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1.
Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and
the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical
processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm
track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent
heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding
events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall.
In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution
weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed
(modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic
variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration
using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return
period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small
detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate
change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret
strategy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
2.
A comparison of the low frequency electrical signatures of iron oxide versus calcite precipitation in granular zero valent iron columns 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Geophysical methods have been proposed as technologies for non-invasively monitoring geochemical alteration in permeable reactive barriers (PRBs). We conducted column experiments to investigate the effect of mineralogy on the electrical signatures resulting from iron corrosion and mineral precipitation in Fe0 columns using (a) Na2SO4, and (b) NaHCO3 plus CaCl2 mixture, solutions. At the influent interface where the reactions were most severe, a contrasting time-lapse electrical response was observed between the two columns. Solid phase analysis confirmed the formation of corrosion halos and increased mineralogical complexity in the corroded sections of the columns compared to the minimal/non-corroded sections. We attribute the contrasting time-lapse signatures to the differences in the electrical properties of the mineral phases formed within the two columns. While newly precipitated/transformed polarizable and semi-conductive iron oxides (mostly magnetite and green rust) increase the polarization and conductivity of the sulfate column, the decrease of both parameters in the bicarbonate column is attributed to the precipitation of non-polarizable and non-conductive calcite. Our results show that precipitate mineralogy is an important factor influencing the electrical properties of the corroded iron cores and must be considered if electrical geophysical methods are to be developed to monitor PRB barrier corrosion processes in situ. 相似文献
3.
Organic solvents, such as dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) and methanol are widely used as vehicles to solubilise lipophilic test compounds in toxicity testing. However, the effects of such solvents upon innate detoxification processes in aquatic organisms are poorly understood. This study assessed the effect of solvent exposure upon cytochrome P450 (CYP)-mediated xenobiotic metabolism in Daphnia magna and zebrafish larvae (4 d post fertilisation). Adult D. magna were demonstrated to have a low, but detectable, metabolism of ethoxyresorufin in vivo and this activity was not modulated by pre-exposure to DMSO or methanol (24 h, up to 0.1% and 0.05% v/v, respectively). In contrast, the metabolism of ethoxyresorufin in zebrafish larvae was significantly reduced by both solvents (0.1% and 0.05% v/v, respectively) after 24 h of exposure. In zebrafish, these observed decreases in activity towards ethoxyresorufin were accompanied by decreased expression of a variety of genes coding for drug metabolising enzymes (corresponding to CYP1, CYP2, CYP3 and UDP-glucuronyl transferase [UGT] family enzymes), measured by quantitative PCR. Reduction of gene expression and CYP1 enzyme activities by methanol (0.05% v/v) in zebrafish larvae was partially reversed by co-exposure with Aroclor 1254 (100 μg L−1). Overall this study suggests that relatively low concentrations of organic solvents can impact upon the biotransformation of certain xenobiotics in zebrafish larvae, and that this warrants consideration when assessing compounds for metabolism and toxicity in this species. 相似文献
4.
5.
Huw Thomas 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》1985,28(2):55-59
This article examines the potential contribution of analytical philosophy to planning theory. In contrast to some recent discussions it takes as its starting point town planning as actually practised, and recognises the ideological framework within which, for the most part, twentieth century analytical philosophy has been conducted. It concludes that knowledge of philosophy may be of some limited use to the planning theorist. 相似文献
6.
Francesca R. Grati Denise Molina Gomes Devika Ganesamoorthy Livia Marcato Simona De Toffol Eleonore Blondeel Francesca Malvestiti Laurence Loeuillet Anna Maria Ruggeri Robert Wainer Federico Maggi Azzedine Aboura Celine Dupont Anne Claude Tabet Fabien Guimiot Howard R. Slater Giuseppe Simoni François Vialard 《黑龙江环境通报》2013,33(1):32-41
7.
In conflict‐affected situations, aid‐funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict‐affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods—this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict‐affected settings. 相似文献
8.
9.
Male willow warblers have song repertoires which vary in complexity along several dimensions. We examined whether female choice,
as measured by date of pairing, was based on these song characteristics in 4 different years. Pairing date was negatively
correlated with song repertoire size in 1 year, and with song versatility in another year, but there was no consistent effect
of any song characteristic on pairing throughout the years or in the pooled sample. The variable that best explained how soon
a male pairs is male arrival date (only males that had settled territories before the first female arrived were considered
in the analysis). This correlation is consistently significant in all years. This is most parsimoniously interpreted as females
choosing some habitat characteristic in the same way that males do. A small percentage of males (8.3%) attracted and paired
with a second female. The likelihood of becoming polygynous was not explained by any measured song characteristic, but it
was related to arrival date: early males were more likely to pair with two females. Males with large repertoires fledged more
young in their primary nests, and there was a trend for the offspring of these males to have a greater probability of being
recruited into the population. In conclusion, the results show that in most years there is no sexual selection by female preference
on song characteristics, although the data on reproductive success is consistent with the idea of repertoire size being an
indicator of male quality.
Received: 4 June 1999 / Received in revised form: 1 December 1999 / Accepted: 31 December 1999 相似文献
10.
Rowan J. Whittle Fernanda Quaglio Huw J. Griffiths Katrin Linse J. Alistair Crame 《Die Naturwissenschaften》2014,101(1):47-59
The fossil community from the Early Miocene Cape Melville Formation (King George Island, Antarctica) does not show the archaic retrograde nature of modern Antarctic marine communities, despite evidence, such as the presence of dropstones, diamictites and striated rocks, that it was deposited in a glacial environment. Unlike modern Antarctic settings, and the upper units of the Eocene La Meseta Formation on Seymour Island, Antarctica, which are 10 million years older, the Cape Melville Formation community is not dominated by sessile suspension feeding ophiuroids, crinoids or brachiopods. Instead, it is dominated by infaunal bivalves, with a significant component of decapods, similar to present day South American settings. It is possible that the archaic retrograde structure of the modern community did not fully evolve until relatively recently, maybe due to factors such as further cooling and isolation of the continent leading to glaciations, which resulted in a loss of shallow shelf habitats. 相似文献