First-trimester free beta (hCG) screening for Down syndrome

Maternal serum free beta (hCG) levels are elevated (median 2·20 MOM) in the first trimester of pregnancy in 38 Down syndrome cases as compared with appropriate controls. This observation may form the basis for its use as a marker in screening for Down syndrome in the first trimester. Altered levels of the free beta analyte are observed in pregnancy conditions or complications other than Down syndrome.     

Are the costs worth the benefits? Shared perception and the aggregation of organizational climate ratings

A definitional component of organizational climate is the focus on employees' shared perceptions of the focal climate domain. To operationalize the notion of sharedness, researchers typically aggregate employees' domain‐specific climate perceptions to a higher level and justify this aggregation using quantitative indices of agreement. In the current paper, I argue that although accounting for sharedness among employees can provide some valuable insight, our overreliance on sharedness obscures some of the very organizational phenomena of interest. I discuss this issue by focusing on four costs of making unfounded assumptions regarding sharedness: (a) Aggregation assumes individual differences are a function of random error; (b) aggregation assumes that social situations are uniform across employees; (c) aggregation assumes that the unit of analysis is clear‐cut; and (d) aggregation assumes the group mean is meaningful. I argue that researchers carefully need to weigh the costs of violating these assumptions against the expected benefits of aggregating employees' climate perceptions, recognizing that sometimes employees' perceptions (i.e., psychological climate) might provide greater insight into phenomena of interest. Although I discuss these costs within the context of organizational climate research, these arguments apply to other research areas where individual perceptions are aggregated (e.g., research on leadership and teams).     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Simulating the fate and transport of TCE from groundwater to indoor air

This work provides an exploratory analysis on the relative importance of various factors controlling the fate and transport of volatile organic contaminants (in this case, TCE) from a DNAPL source zone located below the water table and into the indoor air. The analysis is conducted using the multi-phase compositional model CompFlow Bio, with the base scenario problem geometry reminiscent of a field experiment conducted by Rivett [Rivett, M.O., (1995), Soil–gas signatures from volatile chlorinated solvents: Borden field experiments. Groundwater, 33(1), 84–98.] at the Borden aquifer where groundwater was observed to transport a contaminant plume a substantial distance without vertical mass transport of the contaminant across the capillary fringe and into the vadose zone. Results for the base scenario model indicate that the structure of the permeability field was largely responsible for deflecting the groundwater plume upward towards the capillary fringe, permitting aqueous phase diffusion to transport the TCE into the vadose zone. Alternative permeability realizations, generated as part of a Monte Carlo simulation process, at times deflected the groundwater plume downwards causing the extended thickness of the saturated zone to insulate the vadose zone from exposure to the TCE by upward diffusive transport. Comparison of attenuation coefficients calculated using the CompFlow Bio and Johnson and Ettinger [Johnson, P.C. and Ettinger, R.A., (1991), Heuristic model for predicting the intrusion rate of contaminant vapors into buildings. Environmental Science and Technology, 25, 1445–1452.] heuristic model exhibited fortuitous agreement for the base scenario problem geometry, with this agreement diverging for the alternative permeability realizations as well as when parameters such as the foundation slab fracture aperture, the indoor air pressure drop, the capillary fringe thickness, and the infiltration rate were varied over typical ranges.     

Lidar quantification of bank erosion in Blue Earth County, Minnesota

Sediment and phosphorus (P) transport from the Minnesota River Basin to Lake Pepin on the upper Mississippi River has garnered much attention in recent years. However, there is lack of data on the extent of sediment and P contributions from riverbanks vis-à-vis uplands and ravines. Using two light detection and ranging (lidar) data sets taken in 2005 and 2009, a study was undertaken to quantify sediment and associated P losses from riverbanks in Blue Earth County, Minnesota. Volume change in river valleys as a result of bank erosion amounted to 1.71 million m over 4 yr. Volume change closely followed the trend: the Blue Earth River > the Minnesota River at the county's northern edge > the Le Sueur River > the Maple River > the Watonwan River > the Big Cobb River > Perch Creek > Little Cobb River. Using fine sediment content (silt + clay) and bulk density of 37 bank samples representing three parent materials, we estimate bank erosion contributions of 48 to 79% of the measured total suspended solids at the mouth of the Blue Earth and the Le Sueur rivers. Corresponding soluble P and total P contributions ranged from 0.13 to 0.20% and 40 to 49%, respectively. Although tall banks (>3 m high) accounted for 33% of the total length and 63% of the total area, they accounted for 75% of the volume change in river valleys. We conclude that multitemporal lidar data sets are useful in estimating bank erosion and associated P contributions over large scales, and for riverbanks that are not readily accessible for conventional surveying equipment.     

Assessment of organochlorine pesticide residues in Atlantic Rain Forest fragments, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

A superficial water quality survey in a watershed of the Paraíba do Sul River, the main water supply for the most populated cities of southeastern Brazil, was held in order to assess the impact of the expansion of agricultural activity in the near border of the Atlantic Rain Forest. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of priority organochlorine pollutants in soils and superficial waters of Atlantic rainforest fragments in Teresópolis, Rio de Janeiro State. Soil sample preparations were compared by using ultrasound, microwave assisted extraction and Soxhlet extraction. Recoveries of matrix spiked samples ranged from 70 to 130%. Analysis of a certified soil material showed recoveries ranging from 71 to 234%. Although low concentrations of organochlorine residues were found in water and soil samples, this area is of environmental importance and concern, thus demanding a monitoring program of its compartments.     

The health sector gap in the southern Africa crisis in 2002/2003

The southern Africa crisis represents the first widespread emergency in a region with a mature HIV/AIDS epidemic. It provides a steep learning curve for the international humanitarian system in understanding and responding to the complex interactions between the epidemic and the causes and the effects of this crisis. It also provoked much debate about the severity and causes of this emergency, and the appropriateness of the response by the humanitarian community. The authors argue that the over-emphasis on food aid delivery occurred at the expense of other public health interventions, particularly preventative and curative health services. Health service needs were not sufficiently addressed despite the early recognition that ill-health related to HIV/AIDS was a major vulnerability factor. This neglect occurred because analytical frameworks were too narrowly focused on food security, and large-scale support to health service delivery was seen as a long-term developmental issue that could not easily be dealt with by short-term humanitarian action. Furthermore, there were insufficient countrywide data on acute malnutrition, mortality rates and performance of the public health system to make better-balanced evidence-based decisions. In this crisis, humanitarian organisations providing health services could not assume their traditional roles of short-term assistance in a limited geographical area until the governing authorities resume their responsibilities. However, relegating health service delivery as a long-term developmental issue is not acceptable. Improved multisectoral analytical frameworks that include a multidisciplinary team are needed to ensure all aspects of public health are dealt with in similar future emergencies. Humanitarian organisations must advocate for improved delivery and access to health services in this region. They can target limited geographical areas with high mortality and acute malnutrition rates to deliver their services. Finally, to address the underlying problem of the health sector gap, a long-term strategy to ensure improved and sustainable health sector performance can only be accomplished with truly adequate resources. This will require renewed efforts on part of governments, donors and the international community. Public health interventions, complementing those addressing food insecurity, were and are still needed to reduce the impact of the crisis, and to allow people to re-establish their livelihoods. These will increase the population's resilience to prevent or mitigate future disasters.     

Maximum Plant-Community Endemism at Intermediate Intensities of Anthropogenic Disturbance in Bolivian Montane Forests

Abstract: I compared the endemism of four plant groups (Araceae, Bromeliaceae, Palmae, Pteridophyta) along gradients of increasing anthropogenic forest disturbance, from undisturbed mature forest to disturbed forest (logged, grazed, or burned), secondary forest, secondary scrub, and finally pasture, at 16 sites in the Bolivian Andes. I measured endemism as the mean inverse range size (number of 1° cells) of all species per study group encountered in each habitat and site. Overall, endemism was significantly higher in disturbed forest than in mature forest, but it declined in more strongly disturbed habitats. To explain the relationship of range size to habitat disturbance, I propose that endemic species are somewhat competitively inferior to other co-occurring taxa, limited in their ability to establish and maintain new populations following dispersal and thus to expand their ranges. Within their established ranges, endemic species depend on natural habitat disturbances to prevent their competitive exclusion by other species, so they profit from a certain level of anthropogenic disturbance. This pattern and the explanatory hypotheses should be subjected to critical evaluation. Although the pattern does not apply to every endemic tropical plant species, it indicates that conservation of part of the endemic tropical forest flora may be achieved in forest areas subject to sustainable forest use without the need to completely exclude human activities.     

Stand density index applied to timber and goshawk habitat objectives in Douglas-fir

Silvicultural guidelines are presented for the management of intermountain Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands for sawtimber production and goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) nesting habitat in the northern Rocky Mountains. Data from 14 goshawk nest stands in Douglas-fir forests on the Targhee National Forest in Idaho (Patla 1991) were used to characterize the range of stand conditions considered suitable for goshawk nesting. A density management regime is presented using Reineke's stand density index that includes a technical rotation designed to produce sawlogs with a single commercial thinning. On average timber-growing sites, stands reach goshawk habitat suitability when site height is 25 m at age 75 and provide 65 years of goshawk nesting habitat until the final harvest at age 140. Approximately 1320 m³/ha are harvested over the rotation. On higher-quality sites, rotation length declines from 140 to 85 years, of which roughly 35 years are suitable for goshawk nesting.