Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides in soils from the East Antarctic coast

Concentrations of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), alpha-, beta- and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, 6 o,p'-and p,p'-isomers of DDT and 28 PCB congeners have been measured in eleven soil samples and one lichen collected on the Eastern coast of Antarctica from 5 Russian stations. For samples with low concentrations of PCBs (range 0.20-0.41 ng g(-1) dry weight) and pesticides (0.86-4.69 ng g(-1) and 0.11-1.22 ng g(-1) dry weight for HCHs and DDTs, respectively), atmospheric long-range transport from Africa, South America or Australia was suggested as the sole source of contamination. The profile of PCB congeners was dominated by the more volatile tri-, tetra- and penta-PCBs congeners, thus supporting long-range transport hypothesis. Four samples contained moderate levels of PCBs (range 1.98-6.94 ng g(-1) dry weight) and variable concentrations of pesticides (gamma-HCH, p,p'-DDT and o,p'-DDT being the main contaminants). For samples with high concentrations of PCBs (range 90.26-157.45 ng g(-1)) and high concentrations of pesticides, the presence of high molecular weight PCB congeners such as: 153, 180, 187, 170 etc, strongly suggest a local source (biotic) of PCBs rather than atmospheric transport. It is likely that on a local scale, biotic focussing of pollutants, due to bird activities (nesting and excrement) can cause high contamination levels and become more significant than contaminant input via abiotic pathways.     

Patients' attitudes following chorionic villus sampling

The attitudes of 190 patients who had undergone chorionic villus sampling (CVS) were assessed by means of a questionnaire. One hundred and fifty-two patients replied of whom 68 (45 per cent) were referred because of increased maternal age and in the other 84 cases the indications included previous chromosomal abnormalities, fetal sexing, DNA analysis, and biochemical analysis. One hundred and twenty-two patients had a transcervical procedure, 24 had a transabdominal, and six patients required both procedures. One hundred and forty-one patients (93 per cent) reported CVS to be a satisfactory procedure, and the same percentage thought earlier diagnosis was beneficial. Thirty-nine patients (81 per cent) reported a better experience with CVS than with a previous amniocentesis. A majority of patients (93 per cent) wished a CVS in a future pregnancy and 137 patients (97 per cent) would accept a risk of miscarriage from the procedure of twice that quoted for amniocentesis (1 per cent).     

Spatial variability of soil phosphorus in relation to the topographic index and critical source areas: sampling for assessing risk to water quality

A measure of soil P status in agricultural soils is generally required for assisting with prediction of potential P loss from agricultural catchments and assessing risk for water quality. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (i) investigating the soil P status, distribution, and variability, both spatially and with soil depth, of two different first-order catchments; and (ii) determining variation in soil P concentration in relation to catchment topography (quantified as the "topographic index") and critical source areas (CSAs). The soil P measurements showed large spatial variability, not only between fields and land uses, but also within individual fields and in part was thought to be strongly influenced by areas where cattle tended to congregate and areas where manure was most commonly spread. Topographic index alone was not related to the distribution of soil P, and does not seem to provide an adequate indicator for CSAs in the study catchments. However, CSAs may be used in conjunction with soil P data for help in determining a more "effective" catchment soil P status. The difficulties in defining CSAs a priori, particularly for modeling and prediction purposes, however, suggest that other more "integrated" measures of catchment soil P status, such as baseflow P concentrations or streambed sediment P concentrations, might be more useful. Since observed soil P distribution is variable and is also difficult to relate to nationally available soil P data, any assessment of soil P status for determining risk of P loss is uncertain and problematic, given other catchment physicochemical characteristics and the sampling strategy employed.     

Organochlorine contaminants in hair of adolescents from Iassy, Romania

Human hair samples (n=42) from Iassy county (Eastern Romania) collected in 2002-2003 from adolescents were analyzed for hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, p,p'-DDT and its metabolites, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), chlordane and metabolites and 5 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners. Very low levels were found for HCB and oxychlordane (0.8 and 2.5 ng g(-1)) indicating a low usage of these pesticide formulations in the studied area. In case of HCHs, gamma-HCH isomer was measured at higher median concentrations (79 ng g(-1) hair) compared to the beta-HCH isomer (55 ng g(-1)), which generally is the most prevalent from HCHs. The DDTs profile consisted in p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT which levels correspond to 81% of sum DDTs. Very high median concentrations measured for p,p'-DDT (192 ng g(-1)) combined with lower values for p,p'-DDE/p,p'-DDT of 0.4 (from 0.20 to 2.0) in all hair samples suggest recent exposure to "fresh" DDT. When gender was considered, significantly higher concentrations for most of the investigated contaminants were found in girls hair compared to boys. Very high levels were found in the present study for HCHs and DDTs compared to samples from Greece, Western Europe and China. In case of PCBs, the levels found in Romanian samples were found to be in the same range compared to other previously published data.     

Occurrence of alternative flame retardants in indoor dust from New Zealand: indoor sources and human exposure assessment

Due to worldwide restrictions on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the demand for alternative flame retardants (AFRs), such as organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), novel brominated FRs (NBFRs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs), has recently increased. Little is known about human exposure to NBFRs and OPFRs and that their levels in dust have been scarcely evaluated worldwide. To increase the knowledge regarding these chemicals, we measured concentrations of five major NBFRs, ten OPFRs and three HBCD isomers in indoor dust from New Zealand homes. Dust samples were taken from living room floors (n=34) and from mattresses of the same houses (n=16). Concentrations (ngg(-1)) of NBFRs were: 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE) (<2-175), decabromodiphenyl ethane (DBDPE) (<5-1430), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (TBB) (<2-2285) and bis(2-ethylhexyl)-3,4,5,6-tetrabromophthalate (TBPH) (<2-640). For OPFRs, concentrations (ngg(-1)) ranged between: tri-ethyl-phosphate (TEP) (<10-235), tri-n-butyl-phosphate (TnBP) (<20-7545), tris-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP) (<20-7605), tris-(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP) (20-7615), tri-(2-butoxyethyl)-phosphate (TBEP) (50-27325), tris-(2,3-dichloropropyl)-phosphate (TDCPP) (20-16560), tri-phenyl-phosphate (TPhP) (20-35190), and tri-cresyl-phosphate (TCP) (<50-3760). HBCD concentrations fell in the range <2-4100ngg(-1). BTBPE, DBDPE, TBPH, TBEP, and TnBP showed significant positive correlation (p<0.05) between their concentrations in mattresses and the corresponding floor dust (n=16). These data were used to derive a range of plausible exposure scenarios. Although the estimated exposure is well below the corresponding reference doses (RfDs), caution is needed given the likely future increase in use of these FRs and the currently unknown contribution to human exposure by other pathways such as inhalation and diet.     

Simplified contaminant source depletion models as analogs of multiphase simulators

Four simplified dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source depletion models recently introduced in the literature are evaluated for the prediction of long-term effects of source depletion under natural gradient flow. These models are simple in form (a power function equation is an example) but are shown here to serve as mathematical analogs to complex multiphase flow and transport simulators. The spill and subsequent dissolution of DNAPLs was simulated in domains having different hydrologic characteristics (variance of the log conductivity field=0.2, 1 and 3) using the multiphase flow and transport simulator UTCHEM. The dissolution profiles were fitted using four analytical models: the equilibrium streamtube model (ESM), the advection dispersion model (ADM), the power law model (PLM) and the Damkohler number model (DaM). All four models, though very different in their conceptualization, include two basic parameters that describe the mean DNAPL mass and the joint variability in the velocity and DNAPL distributions. The variability parameter was observed to be strongly correlated with the variance of the log conductivity field in the ESM and ADM but weakly correlated in the PLM and DaM. The DaM also includes a third parameter that describes the effect of rate-limited dissolution, but here this parameter was held constant as the numerical simulations were found to be insensitive to local-scale mass transfer. All four models were able to emulate the characteristics of the dissolution profiles generated from the complex numerical simulator, but the one-parameter PLM fits were the poorest, especially for the low heterogeneity case.     

