Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Water and sustainable development

In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building.     

Postfledging Dispersal of White-crowned Pigeons: Implications for Conservation of Deciduous Seasonal Forests in the Florida Keys

From 1988 to 1991, we studied the postfledging dispersal of 31 radio-tagged White-crowned Pigeons ( Columba leucocephala ) from three natal keys in Florida Bay. Immature birds dispersed from the natal keys at 26–45 days after batching, and most young dispersed more than 20 km during the first 10 days postdispersal. Dispersing birds flew either north to the Florida mainland or east to northeast to the mainline Florida Keys. On the mainland, immature birds fed nearly exclusively within Everglades National Park or an adjacent state wildlife management area. On the mainline keys, White-crowned Pigeons selectively used 5.01–20 ha forest fragments (p < 0.10) during the first 72 hours postdispersal. After this period, dispersing birds showed no preference among fragment size classes but used deciduous seasonal forests more frequently than suburban habitat(p < 0.10). The spatial pattern of dispersal on the mainline keys suggests that, during the first 72 hours postdispersal. White-crowned Pigeons are not able to reach northern Key Largo, where 69% of the deciduous seasonal forests are protected in state or federal ownership. Protection of large forest fragments, especially on southern Key Largo, should be a priority for maintaining populations of White-crowned Pigeons. These forests provide a series of "stepping stones" that enable dispersing immature White-crowned Pigeons to fly to more distant areas where habitat availability is less restricted. This species is threatened in Florida and may play an important role in maintaining plant species diversity in the seasonal deciduous forests of south Florida by dispersing seeds of at least 37 species of trees and shrubs. Protection of sufficient habitat to allow successful postfledging dispersal of this important seed disperser will also protect the ecosystem's biodiversity.     

Stabilimenta characteristics of the spider Argiope argentata on small islands: support of the predator-defense hypothesis

Summary A variety of orb-weaving spider species construct stabilimenta, patterned areas of dense silk, typically near the hub of the orb. The adaptive significance of this construction, along with associated behaviors such as shuttling and vibrating, is much debated. Arigiope argentata on small islands of the Bahamas frequently possess stabilimenta; we studied 397 individuals of this species to investigate possible functions of their stabilimenta, paying particular attention to predator-defense hypotheses. Cruciform stabilimenta were commoner in all size classes of spiders than discoid stabilimenta or no stabilimentum at all; discoid stabilimenta occurred mostly among intermediate size classes. Within the cruciform type, two-segmented stabilimenta were especially common among the very smallest spiders. Size of cruciform stabilimenta showed a curvilinear relation to spider body length; the fitted curve for total segment length had a maximum at an intermediate spider length. We argue that this relationship (among other phenomena) supports an apparently-larger-size hypothesis, whereby intermediate-sized spiders in particular appear much larger than they actually are. This could discourage predators, including those that are gape-limited such as lizards. We argue that stabilimenta in the smallest spiders, in which typically two segments are opposed, so that they more or less line up, serve as camouflage. When disturbed experimentally, spiders with discoid stabilimenta shuttle to the opposite side of the centrally located stabilimentum. This seems an obvious defensive behavior and occurs less frequently among spiders with cruciform stabilimenta. Large spiders vibrate more frequently than small ones, but no relation exists between vibration frequency and stabilimentum type. We argue (see also Tolbert 1975) that vibrating behavior, in which the spider can become a blur, renders its location more difficult to discern and the spider more difficult to grasp, rather than increasing apparent size. Correspondence to: T.W. Schoener     

Cumulative impact assessment in environmental planning: A coastal wetland watershed example

Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems.