The Paradox of Forest Fragmentation Genetics

Abstract:  Theory predicts widespread loss of genetic diversity from drift and inbreeding in trees subjected to habitat fragmentation, yet empirical support of this theory is scarce. We argue that population genetics theory may be misapplied in light of ecological realities that, when recognized, require scrutiny of underlying evolutionary assumptions. One ecological reality is that fragment boundaries often do not represent boundaries for mating populations of trees that benefit from long-distance pollination, sometimes abetted by long-distance seed dispersal. Where fragments do not delineate populations, genetic theory of small populations does not apply. Even in spatially isolated populations, where genetic theory may eventually apply, evolutionary arguments assume that samples from fragmented populations represent trees that have had sufficient time to experience drift, inbreeding, and ultimately inbreeding depression, an unwarranted assumption where stands in fragments are living relicts of largely unrelated predisturbance populations. Genetic degradation may not be as important as ecological degradation for many decades following habitat fragmentation.     

Chytridiomycosis and Seasonal Mortality of Tropical Stream‐Associated Frogs 15 Years after Introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture‐mark‐recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0–65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12–15%) but high recruitment (71–91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host–pathogen co‐existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population‐level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. Quitridiomicosis y Mortalidad Estacional de Ranas Asociadas a Arroyos Tropicales Quince Años Después de la Introducción de Batrachochytrium dendrobatidisvsp     

Enhancing Avifauna in Commercial Plantations

Abstract:  The occurrence of fauna in commercial plantations is often associated with structural complexity. Through a meta-analysis, we tested whether the structural complexity of plantations could enhance bird species assemblages and whether bird assemblages respond differently depending on taxonomic affiliation, body size, and diet. Our analyses included 167 case studies in 31 countries in which bird assemblages in forests and plantations were compared and 42 case studies in 14 countries in which bird assemblages in plantations of different structural complexity were compared. Species richness, but not abundance, was higher in forests than in plantations. Both species richness and abundance were significantly higher in complex than in structurally simple plantations. Taxonomic representation and body size did not differ between forest and plantations, except that there were fewer insectivorous birds in plantations than in forests. In the comparison of simple versus complex plantations, abundance of all taxonomic and dietary groups was higher in complex plantations. Body size did not affect bird species richness or abundance. Independent of the type of plantation, bird richness and abundance were greater in structurally complex plantations. Enhancing the structural complexity of plantations may mitigate their impact and offer habitat for some native species.     

Effects of More Frequent and Prolonged El Niño Events on Life-History Parameters of the Degu, a Long-Lived and Slow-Reproducing Rodent

Abstract:  Global climate change (GCC) can have profound effects on species whose ecology is governed primarily by climatic factors. The ecology of small mammals inhabiting semiarid Chile is strongly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During La Niña events in this area, dry conditions prevail and species may disappear from the thorn-scrub habitat. Conversely, El Niño events bring high rainfall, and associated pulses of food trigger small-mammal population increases. We used capture–mark–recapture to study responses of the degu ( Octodon degus ), a dominant small mammal, to variation in rainfall over 18 years. In response to a recent trend toward wetter conditions, degus reached record-high densities and maintained more stable numbers in the area. Underlying mechanisms involved variation in adult survival, juvenile persistence, and fecundity linked to rainfall changes during consecutive years (i.e., rainfall phases). During prolonged droughts, degus had low survival and produced fewer offspring, with low persistence. Following high rainfall, these parameters reversed; consecutive wet years resulted in further increases. Weak declines in fecundity and adult survival and high persistence of juveniles explained delayed responses to deteriorating conditions in initial dry years. If GCC leads to increased frequency of El Niño events, we anticipate greater numerical dominance of degus in semiarid Chile and possible range expansion. Furthermore, degus have strong impacts on other small mammal and some plant species, are important prey species, and are agricultural pests and disease reservoirs. Hence, GCC has the potential to dramatically influence their ecology in northern Chile and to have cascading effects on other components of this system.     

Introduced Species and Management of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nothofagus/Austrocedrus</Emphasis> Forest

Isla Victoria (Nahuel Huapi National Park, Argentina), a large island dominated by native Nothofagus and Austrocedrus forest, has old plantations of many introduced tree species, some of which are famed invaders of native ecosystems elsewhere. There are also large populations of introduced deer and shrubs that may interact in a complex way with the introduced trees, as well as a recently arrived population of wild boar. Long-standing concern that the introduced trees will invade and transform native forest may be unwarranted, as there is little evidence of progressive invasion, even close to the plantations, despite over 50 years of opportunity. Introduced and native shrubs allow scattered introduced trees to achieve substantial size in abandoned pastures, but in almost all areas neither the trees nor the shrubs appear to be spreading beyond these sites. These shrub communities may be stable rather than successional, but the technology for restoring them to native forest is uncertain and probably currently impractical. Any attempt to remove the exotic tree seedlings and saplings from native forest would probably create the very conditions that would favor colonization by exotic plants rather than native trees, while simply clear-cutting the plantations would be unlikely to lead to regeneration of Nothofagus or Austrocedrus. The key to maintaining native forest is preventing catastrophic fire, as several introduced trees and shrubs would be favored over native dominant trees in recolonization. Deer undoubtedly interact with both native and introduced trees and shrubs, but their net effect on native forest is not yet clear, and specific management of deer beyond the current hunting by staff is unwarranted, at least if preventing tree invasion is the goal. The steep terrain and shallow soil make the recently arrived boar a grave threat to the native forest. Eradication is probably feasible and should be attempted quickly.     

Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas