A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Determining Ecoregions for Environmental and GMO Monitoring Networks

A representative environmental monitoring network at the regional scale cannot use raster-based or random sampling designs, but requires a stratified sampling procedure integrating different information layers, and it has to occur in ecologically differing homogeneous regions (ecoregions). These we have determined using a set of spatial strata with ecological variables which we analysed with classification and regression trees (CART). We present a framework for environmental monitoring, that covers different scales, and we transfer the framework to a potential GMO (genetically modified organisms) monitoring network. We use ecoregion and other environmental strata together with existing environmental monitoring networks to determine GMO monitoring sites more precisely.     

不稳定气候条件下中上层鱼类的种群补充:瑞典四大湖泊研究

通过对瑞典维纳恩、韦特恩、梅拉伦和哈马伦四大湖泊中上层鱼类种群生物学的研究得出,适宜区域里鱼苗在生长季节尽早孵化,并在冬季到来之前达到一定的体长,对鱼苗的成活是至关重要的.一般认为,这不仅是为了适应春季浮游动植物的生长,同时也是为了避免被捕食.相对于秋季产卵的欧白鲑(Coregonus albula)来说,通过对春季产卵的胡瓜鱼(Osmerus eperlanus)和梭鲈(Stizostedion lucioperca)的研究,我们更容易得出上述的结论.冰融之后欧白鲑苗的迅速孵化对鱼类的种群生长较为有利.在贫营养性、掠食性鱼类很少的湖泊中,冰融化之后水温的快速回升对种群的补充较为有利,而在富营养性的湖泊中,由于存在被捕食的压力,情况就大不一样了.研究结果表明秋季产卵群体较难适应全球变暖的趋势,不同年份鱼类在年种群生长强度方面存在着较大的差异,这可用生活史来予以解释.     

莫桑比克的海洋生物学研究:过去、现在及未来

本文概述了莫桑比克包括渔业在内的海洋生物学研究的发展情况.莫桑比克的海岸线约为3000km,海洋的生物资源在莫桑比克的社会中起着重要的作用,主要是作为人们的蛋白质来源以及收入和出口创汇的来源.     

Thyroid antibodies are not a risk factor for pregnancies with down syndrome

The observation that thyroid disease is frequent in mothers of children with Down syndrome (DS) has suggested that maternal thyroid antibodies could be a factor predisposing to trisomy 21 in their offspring. In this study, the incidences of thyroglobulin (Tg) and thyroid peroxidase (TPO) antibodies were analysed with a sensitive solid-phase immunosorbent radioassay in sera from 29 mothers giving birth to children with trisomy 21 and 87 control mothers. The serum samples were collected at delivery. There was no statistical difference regarding the proportion of thyroid antibodies (against Tg and/or TPO) in the two groups. Thyroid antibodies were detected in 6/29 (20.7 per cent) of the DS mothers and in 23/87 (26.4 per cent) of the control mothers. Among the women with thyroid antibodies, 4/6 (66.7 per cent) of the DS mothers and 12/23 (52 per cent) of the control mothers had antibodies against both Tg and TPO. There was no increase in the relative risk of having a child with DS if the titre of either Tg or TPO antibodies or both were positive, i.e. ≥ 1/5. The results indicate that the presence of thyroid antibodies in the serum of a pregnant woman has no prognostic value for the birth of an infant with DS.     

近期和长远时段内北极生态系统结构受到的影响

生物在物种水平上对全球气候变暖和紫外线B(UV-B)辐射增强的反应受到其群落内其他物种以及生态系统内养分循环的调节,所有的这些反应将会导致生态系统结构的变化.根据高纬度地区坏境因子的可能变化而做的控制试验表明,由夏季变暖而引起苔原植被的变化要小于增加施肥而引起的变化,试验涉及的某些环境因子对北极生态系统的结构有非常强烈地影响,但是这些影响因地区而异,观测结果表明,处于最寒冷地区的植物群落和无脊椎动物群落对全球气候变暖和紫外线B辐射的增强反应最为强烈.尽管微生物量和养分储存量相对稳定,北极无脊椎动物群落还是很可能会对全球变暖产生迅速的反应.试验结果显示,加强紫外线B辐射会改变革兰氏阴性细菌和真菌的群落组成结构,但不会对植物群落的组成产生影响.由夏季气温升高而提高的植物生产力将会控制食物网的动态变化,以苔原植被和亚极地森林植物为基础的食物网中的营养流动会明显地影响到几种优势动物种群数量的周期性波动,在某些年分这些动物的种群数量会达到峰值.小型啮齿动物和食叶昆虫如秋毛虫种群数量的周期性变化则会影响苔原和森林苔原植物的组成结构和多样性,同时也会影响到一些专性捕食者和寄生虫的变化.在暖冬,雪表形成冰壳可能会减少旅鼠的植物食物来源,然而较深的雪也可以使它们免受雪地表面上捕食者对它们的捕食.在芬诺斯堪的亚地区,已有证据表明小型啮齿类动物群落结构和种群动态的显著变化会导致专门以小型啮齿类动物为食物的捕食者的数量减少.气候还可能改变昆虫在白桦森林生态系统中的作用,因为暖冬可以增加这些昆虫卵的成活率,并且扩大其分布范围.此外,在夏季困扰驯鹿的昆虫会由于夏季气候的变暖而扩大其分布范围、增加种群数量并且种群更为活跃;同时在另一方面也会对驯鹿不利,即那些昔日驯鹿/北美驯鹿的避难场所--冰川和未融的成片的雪--在这样温暖的夏季则可能会消失.     

Climate impact from peat utilisation in Sweden

The climate impact from the useof peat for energy production in Sweden hasbeen evaluated in terms of contribution toatmospheric radiative forcing. This wasdone by attempting to answer the question`What will be the climate impact if onewould use 1 m<sup>2</sup> of mire for peatextraction during 20 years?'. Two differentmethods of after-treatment were studied:afforestation and restoration of wetland.The climate impact from a peatland –wetland scenario and a peatland –forestation – bioenergy scenario wascompared to the climate impact from coal,natural gas and forest residues.Sensitivity analyses were performed toevaluate which parameters that areimportant to take into consideration inorder to minimize the climate impact frompeat utilisation. In a `multiple generationscenario' we investigate the climate impactif 1 Mega Joule (MJ) of energy is produced every yearfor 300 years from peat compared to otherenergy sources.The main conclusions from the study are:?The accumulated radiative forcing from the peatland – forestation – bioenergy scenario over a long time perspective (300 years) is estimated to be 1.35 mJ/m²/m² extraction area assuming a medium-high forest growth rate and medium original methane emissions from the virgin mire. This is below the corresponding values for coal 3.13 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area and natural gas, 1.71 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area, but higher than the value for forest residues, 0.42 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area. A `best-best-case' scenario, i.e. with high forest growth rate combined with high `avoided' methane (CH₄) emissions, will generate accumulated radiative forcing comparable to using forest residues for energy production. A `worst-worst-case' scenario, with low growth rate and low `avoided' CH₄ emissions, will generate radiative forcing somewhere in between natural gas and coal.?The accumulated radiative forcing from the peatland – wetland scenario over a 300-year perspective is estimated to be 0.73 –1.80 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area depending on the assumed carbon (C) uptake rates for the wetland and assuming a medium-high methane emissions from a restored wetland. The corresponding values for coal is 1.88 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area, for natural gas 1.06 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area and for forest residues 0.10 mJ/ m²/ m² extraction area. A `best-best-case' scenario (i.e. with high carbon dioxide CO<sub>2</sub>-uptake combined with high `avoided' CH₄ emissions and low methane emissions from the restored wetland) will generate accumulated radiative forcing that decreases and reaches zero after 240 years. A `worst-worst-case' (i.e. with low CO<sub>2</sub>-uptake combined with low `avoided' CH₄ emissions and high methane emissions from the restored wetland) will generate radiative forcing higher than coal over the entire time period.?The accumulated radiative forcing in the `multiple generations' – scenarios over a 300-year perspective producing 1 MJ/year is estimated to be 0.089 mJ/ m<sup>2</sup> for the scenario `Peat forestation – bioenergy', 0.097 mJ/ m² for the scenario `Peat wetland with high CO<sub>2</sub>-uptake' and 0.140 mJ/ m<sup>2</sup> for the scenario `Peat wetland with low CO₂-uptake'. Corresponding values for coal is 0.160 mJ/ m², for natural gas 0.083 mJ/ m² and for forest residues 0.015 mJ/ m². Using a longer time perspective than 300 years will result in lower accumulated radiative forcing from the scenario `Peat wetland with high CO₂-uptake'. This is due to the negative instantaneous forcing that occurs after 200 years for each added generation.?It is important to consider CH₄ emissions from the virgin mire when choosing mires for utilization. Low original methane emissions give significantly higher total climate impact than high original emissions do.?Afforestation on areas previously used for peat extraction should be performed in a way that gives a high forest growth rate, both for the extraction area and the surrounding area. A high forest growth rate gives lower climate impact than a low forest growth rate.?There are great uncertainties related to the data used for emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases in restored wetlands. The mechanisms affecting these emissions and uptake should be studied further.     

