Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Role of vitamin A in the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) in the rat.

The haematotoxicity of technical hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) (1000 ppm) was investigated in male albino rats fed with diet free of vitamin A or containing vitamin A at 2000 or 10(5) I.U./kg. Assessment of HCH-induced haematotoxicity at the end of the 7 weeks feeding period was done on the basis of haemoglobin content, total count of red blood cells and white blood cells and the differential counts of the white blood cells as well as by parameters such as packed cell volume, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin content, prothrombin time and clotting time. In the rats fed with vitamin A-free diet containing HCH, significant reductions were noticed in the total white blood cells count, clotting time and prothrombin time indicating severe haematotoxicity. Differential count of the white blood cells of these rats revealed a non-significant reduction in the lymphocyte count. The only indication of haematotoxicity caused by hexachlorocyclohexane in the vitamin A supplemented rats was a slight but statistically significant reduction of the total count of white blood cells. These results demonstrate that the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane in the rats is enhanced by vitamin A-deficiency and its supplementation particularly in excess but not at hypervitaminotic level is protective against the toxicity.     

Active capping demonstration in the Anacostia river,Washington, D.C.

An active capping demonstration project in Washington, D.C., is testing the ability to place sequestering agents on contaminated sediments using conventional equipment and evaluating their subsequent effectiveness relative to conventional passive sand sediment caps. Selected active capping materials include: (1) AquaBlokTM, a clay material for permeability control; (2) apatite, a phosphate mineral for metals control; (3) coke, an organic sequestration agent; and (4) sand material for a control cap. All of the materials, except coke, were placed in 8,000‐ft test plots by a conventional clamshell method during March and April 2004. Coke was placed as a 1.25‐cm layer in a laminated mat due to concerns related to settling of the material. Postcap sampling and analysis were conducted during the first, sixth, and eighteenth months after placement. Although postcap sampling is expected to continue for at least an additional 24 months, this article summarizes the results of the demonstration project and postcap sampling efforts up to 18 months. Conventional clamshell placement was found to be effective for placing relatively thin (six‐inch) layers of active material. The viability of placing high‐value or difficult‐to‐place material in a controlled manner was successfully demonstrated with the laminated mat. Postcap monitoring indicates that all cap materials effectively isolated contaminants, but it is not yet possible to differentiate between conventional sand and active cap layer performance. Monitoring of the permeability control layer indicated effective reductions in groundwater seepage rates through the cap, but also showed the potential for gas accumulation and irregular release. All of the cap materials show deposition of new contaminated sediment onto the surface of the caps, illustrating the importance of source control in maintaining sediment quality. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sources, distribution, and risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in Nairobi City, Kenya

The distribution and sources of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in air and surface waters were monitored in Nairobi City using triolein-filled semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). The SPMDs were extracted by dialysis using n-hexane, followed by cleanup by adsorption chromatography on silica gel cartridges. Sample analysis was done by GC-ECD and confirmed by GC–MS. Separation of means was achieved by analysis of variance, followed by pair-wise comparison using the t-test (p≤ 0.05). The total OCPs ranged between 0.018 – 1.277 ng/m³ in the air and <LOD – 1391.000 ng/m³ in surface waters. Based on the results, the means of Industrial Area, Dandora and Kibera were not significantly different (p≤ 0.05), but were higher (p≤ 0.05) than those of City square and Ngong’ Forest. The results revealed non-significant (p≤ 0.05) contribution of long-range transport to OCP pollution in Nairobi City. This indicated possible presence of point sources of environmental OCPs in the city. The water-air fugacity ratios indicated that volatilization and deposition played an important role in the spatial distribution of OCPs in Nairobi City. This indicated that contaminated surface waters could be major sources of human exposure to OCPs, through volatilization. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) determined from inhalation of atmospheric OCPs were 2.3745  ×  10^?13 – 1.6845  ×  10^?11 (adult) and 5.5404  ×  10^?13 – 3.9306  ×  10^?11 (child) in the order: Dandora > Kibera > Industrial Area > City Square > Ngong’ Forest. However, these were lower than the USEPA acceptable risks, 10^?6 – 10^?4. This study concluded that atmospheric OCPs did not pose significant cancer risks to the residents.     

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: Effect of sample storage time

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of 0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledgedDeceased     

Impact of desertification on temperature trends in the Middle East

The intense interest in desertification and climate change has stimulated detailed studies of temperature records in many areas of the world. In this investigation, the temperature records from the Middle East region are analyzed over the period 1950–1990. Results reveal a linear, statistically significant temperature increase of 0.07 °C/decade over the 41-year period. An analysis of spatial controls on these temperature changes reveals a warming effect associated with both overgrazing and the degree of human-induced desertification. The results of this study are consistent with theoretical and empirical studies predicting and demonstrating a warming signal associated with these land surface changes in the world's dryland areas.     

A simple,cost-effective multispecies toxicity test using organisms with a cosmopolitan distribution

Difficulties in making accurate, ecosystem-level predictions of environmental effects of chemicals, mixtures, and effluents based solely on the results of tests on single species have necessitated the development of more environmentally realistic, predictive testing methods. This paper describes a multispecies, community-level toxicity test based on the colonization of artificial substrates by microbial species. Tests examined the colonization of initially barren polyurethane foam artificial substrates by Protozoa from a species source colonized in a natural system. Differences in colonization were examined in microecosystems amended with low levels of cadmium, a very toxic heavy metal, and TFM, an organic biocide used against larval sea lamprey. Tests examined differences in colonization over 28 days. For cadmium, effect levels were estimated to be near 1 g 1^–1, in the low range of effect levels determined from chronic single species tests. For TFM, effect levels were estimated to be between 1 and 10 ppm, overlapping the concentrations used in environmental applications. The colonization response, which depends on naked microbial cells reproducing and migrating through toxicant amended water to new substrates, is very sensitive. Tests based on colonization can be adapted to use species from a target receiving system or can use species from a designated natural source. Field validation of these tests can employ nearly identical methods to those used in laboratory studies to assess the accuracy of predictions based on test system data.     

Air Pollution and Heat Exposure Study in the Workplace in a Glass Manufacturing Unit in India

Air pollution in the workplace environment due to industrial operation have been found to cause serious occupational health hazard. Similarly, heat stress is still most neglected occupational hazard in the tropical and subtropical countries like India. The hot climate augments the heat exposure close to sources like furnaces. In this study an attempt is made to assess air pollution and heat exposure levels to workers in the workplace environment in glass manufacturing unit located in the State of Gujarat, India. Samples for workplace air quality were collected for SPM, SO₂, NO₂ and CO₂ at eight locations. Results of workplace air quality showed 8-hourly average concentrations of SPM: 165–9118 μg/m³, SO₂: 6–9 μg/m³ and NO₂: 5–42 μg/m³, which were below the threshold limit values of workplace environment. The level of CO₂ in workplace air of the plant was found to be in the range 827–2886 μg/m³, which was below TLV but much higher than the normal concentration for CO₂ in the air (585 mg/m³). Indoor heat exposure was studied near the furnace and at various locations in an industrial complex for glass manufacturing. The heat exposure parameters including the air temperature, the wet bulb temperature, and the globe parameters were measured. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), an indicator of heat, exceeded ACGIH TLVs limits most of the time at all the locations in workplace areas. The recommended duration of work and rest have also been estimated.