Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes,costs, and uncertainty

Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.     

洪水是否在增长?

洪灾的消息越来越频繁,越来越引人注目.很多人对洪水是否比以前增长了产生了疑问.很多情况下洪水是增长了,然而也有很多河流洪水是降低的.气候因素导致了许多这样的变化,但是人为产生的流域变化更加重要.洪水造成的危害则毫无疑问是增长的.剧烈的城市化,尤其是在亚洲和非洲,造成了人们居住在容易受到洪水危害的河流和三角洲地区.     

An abbreviated alternatives assessment process for product designers: a children’s furniture manufacturing case study

Alternatives assessment is becoming increasingly popular to evaluate the potential environmental and human health hazards of materials. A three step process was used to identify and evaluate alternative products for a children's furniture manufacturer. An alternatives assessment framework was developed to analyze alternative mattresses. The framework specifically addresses those environmental and safety attributes applicable to the product and the product components in accordance with the product’s intended use. The result of the assessment allowed the manufacturer to select the most environmentally friendly alternative and eliminate polyvinyl chloride from their product.     

Applying the precautionary principle to consumer household cleaning product development

Hazardous chemicals are pervasive in household disinfectant products. Many ingredients have established associations with acute and chronic human health conditions as well as with environmental damage. Although these associations are suggested but not proven, they are of great concern. This article describes the application of the precautionary principle to the selection of an anti-microbial active ingredient for a botanical disinfectant when significant uncertainty exists around the hazard and risk of traditional disinfectant active ingredients. We show that application of the precautionary principle does not stifle innovation and facilitates a responsible approach to product development.     

Environmental and economic assessment of a greenhouse waste heat exchange

As the economic costs of energy and the negative externalities associated with the combustion of fossil fuels threaten the economic viability of greenhouses in northern climates there is a renewed interest in the use of waste heat. This paper presents a technical and economic methodology to determine the viability of establishing waste heat greenhouses using the waste heat from industrial processes in northern climates. A case study is presented of an exchange between a tomato greenhouse and a flat glass manufacturing plant, which found the waste heat system is significantly more economic to operate than a purely natural gas system.     

The water supply footprint (WSF): a strategic planning tool for sustainable regional and local water supplies

This paper introduces a new methodological approach of the ecological footprint explicitly addressing the sustainability of water supplies, which we call the water supply footprint (WSF). The WSF calculates the catchment area or water supply hinterland of a certain society and can serve as a strategic planning tool for local or regional water supplies linking the water demand with the water supply in a water supply footprint matrix. Based on regional water balances it estimates how much water can be appropriated for human use in an environmentally sustainable way.The proposed method is tested on the South East Queensland water supply in Australia, an area where water use restrictions are regularly imposed on the population. Applying the proposed method indicates that supply shortages may be avoided by considerably changing the organisation of water supply, thereby reducing and possibly even avoiding the necessity for large-scale supply side measures like additional sweet water reservoirs or desalination plants. In that way it is demonstrated that the WSF method is applicable at an early and strategic stage of water supply planning.     

A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland

Background, aim, and scope  The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing. Materials and methods  An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates, and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted. An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken. Results  The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5 × 10⁶ m³ and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g⁻¹ or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g⁻¹ d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m³). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors. The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher (RR = 1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m³) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during autumn 2008. Conclusions  The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for (former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making. Recommendations and perspectives  The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed, e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Absence behavior as traffic crash predictor in bus drivers

Problem

Various indicators of health have been shown to be associated with traffic crash involvement. As general health is also related to absence from work, the latter variable may be more strongly related to crashes, especially for professional drivers.

Method

Bus driver absence from work was analyzed in association with their crash records. Two British samples and one Swedish sample were used.

Results

One of the British samples yielded fair correlations between crash record and absence, while for the other the effect was restricted to the first three months of driving. The Swedish data had effects in the expected direction but these were not significant.

Discussion

The use of an indirect, overall measurement of health, may be a viable method for predicting the traffic crash involvement for professional drivers, although replications are needed in larger samples and other populations.

Impact on industry

The use of absence records for the identification of at risk drivers would seem to be a simple and useful method for companies with major fleets, and it also shows the importance of promoting employee health and well being at work as a potential method of reducing the cost, not only of absenteeism, but also of crashes in company vehicles.     

Have government regulations improved workplace safety? : A test of the asynchronous regulatory effects in China's coal industry, 1995-2006

Problem

Empirical studies on the effectiveness of workplace safety regulations are inconclusive. This study hypothesizes that the asynchronous effects of safety regulations occur because regulations need time to become effective. Safety regulations will work initially by reducing the most serious accidents, and later by improving overall safety performance.

Method

The hypothesis is tested by studying a provincial level aggregate panel dataset for China's coal industry using two different models with different sets of dependent variables: a fixed-effects model on mortality rate, which is defined as fatalities per 1,000 employees; and a negative binominal model on the annual number (frequency) of disastrous accidents.

Results

Safety regulations can reduce the frequency of disastrous accidents, but have not reduced mortality rate, which represents overall safety performance.

Discussion and summary

Policy recommendations are made, including shifting production from small to large mines through industrial consolidation, improving the safety performance of large mines, addressing consequences of decentralization, and facilitating the implementation of regulations through carrying on institutional actions and supporting legislation.

Impact on industry

Until recently, about 4,000 coal miners perished annually in China, demonstrating that workplace safety in China's coal industry is an urgent and important issue. This research provides evidence that safety regulations have asynchronous effects and identifies the priorities in improving safety in China's current coal mining. This may assist the Chinese government to design more effective safety improvement policies and improve the effectiveness of safety regulations and safety performance.