Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Soil testing to predict phosphorus leaching

Subsurface pathways can play an important role in agricultural phosphorus (P) losses that can decrease surface water quality. This study evaluated agronomic and environmental soil tests for predicting P losses in water leaching from undisturbed soils. Intact soil columns were collected for five soil types that a wide range in soil test P. The columns were leached with deionized water, the leachate analyzed for dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and the soils analyzed for water-soluble phosphorus (WSP), 0.01 M CaCl2 P (CaCl2-P), iron-strip phosphorus (FeO-P), and Mehlich-1 and Mehlich-3 extractable P, Al, and Fe. The Mehlich-3 P saturation ratio (M3-PSR) was calculated as the molar ratio of Mehlich-3 extractable P/[Al + Fe]. Leachate DRP was frequently above concentrations associated with eutrophication. For the relationship between DRP in leachate and all of the soil tests used, a change point was determined, below which leachate DRP increased slowly per unit increase in soil test P, and above which leachate DRP increased rapidly. Environmental soil tests (WSP, CaCl2-P, and FeO-P) were slightly better at predicting leachate DRP than agronomic soil tests (Mehlich-1 P, Mehlich-3 P, and the M3-PSR), although the M3-PSR was as good as the environmental soil tests if two outliers were omitted. Our results support the development of Mehlich-3 P and M3-PSR categories for profitable agriculture and environmental protection; however, to most accurately characterize the risk of P loss from soil to water by leaching, soil P testing must be fully integrated with other site properties and P management practices.     

Analysis and prediction of ecological and ecosystem dynamics with response structure models

A method of directly using data concerning species' responses to various combinations of levels of environmental factors is outlined. Examples of its utilization to analyze (and predict) the dynamics of the ecological processes of population growth, interspecific competition, and predation are given for simple systems; a simulation is presented wherein all of these processes interact within a simple ecosystem. A technique of summarizing the pattern and detail of variation of levels of combination of important environmental factors is also introduced. Together these methods permit application of real world information about the components of the biological community and the environment toward the modeling of ecosystems and the making of predictions concerning them to whatever degree of accuracy which may be useful.There are several major advantages of this approach: (1) It makes maximum use of real world data; the limits of its precision are determined only by the adequacy of the data available (hypothetical values also may be used where real data are unavailable and/or where such hypothetical values may be useful in model and theory development). (2) It is powerful (and applicable to the dynamics of diverse kinds of systems), mathematically very simple, and has important advantages in that non-linearities, thresholds, etc. are automatically and accurately taken into account. (3) It can be expressed numerically or graphically, and therefore is especially helpful in permitting visualization of ecological processes and the results of their action.     

Novel manure management technologies in no-till and forage introduction to the special series

Surface application of manures leaves nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) susceptible to being lost in runoff, and N can also be lost to the atmosphere through ammonia (IH3) volatilization. Tillage immediately after surface application of manure moves manure nutrients under the soil surface, where they are less vulnerable to runoff and volatilization loss. Tillage, however, destroys soil structure, can lead to soil erosion, and is incompatible with forage and no-till systems. A variety of technologies are now available to place manure nutrients under the soil surface, but these are not widely used as surface broadcasting is cheap and long established as the standard method for land application of manure. This collection of papers includes agronomic, environmental, and economic assessments of subsurface manure application technologies, many of which clearly show benefits when comparedwith surface broadcasting. However, there remain significant gaps in our current knowledge, some related to the site-specific nature of technological performance, others related to the nascent and incomplete nature of the assessment process. Thus, while we know that we can improve land application of manure and the sustainability of farming systems with alternatives to surface broadcasting, many questions remain concerning which technologies work best for particular soils, manure types, and farming and cropping systems.     

Response of thermal stressed bobwhite to organophosphorus exposure

Constant and intermittent cold stressed juvenile northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) were exposed to chlorpyrifos, an organophosphorus insecticide, following avian dietary LC(50) test procedures. Chlorpyrifos concentrations ranged from 100 to 1000 ppm; ambient temperatures (T(a)) included 35.0 (control), 32.5, 30.0 and 27.5 degrees C. Survival decreased significantly under constant cold conditions. Non-survivors averaged 33% weight loss, but survivor weight dropped with increasing dose and decreasing T(a). Control quail at all temperatures maintained a constant body temperature (T(b)); however, T(b) of dosed quail fell with increasing dose and decreasing T(a). Non-surviving cold stressed quail had higher cholinesterase (ChE) activity that non-survivors at 35 degrees C; in addition, dead quail failed to average the 50% inhibition of ChE used to implicate a ChE depressant in death. Daily exposure of quail to 12 h of warmth increased survival. Survivors of intermittent cold stress experienced less weight loss than constant cold survivors due to reduced metabolic costs. Synergistic effects were evident in juvenile northern bobwhite exposed simultaneously to chlorpyrifos and cold stress; however, mortality and certain sublethal effects were mitigated when cold exposure was intermittent.     

The effect of navigational expertise on wayfinding in new environments

Becoming proficient at navigation in urban environments is something that we all aspire to. Here we asked whether being an expert at wayfinding in one environment has any effect on learning new spatial layouts. Licensed London taxi drivers are among the most proficient urban navigators, training for many years to find their way around a complex and irregularly-laid out city. We first tested how well they could learn the layout of an unfamiliar town compared with a group of non-taxi drivers. Second, we investigated how effectively taxi drivers could integrate a new district into their existing spatial representation of London. We found that taxi drivers were significantly better than control participants at executing routes through the new town, and representing it at a map-like survey level. However, the benefits of navigational expertise were not universal. Compared with their performance in the new town, taxi drivers were significantly poorer at learning the layout of a new area that had to be integrated with their existing knowledge of London. We consider reasons for this picture of facilitation and limitation, in particular drawing parallels with how knowledge acquisition occurs in the context of expertise in general.     

What aspect of dietary modification in broilers controls litter water-soluble phosphorus: dietary phosphorus, phytase, or calcium?

Environmental concerns about phosphorus (P) losses from animal agriculture have led to interest in dietary strategies to reduce the concentration and solubility of P in manures and litters. To address the effects of dietary available phosphorus (AvP), calcium (Ca), and phytase on P excretion in broilers, 18 dietary treatments were applied in a randomized complete block design to each of four replicate pens of 28 broilers from 18 to 42 d of age. Treatments consisted of three levels of AvP (3.5, 3.0, and 2.5 g kg(-1)) combined with three levels of Ca (8.0, 6.9, and 5.7 g kg(-1)) and two levels of phytase (0 and 600 phytase units [FTU]). Phytase was added at the expense of 1.0 g kg(-1) P from dicalcium phosphate. Fresh litter was collected from pens when the broilers were 41 d of age and analyzed for total P, soluble P, and phytate P as well as P composition by (31)P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Results indicated that the inclusion of phytase at the expense of inorganic P or reductions in AvP decreased litter total P by 28 to 43%. Litter water-soluble P (WSP) decreased by up to 73% with an increasing dietary Ca/AvP ratio, irrespective of phytase addition. The ratio of WSP/total P in litter decreased as the dietary Ca/AvP ratio increased and was greater in the phytase-amended diets. This study indicated that while feeding reduced AvP diets with phytase decreased litter total P, the ratio of Ca/AvP in the diet was primarily responsible for effects on WSP. This is important from an environmental perspective as the amount of WSP in litter could be related to potential for off-site P losses following land application of litter.