Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: Application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.     

Correlation between stomach temperatures and ambient water temperatures in free-ranging loggerhead turtles,Caretta caretta

Instruments were attached to loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, at Kamoda Point, Japan in 1989 and on the Senri-coast, Japan in 1991. We simultaneously obtained stomach temperatures, ambient water temperatures and diving depths from four free-ranging loggerhead turtles during the internesting periods, using small recorders. These data were analyzed to understand how body temperature was maintained. Ambient water temperatures changed coincidentally when turtles moved up or down, but a stable stomach temperatures was maintained despite water temperature fluctuations of ca. 20 to 90 min in duration. Loggerhead turtles also experienced water temperature fluctuations longer than 24 h. Stomach temperatures responded to those water temperature changes with a time lag of several hours (160, 170, 230 and 240 min). Stomach temperatures were higher than ambient water temperatures throughout the experimental periods. The median values of the thermal difference between stomach and water temperatures were 1.1, 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7°C. The higher stomach temperatures are thought to be caused by metabolic heat production.     

A comparative study on the autoxidation of dimethyl ether (DME) comparison with diethyl ether (DEE) and diisopropyl ether (DIPE)

The Japanese government is planning to introduce DME as a substituted energy for oil and LNG. Introduction of DME could contribute greatly to both the prevention of global warming and the formation of resource-recycling societies. In these circumstances, a safety assessment of DME is very important when DME is used on a large scale. There is a possibility that prolonged exposure in air induces autoxidation to produce explosive organic peroxides during transportation and storage of DME. Therefore, the reactivity of DME with oxygen and the mechanism of the autoxidation were investigated. Accelerating Rate Calorimetry (ARC) was used to evaluate the thermal stability of DME and DIPE, a known peroxide producers, under adiabatic and various atmospheric conditions. In ARC studies of DME under oxygen, exothermic decompositions were detected although its self-heating rate was low in comparison with DIPE. Oven storage tests were carried out and iodimetry was used to measure the concentration of peroxides produced from DME in comparison with DIPE and DEE. However, no products could be found for DME either by GC/MS or by iodimetry, while some evidence of autoxidation of both DEE and DIPE were obtained from these experiments.     

Dynamics of PCDDs/DFs and coplanar-PCBs in an aquatic food chain of Tokyo Bay

Concentrations and accumulation profiles of PCDDs/DFs and coplanar-PCBs (co-PCBs) in aquatic biota (e.g., plankton, shellfish, benthic invertebrate, and fish) and sediment from Tokyo Bay were examined to elucidate the relationship between bioaccumulation and trophic level in the food web as determined by the stable nitrogen isotope analysis. Bioaccumulation patterns of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs varied greatly among congeners. Accumulation patterns of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs are not solely explained by their physicochemical properties. Biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) for co-PCBs in biota from Tokyo Bay were significantly greater than those of PCDDs/DFs. Furthermore, the slopes of the plots of delta15N and BSAF values and water solubility of 2,3,7,8-substituted PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs were highly correlated. The results of our study would provide the valuable information to understand the accumulation properties of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs that can be used as a scientific basis to determine the sediment quality criteria of PCDDs/DFs and co-PCBs.     

Evaluation of an ecosystem model in ecological risk assessment of chemicals

We used a Lake Suwa version of Comprehensive Aquatic Systems Model (CASM_SUWA) to demonstrate the risk estimation of 10 different chemicals and examined the applicability and reliability of the model in ecological risk assessment by qualitatively and quantitatively comparing with the results of studies on multiple species using mesocosm tests. The qualitative comparison of the model results with those of the reported mesocosm tests indicated that some evidence observed in mesocosm studies supported the indirect effects predicted from simulation using the model. The comparison of the concentration levels at which 20% biomass reduction (BR20) in the most sensitive population estimated from the model with the no-observed effect concentration values derived from multiple species mesocosm tests (MS-NOEC) suggested that both data were related to each other and the model can be used to help in the determination of an ecological acceptable level of chemicals in aquatic environments. The analysis of the potential of indirect effects of a chemical for fish population indicated that the magnitude of the potential of indirect effects was quantified based on the ratio of BR50 to LC50 for fish population.     

MODELING FLOOD DAMAGE: CASE OF TOKAI FLOOD 20001

ABSTRACT: In conventional flood damage reduction studies, flood damage is usually estimated with a damage function according to the depth of inundation. However, this method may not reflect the conditions of each family residing in the floodplain because it ignores not only the distribution of flood damage but also the effect of building characteristics and residents' preparedness. This paper uses data from a questionnaire based survey (N= 3,036) conducted 17 months after the Tokai Flood of 2000 that caused disastrous losses to household properties. It provides a conceptual “doughnut structure” model of flood damage to houses and house contents and a mathematical basis for models to explore the determinants of flood damage. Besides the inundation depth, house type significantly affects both the house structural and content damage probabilities, while house ownership and house structure affect house damage probability but not house content damage probability at a given depth. Inundation depth, residing period, and household income significantly affect both house and content damage values. In addition, house ownership has a significant impact on the house damage value, while house structure has an impact on content damage value.     

A GIS-based evaluation of the effect of decontamination on effective doses due to long-term external exposures in Fukushima

Despite the enormous cost of radiation decontamination, there has been almost no quantitative discussion on how much it would reduce the long-term external radiation exposure in the Evacuation Zone and Planned Evacuation Zone (restricted zone) in Fukushima. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of decontamination and return options and to identify important parameters for estimating the long-term cumulated effective dose (CED) during 15, 30 and 70 year period using data on land-use, population and decontamination in the restricted zone (about 1100 km²) in Fukushima.     

Photodegradation fates of cis-chlordane, trans-chlordane, and heptachlor in ethanol

cis-Chlordane, trans-chlordane, and heptachlor were photodegraded in ethanol, and their degradation fates and degradation products were determined by a computational chemical method. The most degradable material was heptachlor (first-order reaction constant k=0.13 min(-1)). Chlorine balances changed during UV irradiation, and the chlorine atoms in chlordane and heptachlor were eventually mineralized. cis-Chlordane, trans-chlordane and heptachlor each generated two di-dechlorinated products. Reactivities at various positions in these compounds were predicted on the basis of bond dissociation energies calculated by nonempirical molecular orbital calculation (Gaussian 98W).     

WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to clarify public preferences for flood control measures in Japan, willingness to pay (WTP), and the main factors involved in WTP by applying the contingent valuation method. Findings showed that most residents surveyed expected some flood control measures, and revealed a diversity of interest in river management. WTP levels for different measures ranged from a mean of ¥2,887 to ¥4,861 and from a median of ¥1,000 to ¥2,000. However, WTP for additional flood risk reduction beyond initial levels was found to be zero. This was considered to be because WTP for flood risk reduction must be determined within a multi‐risk context. WTP for flood control measures may increase with per capita income, individual preparedness, and/or experience with flooding, but may decrease with distance from a river, acceptability of flood risk, and provision of environmental information. Furthermore, perception of flood risk may increase WTP, while perception of other risks may decrease it. Methods of dealing with environmental risk that were proposed in the survey may have affected WTP levels.