农场协作以提高可持续发展力

本文表明农场主之间的联合经营体(partnership arrangements)可能是保障农场经济生存能力和提高效益的途径之一.本文讨论了三种不同协作类型的经验分析,并强调了与协作经营关联的环境改善.在第一个案例中,对牛奶场和种植农场的协作进行了分析,结果表明多样化的提高和轮作具有实质的潜在效益,当协作包括机械时,其潜在效益更高.第二个例子论及生猪育崽和精饲管理的外部综合条件.协作利润源于生物因子和技术因子两方面,诸如提高生长率和增加猪舍的利用率等.最后,本文对一组种植农场协作进行了评估,认为效益的增加主要得益于机械费用的减少和/或来自其它因素的收益,如轮作和管理、营销策略等的改善.     

近期和长远时段内北极生态系统功能受到的影响

长期以来,就营养物质和碳循环而言,北极生态系统降低了初级生产力；能量,水和温室气体交换的水平已引起了局部和区域性的小幅度降温.大气CO2中的碳沉积在广袤而寒冷的有机土壤中,冰雪覆盖的低矮植被产生高的反射率,都影响了局部气候.然而,北极生态系统功能的许多方面都对气候变化及其产生的生物多样性影响敏感.当前的北极气候导致了低的有机物质分解速率,因此,尽管有机物和元素输入量较低,但北极生态系统还是趋向于积累有机物和元素,土壤中氮和磷等可利用元素结果成为促进碳固定以及生物量和有机物进一步积累的关键性限制因素.气候变暖可能增加特别是土壤中的碳和元素的周转,起初可能导致元素的丢失,但最后会慢慢的恢复.在北极生态系统中,单个物种和物种多样性已经明显地影响了元素的输入和滞留,另一方面,从长远来看,尽管CO2和紫外线增加对植物组织化学、分解和氮固定的影响可能变得重要,但对整个生态系统来说,影响可能很小.碳循环的示踪气体主要形式是CO2和CH4,大多数碳以CO2的形式损失,这些CO2是由植物和土壤生物产生.来自潮湿苔原生态系统以CH4形式释放的碳大约是CO2形式的5％,而且在没有任何其他变化的情况下,对变暖作出响应.冬天过程和植物类型也影响CH4释放和能量在生物圈和大气之间的交换,因为反射率从冬末到夏天存在很大的变化,在冬末,雪反射了入射的大部分光线,在夏天,生态系统吸收了入射的大部分光线,所以在所有的陆地生态系统中,北极生态系统在能量交换方面表现出巨大的季节性变化.植被深刻地影响北极生态系统水和能量交换.在冰雪覆盖期间,反射率从苔原、森林苔原、落叶林、常绿林依次降低.灌木和树增加了雪的深度,反过来又使冬天的土壤温度增加,因此,由气候变化而引起的未来植被方面的变化很可能深远地改变区域的气候.