to each other in this dimension. Temporal density fluctuations of all species tend to parallel changes in water temperature. Indirect evidence suggests that interspecific competition is the single most important process structuring this gastrotrich assemblage.Contribution No. 213 from the Belle W. Baruch Institute for Marine Biology and Coastal Research, University of South Carolina. Based on a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, University of South Carolina, 1977. This research was supported in part by the Oceanography Section, National Science Foundation, NSF Grant OCE 72-01573 A02.     

Predicting emissions from oil and gas operations in the Uinta Basin,Utah

In this study, emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah’s Uinta Basin are predicted (with uncertainty estimates) from 2015–2019 using a Monte-Carlo model of (a) drilling and production activity, and (b) emission factors. Cross-validation tests against actual drilling and production data from 2010–2014 show that the model can accurately predict both types of activities, returning median results that are within 5% of actual values for drilling, 0.1% for oil production, and 4% for gas production. A variety of one-time (drilling) and ongoing (oil and gas production) emission factors for greenhouse gases, methane, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are applied to the predicted oil and gas operations. Based on the range of emission factor values reported in the literature, emissions from well completions are the most significant source of emissions, followed by gas transmission and production. We estimate that the annual average VOC emissions rate for the oil and gas industry over the 2010–2015 time period was 44.2E+06 (mean) ± 12.8E+06 (standard deviation) kg VOCs per year (with all applicable emissions reductions). On the same basis, over the 2015–2019 period annual average VOC emissions from oil and gas operations are expected to drop 45% to 24.2E+06 ± 3.43E+06 kg VOCs per year, due to decreases in drilling activity and tighter emission standards.

Implications: This study improves upon previous methods for estimating emissions of ozone precursors from oil and gas operations in Utah’s Uinta Basin by tracking one-time and ongoing emission events on a well-by-well basis. The proposed method has proven highly accurate at predicting drilling and production activity and includes uncertainty estimates to describe the range of potential emissions inventory outcomes. If similar input data are available in other oil and gas producing regions, then the method developed here could be applied to those regions as well.     

Urban Streamflow Response to Imported Water and Water Conservation Policies in Los Angeles,California

Los Angeles has a long history of importing water; however, drought, climate change, and environmental mitigation have forced the City to focus on developing more local water sources (target of 50% local supply by 2035). This study aims to improve understanding of water cycling in Los Angeles, including the impacts of imported water and water conservation policies. We evaluate the influence of local water restrictions on discharge records for 12 years in the Ballona Creek (urban) and Topanga Creek (natural) watersheds. Results show imported water has significantly altered the timing and volume of streamflow in the urban Ballona watershed, resulting in runoff ratios above one (more streamflow than precipitation). Further analysis comparing pre‐ vs. during‐mandatory water conservation periods shows there is a significant decrease in dry season streamflow during‐conservation in Ballona, indicating that prior to conservation efforts, heavy irrigation and other outdoor water use practices were contributing to streamflow. The difference between summer streamflow pre‐ vs. during‐conservation is enough to serve 160,000 customers in Los Angeles. If Los Angeles returns to more watering days, educating the public on proper irrigation rates is critical for ensuring efficient irrigation and conserving water; however, if water restrictions remain in place, the City must take the new flow volumes into account for complying with water quality standards in the region.     

Assessing Satellite and Ground‐Based Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Applications in the Colorado River Basin

This study evaluates a remotely sensed and two ground‐based potential evapotranspiration (PET) products for hydrologic application in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product (MODIS‐PET) is a continuous, daily time series with 250 m resolution derived using the Priestley‐Taylor (P‐T) equation. The MODIS‐PET is evaluated against regional flux tower data as well as a synthetic pan product (Epan; 0.125°, daily) derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and a Hargreaves PET derived from DAYMET variables (DAYMET‐PET; 1 km, daily). Compared to point‐scale PET computed using regional flux tower data, the MODIS‐PET had lower errors, with RMSE values ranging from 2.24 to 2.85 mm/day. Epan RMSE values ranged from 3.70 to 3.76 mm/day and DAYMET‐PET RMSE values ranged from 3.55 to 4.58 mm/day. Further investigation showed biases in temperature and radiation data contribute to uncertainty in the MODIS‐PET values, while bias in NLDAS temperature, downward shortwave (SW↓), and downward longwave (LW↓) propagate in the Epan estimates. Larger discrepancies between methods were observed in the warmer, drier regions of the UCRB, however, the MODIS‐PET was more responsive to landcover transitions and better captured basin heterogeneity. Results indicate the satellite‐based MODIS product can serve as a viable option for obtaining spatial PET values across the UCRB.     

Pre- and post-fire pollutant loads in an urban fringe watershed in Southern California

Post-fire runoff has the potential to be a large source of contaminants to downstream areas. However, the magnitude of this effect in urban fringe watersheds adjacent to large sources of airborne contaminants is not well documented. The current study investigates the impacts of wildfire on stormwater contaminant loading from the upper Arroyo Seco watershed, burned in 2009. This watershed is adjacent to the Greater Los Angeles, CA, USA area and has not burned in over 60 years. Consequently, it acts as a sink for regional urban pollutants and presents an opportunity to study the impacts of wildfire. Pre- and post-fire storm samples were collected and analyzed for basic cations, trace metals, and total suspended solids. The loss of vegetation and changes in soil properties from the fire greatly increased the magnitude of storm runoff, resulting in sediment-laden floods carrying high concentrations of particulate-bound constituents. Post-fire concentrations and loads were up to three orders of magnitude greater than pre-fire values for many trace metals, including lead and cadmium. A shift was also observed in the timing of chemical delivery, where maximum suspended sediment, trace metal, and cation concentrations coincided with, rather than preceded, peak discharge in the post-fire runoff, amplifying the fire’s impacts on mass loading. The results emphasize the importance of sediment delivery as a primary mechanism for post-fire contaminant transport and suggest that traditional management practices that focus on treating only the early portion of storm runoff may be less effective following wildfire. We also advocate that watersheds impacted by regional urban pollutants have the potential to pose significant risk for downstream communities and ecosystems after fire.