Dissipation of four forest-use herbicides at high latitudes

Background, aim, and scope  Large-scale deforestation is occurring in subarctic North America following clearing by salvage logging or insect attack. Numerous shrubs, herbs, and deciduous tree species tend to dominate areas on which stands of white spruce have grown. In the absence of economically advantageous mechanical methods, several herbicides have value in efforts to reforest by planting white spruce. Glyphosate, imazapyr, triclopyr, and hexazinone are all capable of selectively removing many competing species, but there is concern about whether they would degrade naturally or persist owing to the frigid climate. Materials and methods  We established test plots with all four herbicides in upland and river bottom sites at 65°N and 58°N latitudes. The northern site has extremely cold winters, with soils that freeze to a depth of 1–2 m, and precipitation of 275 mm/year. The southern site has heavy rain and snowfall, amounting to 2,250 mm/year evenly distributed. Soil seldom freezes deeply. On each test plot, one of the four herbicides was applied at twice the normal operational use rate to facilitate detection. They were applied at the normal timing, with hexazinone, imazapyr, and triclopyr applied in June and glyphosate applied in fall. Soils were sampled immediately after treatment and those samples used as references for dissipation data gathered over the next 11–14 months from soil 0- to 15- and 15- to 45-cm depths. Results  Dissipation rates did not follow first-order rates because freezing conditions slowed most microbial activity. All products dissipated to close to or below detection limits within the time of the study. Dissipation from vegetation was substantially more rapid and depended on the nature of the plants treated as well as the product used. While soil residues dissipated more slowly than in temperate regions, they did display consistent dissipation patterns during above-freezing conditions and also the influence of microbial activity. Mobility was very limited with all products but hexazinone. Discussion  These products dissipate during summer in high latitudes much as they would in temperate climates. Winter changes are small, but are not unlike some changes reported elsewhere under freezing conditions. Unlike many other studies, soil water did not influence dissipation heavily, but the high latitude and semi-arid climate also did not create severely droughty soils. Residues in plants were much higher than those in soils, but denatured the vegetation quickly, leading to unsuitability for forage in any case. Conclusions  Low toxicity of these products and their metabolites combined with consistent dissipation and low mobility suggest that toxic hazard of their use at high latitudes need not be a matter of serious concern to humans, terrestrial wildlife, or aquatic systems. They are safe for use in management and rehabilitation of boreal forests when used properly. Recommendations and perspectives  Dissipation at rates approaching those in warmer climates offer a hypothesis that microflora native to high latitudes may be adapted to destruction of such molecules at lower temperatures than may be indicated by experiments with microflora adapted to warmer climates. Residues pose no observable risk to wildlife or humans in the area of use when products are applied properly. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available for authorized users.     

Acute toxic hazard evaluations of glyphosate herbicide on terrestrial vertebrates of the oregon coast range

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The degree to which dose responses of model organisms (lab rodents) can adequately predict dose responses of free-ranging wild mammals or amphibians is unknown, and the relative sensitivity of such species to body loading of a toxicant such as glyphosate is seldom reported. For relative effects of dosage, we compare sensitivity of nine wild vertebrate species to effects of high doses of glyphosate in Swiss-Webster laboratory mice both by gavage and by intraperitoneal injection. We also evaluate sublethal effects of herbicide exposure on behavior and reproductive success of one mammal and one amphibian species. METHODS: Comparisons of acute toxicity of glyphosate were made with intraperitoneal dosings of technical glyphosate isopropylamine salt to nine species of terrestrial vertebrates (five amphibians, four mammals) and compared with responses in Swiss-Webster laboratory mice. Animals collected from sites that had no recent herbicide application were allowed 7-14 days to equilibrate in captivity before treatment. RESULTS: Median lethal dose ranged from 800 to 1,340 mg kg(-1) in mammals, and 1,170 to >2,000 mg kg(-1) in amphibians, with Oregon vole being the most sensitive. White lab mice were in the middle of the mammalian range. Tailed frog, at >2,000 mg kg(-1) was the least sensitive. Calibration of IP sensitivity to oral administration by gavage indicated that roughly four times as much glyphosate must be administered to obtain a comparable estimate of lethality. Administration by gavage in highly concentrated solutions tended to cause physical injury, hence may prove less useful as a relative indicator of toxicity. When sublethal dosages were given to roughskin newts or chipmunks, mobility and use of cover appeared largely unaffected. DISCUSSION: Direct toxic effects of spraying glyphosate under normal forest management seem unlikely for the nine species examined. Nor could we detect significant indirect effects of exposure on behavior and use of cover features in two species. There may be effects on other aspects of the field biology of these animals, such as reproductive rates, which we did not investigate. Recent field data indicate that changes in habitat quality following herbicide application can result in high reproductive activity in species associated with the grasses and forbs that proliferate following field applications. CONCLUSIONS: When compared to field data on body burdens of wild mammals exposed after aerial application of glyphosate at maximum rates in forests, there seems to be a large margin of safety between dosages encountered and those causing either death or limitation of movement, foraging or shelter. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Margins of safety for small mammals and amphibians appear to be large under any probable exposure scenarios, however our results indicate high variability in responses among species. Uncertainty introduced into field studies from unknown sources of mortality (e.g, likely predation) must be considered when interpreting our results.