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1.
Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates. 相似文献
2.
洪灾的消息越来越频繁,越来越引人注目.很多人对洪水是否比以前增长了产生了疑问.很多情况下洪水是增长了,然而也有很多河流洪水是降低的.气候因素导致了许多这样的变化,但是人为产生的流域变化更加重要.洪水造成的危害则毫无疑问是增长的.剧烈的城市化,尤其是在亚洲和非洲,造成了人们居住在容易受到洪水危害的河流和三角洲地区. 相似文献
3.
Peter Weindler Frank Böhme Varis Liepa Wolfgang Wiltschko 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1998,42(4):289-294
To assess the role of celestial rotation during daytime in the development of the magnetic compass course, pied flycatchers
(Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas, Muscicapidae) were handraised in Latvia under various celestial and magnetic conditions. Tests were performed during
autumn migration in the local geomagnetic field (50 000 nT, 73° inclination) in the absence of celestial cues. A group of
birds that had never seen the sky showed a bimodal preference for the migratory southwest-northeast axis, whereas a second
group that had been exposed to the natural sky from sunrise to sunset in the local geomagnetic field showed a unimodal preference
for the seasonally appropriate southwesterly direction. A third group that had also been exposed to the daytime sky, but in
the absence of magnetic compass information, also oriented bimodally along a southwest-northeast axis. These findings demonstrate
that observing celestial rotation during daytime enables birds to choose the right end of the migratory axis for autumn migration
at the Latvian test location. This transformation of axial behavior into appropriate migratory orientation, however, requires
the birds to have simultaneous access to information on both celestial rotation and the geomagnetic field.
Received: 19 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 November 1997 相似文献
4.
A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Verta M Kiviranta H Salo S Malve O Korhonen M Verkasalo PK Ruokojärvi P Rossi E Hanski A Päätalo K Vartiainen T 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2009,16(1):95-105
Background, aim, and scope The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the
Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including
environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been
heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured
in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production
and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing.
Materials and methods An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates,
and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible
effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted.
An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken.
Results The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of
contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5 × 106 m3 and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g−1 or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g−1 d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m3). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors.
The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with
reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki
area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher
(RR = 1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased
cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO
upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg−1 d−1 for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 μg kg−1 d−1 for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with
different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions
in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m3) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during
autumn 2008.
Conclusions The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali,
and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic
Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating
predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for
(former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making.
Recommendations and perspectives The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently
under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan
for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river
is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive
restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated
sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed,
e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献
5.
Since WWII, forest management in Fennoscandia has primarily been based on even-aged stand management, clear cut harvesting and thinning from below. As an alternative, uneven-aged management, based on selection cutting of individual trees or small groups of trees, has been proposed. In this review we discuss the theoretical aspects of ecology and economics of the two management approaches. We also review peer-reviewed studies from boreal Fennoscandia, which have aimed at comparing the outcomes of uneven-aged and the conventional even-aged forest management. According to a common view the main obstacle of practicing uneven-aged forestry is its low economic performance. However, the reviewed studies did not offer any straightforward support for this view and several studies have found uneven-aged management to be fully competitive with existing even-aged management. Studies on the ecological aspects indicated that selection cuttings maintain mature or late-successional forest characteristics and species assemblages better than even-aged management, at least at the stand scale and in the short term. We conclude that although the number of relevant studies has increased in recent years, the ecological and economic performance of alternative management methods still remains poorly examined, especially for those stands with multiple tree species and also at wider spatial and temporal scales. For future research we advocate a strategy that fully takes into consideration the interdisciplinary nature of forest management and is better connected to social goals and latest theoretical and methodological developments in ecology and economics. 相似文献
6.
Mark Radosevich Samuel J. Traina Olli H. Tuovinen 《Journal of environmental science and health. Part. B》2013,48(4):457-494
Abstract An atrazine‐degrading bacterial isolate (M91–3) was able to utilize simazine and cyanazine as N sources for glucose‐dependent growth. The degradation of these three 5‐triazine herbicides was also investigated in binary and ternary mixtures. The organism used atrazine and simazine indiscriminately, whereas cyanazine degradation was slow and delayed until the depletion of the two other herbicides. There was no apparent effect of other commonly used herbicides on the rate of atrazine degradation by M91–3. 相似文献
7.
The purpose of the study was to evaluate the potential of phenanthrene and fluoranthene biodegradation in yardwaste compost materials. These polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons were chosen for this work because they are relatively readily biodegradable and ubiquitous in the environment. Compost samples were incubated in biometers with 14C-labeled phenanthrene and the evolution of "4CO2 was assessed as a measure of mineralization. The '4CO2 evolution varied widely among replicate biometers, possibly as the result of (1) uneven and patchy colonization of phenanthrene-degrading microorganisms on compost particles, and (2) non-uniform dispersion of the labeled substrate spike into the yardwaste microenvironment. Mineralization of phenanthrene reached about 40%extent of 14CO2 evolution at best before leveling off, but the maximum varied from sample to sample and could be as low as 1%after three months. Active mineralization occurred at mesophilic and thermophilic temperatures. Methanol extraction was used to recover "4C from biometer samples that were spiked with "4C-labeled phenanthrene. Extraction for 24-48 h yielded 1-14% recovery of 14C, depending on the length of the preceding incubation. The low extraction yield and relatively low maximum mineralization(<40%) indicated that residual phenanthrene was sorbed and bound within the compost matrix in the biometer. Amendment ofbiometers with 0.05% Tween 80 or addition of water did not consistently enhance the mineralization. Variability in mineralization was greatly reduced in liquid samples taken from pre-enriched compost samples. Mineralization of 14C-labeled fluoranthene was negligible in biometers but could be stimulated by pre-enrichment with salicylate or naphthalene. Pre-enrichment also accelerated the mineralization of phenanthrene. 相似文献
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9.
The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources-largely fossil fuels-returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average. 相似文献
10.