Interinstrument comparison of remote-sensing devices and a new method for calculating on-road nitrogen oxides emissions and validation of vehicle-specific power

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by vehicles in real driving environments are only partially understood. This has been brought to the attention of the world with recent revelations of the cheating of the type of approval tests exposed in the dieselgate scandal. Remote-sensing devices offer investigators an opportunity to directly measure in situ real driving emissions of tens of thousands of vehicles. Remote-sensing NO₂ measurements are not as widely available as would be desirable. The aim of this study is to improve the ability of investigators to estimate the NO₂ emissions and to improve the confidence of the total NOx results calculated from standard remote-sensing device (RSD) measurements. The accuracy of the RSD speed and acceleration module was also validated using state-of-the-art onboard global positioning system (GPS) tracking. Two RSDs used in roadside vehicle emissions surveys were tested side by side under off-carriageway conditions away from transient pollution sources to ascertain the consistency of their measurements. The speed correlation was consistent across the range of measurements at 95% confidence and the acceleration correlation was consistent at 95% confidence intervals for all but the most extreme acceleration cases. VSP was consistent at 95% confidence across all measurements except for those at VSP ≥ 15 kW t^?1, which show a small underestimate. The controlled distribution gas nitric oxide measurements follow a normal distribution with 2σ equal to 18.9% of the mean, compared to 15% observed during factory calibration indicative of additional error introduced into the system. Systematic errors of +84 ppm were observed but within the tolerance of the control gas. Interinstrument correlation was performed, with the relationship between the FEAT and the RSD4600 being linear with a gradient of 0.93 and an R² of 0.85, indicating good correlation. A new method to calculate NOx emissions using fractional NO₂ combined with NO measurements made by the RSD4600 was constructed, validated, and shown to be more accurate than previous methods.

Implications: Synchronized remote-sensing measurements of NO were taken using two different remote-sensing devices in an off-road study. It was found that the measurements taken by both instruments were well correlated. Fractional NO₂ measurements from a prior study, measurable on only one device, were used to create new NO_x emission factors for the device that could not be measured by the second device. These estimates were validated against direct measurement of total NO_x emission factors and shown to be an improvement on previous methodologies. Validation of vehicle-specific power was performed with good correlation observed.     

Detection of low-grade mosaicism in fetal cells isolated from maternal blood

Recovering and analysing fetal erythrocytes from maternal blood is being pursued for non-invasive prenatal genetic diagnosis. We report the observation of 46, XY/47, XXY mosaicism in fetal cells from a woman whose first-trimester chorionic villus sampling (CVS) initially showed only 46, XY. Only after exhaustive (500 cells) analysis were four XXY cells found in cultured villi.     

Determinants of parental decisions to abort for chromosome abnormalities

Parental decisions concerning the continuation of pregnancy following prenatal detection of abnormal chromosomes were evaluated for 80 patients whose diagnosis and prenatal counselling were performed in our centre. Twenty-two anomalies were diagnosed by chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and 58 by amniocentesis. The severity of the chromosome anomaly and associated ultrasound findings in the first vs. second trimester were correlated with patients' decisions. No difference was found in the likelihood of parental decisions to interrupt or continue a pregnancy between CVS and amniocentesis for either the‘severe’ or the‘questionable’ group of chromosome anomalies. Ninety-three per cent of patients with severe prognosis and 27 per cent with questionable prognosis opted for pregnancy termination (p <0·0001). The association of ultrasound anomalies and termination was highly significant (p< 0·001). The severity of the chromosome anomaly, and, to a lesser extent, the visualization of anomalies on ultrasound were the major determinants of parental decisions to terminate the pregnancy. The diagnosis of an anomaly in the first trimester was no more likely ito lead to a termination of pregnancy than in the second trimester.     

Evaluation of simplifying assumptions on pesticide degradation in soil

There is evidence that degradation of pesticides in simple laboratory systems may differ from that in the field, but it is not clear which of the simplifications inherent in laboratory studies present serious shortcomings. Laboratory experiments evaluated several simplifying assumptions for a clay loam soil and contrasting pesticides. Degradation of cyanazine [2-(4-chloro-6-ethylamino-1,3,5-triazin-2-ylamino)-2-methylpropiononitrile] and bentazone [3-isopropyl-1H-2,1,3-benzothiadiazin-4(3H)-one 2,2-dioxide] at fluctuating temperature and moisture was predicted reasonably well based on parameters derived from degradation under constant conditions. There was a tendency for slower degradation of cyanazine and bentazone in soil aggregates of 3 to 5 mm in diameter (DT50 at 15 degrees C and 40% maximum water holding capacity of 25.1 and 58.2 d, where DT50 is the time for 50% decline of the initial pesticide concentration) than in soil sieved to <3 mm (DT50 of 19.1 and 37.6 d), but the differences were not significant for most datasets. Degradation of cyanazine, isoproturon [3-(4-isopropylphenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea], and chlorotoluron [3-(3-chloro-p-tolyl)-1,1-dimethylurea] was measured in soil amended with different amounts of lignin. The effect of lignin on degradation was small despite considerable differences in sorption. The DT50 values of cyanazine, isoproturon, and chlorotoluron were 16.2, 18.6, and 33.0 d, respectively, in soil without lignin and 19.0, 23.4, and 34.6 d, respectively, in soil amended with 2% lignin. Degradation of bentazone and cyanazine in repacked soil columns was similar under static and flow conditions with 50.1 and 47.2% of applied bentazone and 74.7 and 73.6% of applied cyanazine, respectively, degraded within 20 d of application. Thus, the assumptions underpinning laboratory to field extrapolation tested here were considered to hold for our experimental system. Additional work is required before general conclusions can be drawn.     

Quantifying the impact of regular cutting on vegetative buffer efficacy for nitrogen-15 sequestration

This study used the stable 15N isotope to quantitatively examine the effects of cutting on vegetative buffer uptake of NO3(-)-N based on the theory that regular cutting would increase N demand and sequestration by encouraging new plant growth. During the summer of 2002, 10 buffer plots were established within a flood-irrigated pasture. In 2003, 15N-labeled KNO3 was applied to the pasture area at a rate of 5 kg N ha(-1) and 99.7 atom % 15N. One-half of the buffer plots were trimmed monthly. In the buffers, the cutting effect was not significant in the first few weeks following 15N application, with both the cut and uncut buffers sequestering 15N. Over the irrigation season, however, cut buffers sequestered 2.3 times the 15N of uncut buffers, corresponding to an increase in aboveground biomass following cutting. Cutting and removing vegetation allowed the standing biomass to take advantage of soil 15N as it was released by microbial mineralization. In contrast, the uncut buffers showed very little change in 15N sequestration or biomass, suggesting senescence and a corresponding decrease in N demand. Overall, cutting significantly improved 15N attenuation from both surface and subsurface water. However, the effect was temporally related, and only became significant 21 to 42 d after 15N application. The dominant influence on runoff water quality from irrigated pasture remains irrigation rate, as reducing the rate by 75% relative to the typical rate resulted in a 50% decrease in total runoff losses and a sevenfold decrease in 15N concentration.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.