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1.
A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability. 相似文献
2.
Dr Marianne Johansen Marian Knight Edward J. Maher Kim Smith Ian L. Sargent 《黑龙江环境通报》1995,15(10):921-931
Trophoblast deportation is known to occur in normal human pregnancy, but it is not yet clear whether these cells routinely enter the maternal peripheral circulation and are available as a source of fetal DNA for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of genetic disorders. To resolve this issue requires an efficient method of enriching trophoblast from maternal blood combined with a means to confirm its identity. Five different techniques were tested on ten retroplacental blood samples to determine the most sensitive and operator-efficient method. Lysis of red cells alone gave the best recovery of trophoblast but had to be discounted, together with Ficoll density gradient centrifugation, due to the very low purity and the excessive time required. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) of pre-enriched trophoblast resulted in the lowest recovery rate (8 per cent) despite a 3250-fold enrichment and a very high purity. Immunomagnetic beads (Dynabeads) coated with anti-CD 16 antibody proved to be the best method for the subsequent immunocytochemical characterization of deported trophoblast. However, IO beads coated with anti-CD45 antibody may be more useful for isolating trophoblast for prenatal diagnosis due to the high purity, enrichment (32-fold), and recovery rate (78 per cent) obtained with this method. 相似文献
3.
Old scrap constitutes varied proportions of consumption of different metals. The authors construct a model in which the share of scrap in total supply is explained by three factors, the growth rate in overall demand for the metal; the share of metal contained in scrapped products actually recovered; and the durability of metal containing products. The model is used to study the impact on the share of scrap in total supply from changes in each of the factors. The strongest impact appears to follow from changes in the growth rate of overall demand. Inserting empirical data for copper into their model, the authors suggest, for instance, that in the long run old scrap could satisfy 100 per cent of copper demand, provided that this demand contracted by 1 per cent per year. La ferraille constitue des proportions variées d'utilisation de différents métaux. Les auteurs de cet article ont construit un modèle dans lequel la part de ferraille dans 'approvisionnement total est expliquée par le jeu de trois facteurs: le taux de croissance de la demande globale pour le métal, la part de métal contenue dans des débris de métaux effectivement récupérés et la durabilité des métaux renfermant des produits. Le modèle est utilisé pour étudier les incidences des changements dans chacun des facteurs sur la part de ferraille dans 'offre totale. L'incidence la plus importante semble provenir de modifications dans le taux de croissance de la demande globale. En introduisant des données empiriques pour le cuivre dans leur modèle, les auteurs suggèrent par exemple, qu' à longue échéance, la ferraille pourrait répondre à la demande totale en cuivre pourvu que cette demande se réduise d'un pour cent par année. El uso de chatarra representa una proporción variable del consumo de los diferentes metales. En este artículo los autores presentan un modelo en el que la proción de la chatarra en la oferta de un metal depende de tres factores: la tasa de crecimiento de la demanda global del metal, la proción del metal contenido en la chatarra recuperada, y la durabilidad o vida económica de los productos que contienen el metal en cuestión. El modelo se utiliza para estudiar el impacto sobre la proporción de chatarra en la oferta total causado por las variaciónes de cada uno de estos factores. El mayor impacto parece ocurrir debido al cambio en la tasa de crecimiento de la demands global. Al utilizar el modelo con datos para el cobre, los autores sugieren, por ejemplo, que en el largo plazo la chatarra de cobre podría satisfacer el cien por ciento de la demanda de este metal siempre que dicha demanda se contraigo en uno por ciento por año. 相似文献
4.
This paper presents an agent-based approach for error detection in incident management organizations. The approach consists of several parts. First, a formal approach for the specification and hierarchical verification of both traces and properties. Incomplete traces are enriched by enrichment rules. Furthermore, a classification mechanism is presented for the different properties in incident management that is based on psychological literature. Classification of errors provides insight in the functioning of the agents involved with respect to their roles. This insight enables the provision of dedicated training sessions and allows software support to give appropriate warning messages during incident management. 相似文献
5.
Goebes MD Hildemann LM Kujundzic E Hernandez M 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2007,9(6):599-609
Aspergillus is a genus of mold that has strong indoor sources, including several species capable of acting as opportunistic pathogens. Previous studies suggest that Aspergillus could serve as an indicator for abnormal mold growth or moisture, making it an important genus for environmental monitoring. Here, a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR, or real-time PCR) assay is presented for Aspergillus. The assay shows good specificity for the genus, detecting all Aspergillus species tested, although a few non-Aspergillus species are also amplified. Sensitivity testing demonstrates that DNA representing one conidium can be detected. A validation study compared qPCR results against direct microscopy counts using A. fumigatus conidia aerosolized into a laboratory chamber. The assay was then used to quantify Aspergillus in indoor air samples, demonstrating its utility for environmental monitoring. Analysis of a small number of clinical sputum samples showed complete agreement with culturing results. 相似文献
6.
The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Marian Radetzki 《Ambio》2010,39(3):211-222
Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by
taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious
question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about
claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews
the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have
so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently
under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and
the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy
plans currently on the table. 相似文献
7.
Kai-Chung Cheng Marian D. Goebes Lynn M. Hildemann 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(16):2062-2066
The effect of foot traffic on indoor particle resuspension was evaluated by associating non-prescribed foot traffic with simultaneous size-resolved airborne particulate matter (PM) concentrations in a northern California hospital. Foot traffic and PM were measured every 15 min in a carpeted hallway over two 27-h periods. The PM concentration in the hallway was modeled based on the foot traffic intensity, including the previous PM concentration via an autocorrelation regression method based on the well-mixed box model. All 5 size ranges of PM, ranging from 0.75–1 μm to 5–7.5 μm, were highly correlated with foot traffic measurements for both monitoring periods (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.87–0.90). However, correlations during daytime hours were less significant than nighttime. Coefficients found via this autoregressive analysis can be interpreted to reveal (i) time-independent contributions of walking activities on PM levels for a specific location; and (ii) size-specific characteristics of the resuspended PM. 相似文献
8.
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are very stable compounds and tend to bioaccumulate in the environment due to their high degree of conjugation and aromaticity. Hydrous pyrolysis is explored as a technique for the treatment of industrial water containing PAH, using anthracene as a model compound. The reactivity of anthracene under a range of temperatures and durations are studied in this paper. Aliquots of 1.0-10.0 mg of anthracene in a range of 1.0-5.0 mL of H2O are subjected to hydrous pyrolysis under varied conditions of temperature, reagents and duration. The conditions include oxidising systems comprising distilled water, hydrogen peroxide and Nafion-SiO2 solid catalyst in water; and reducing systems of formic acid and formic acid/Nafion-SiO2/Pd-C catalysts to assess a range of redox reaction conditions. Oxygen in air played a role in some of the reaction conditions. Pyrolysed products were identified and quantified by the use of Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). The major products were anthrone, anthraquinone, xanthone from oxidation; and multiple hydro-anthracene derivatives from reductive hydogenation. The nature of reaction conditions influenced the extent of anthracene degradation. The products formed are more reactive (less stable) as compared to anthracene the starting material and will therefore be less persistent in the environment. 相似文献
9.
Measured by weight, copper is the third most important metal used by man. The annual value of its 2007 output was on a par with the GDP of e.g. Ukraine. Copper is also one of the oldest metals, its employment going back 7000 years. For millennia, it was predominantly employed for decorative purposes, coinage and in warfare. Technical breakthroughs in antiquity, like smelting and alloying, expanded its production and enhanced its utility. Copper's true heyday occurred after 1850, with the usage of electricity. In the period since then, volumes increased 300-fold, while costs and prices declined. With impressive progress in the technology of its production and consumption, the red metal has been able to hold its own, despite the emergence over history of formidable substitutes like iron, aluminum, plastics and optic fiber. 相似文献
10.
Ovidiu Badea Andrzej Bytnerowicz Diana Silaghi Stefan Neagu Ion Barbu Carmen Iacoban Corneliu Iacob Gheorghe Guiman Elena Preda Ioan Seceleanu Marian Oneata Ion Dumitru Viorela Huber Horia Iuncu Lucian Dinca Stefan Leca Ioan Taut 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2012,184(12):7491-7515
Air pollution, bulk precipitation, throughfall, soil condition, foliar nutrients, as well as forest health and growth were studied in 2006–2009 in a long-term ecological research (LTER) network in the Bucegi Mountains, Romania. Ozone (O3) was high indicating a potential for phytotoxicity. Ammonia (NH3) concentrations rose to levels that could contribute to deposition of nutritional nitrogen (N) and could affect biodiversity changes. Higher that 50% contribution of acidic rain (pH?<?5.5) contributed to increased acidity of forest soils. Foliar N concentrations for Norway spruce (Picea abies), Silver fir (Abies alba), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) were normal, phosphorus (P) was high, while those of potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), and especially of manganese (Mn) were significantly below the typical European or Carpathian region levels. The observed nutritional imbalance could have negative effects on forest trees. Health of forests was moderately affected, with damaged trees (crown defoliation >25%) higher than 30%. The observed crown damage was accompanied by the annual volume losses for the entire research forest area up to 25.4%. High diversity and evenness specific to the stand type’s structures and local climate conditions were observed within the herbaceous layer, indicating that biodiversity of the vascular plant communities was not compromised. 相似文献