SESAR safety decision-making: Lessons from environmental,nuclear and defense modeling

SESAR, the ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research’ program, envisages radical changes for European Air Traffic Management (ATM). It integrates and implements new technologies and information processing. This paper examines the safety decision-making in the implementation of SESAR projects. SESAR poses new safety problems because it adopts new paradigms for ATM safety – what lessons are there from environmental, nuclear and defense modeling? These disciplines have also had to confront the limitations of modeling the rates of rare and damaging – even catastrophic – events. A major conceptual change in SESAR is that of automated separation assurance systems. Some existing responsibilities transfer from the controller – either to the pilot or to computer systems – in a progressively phased approach. The major problem for SESAR safety validation is that mixed equipage/operations within a common airspace potentially generate new and different safety issues regarding the validation of safety predictions. A potential way forward uses high-fidelity Human In The Loop Simulations (HITLS) to generate confidence in the resilience of the ATM system. The focus changes from proving safety, i.e. through traditional kinds of validation processes, to extensive resilience testing using these simulations. The aim would be to test how resilient the system is to seeded errors, penetration testing, and crash/stress testing. This would be a high cost process because of the large investments required and the need for long sequences of testing. However, these demanding processes can provide ‘justified belief’ to the decision-maker that the changed ATM system is acceptably safe.     

In situ exposures using caged organisms: a multi-compartment approach to detect aquatic toxicity and bioaccumulation

An in situ toxicity and bioaccumulation assessment approach is described to assess stressor exposure and effects in surface waters (low and high flow), the sediment-water interface, surficial sediments and pore waters (including groundwater upwellings). This approach can be used for exposing species, representing major functional and taxonomic groups. Pimephales promelas, Daphnia magna, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Hyalella azteca, Hyalella sp., Chironomus tentans, Lumbriculus variegatus, Hydra attenuatta, Hexagenia sp. and Baetis tibialis were successfully used to measure effects on survival, growth, feeding, and/or uptake. Stressors identified included chemical toxicants, suspended solids, photo-induced toxicity, indigenous predators, and flow. Responses varied between laboratory and in situ exposures in many cases and were attributed to differing exposure dynamics and sample-processing artifacts. These in situ exposure approaches provide unique assessment information that is complementary to traditional laboratory-based toxicity and bioaccumulation testing and reduce the uncertainties of extrapolating from the laboratory to field responses.     

Experts,Bayesian Belief Networks,rare events and aviation risk estimates

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) are conceptually sensible models for aviation risk assessment. The aim here is to examine the ability of BBN-based techniques to make accurate aviation risk predictions. BBNs consist of a framework of causal factors linked by conditional probabilities. BBN conditional probabilities are elicited from aviation experts. The issue is that experts are not being asked about their expertise but about others’ failure rates. A simple model of expertise, which incorporates the main features proposed by researchers, implies that a best-expert’s estimates of failure rates are based on accessible quantitative data on accidents, incidents, etc. Best-expert estimates will use the best available and accessible data. Depending on the frequency of occurrence, this will be data on similar events, on similar types of event, or general mental rules about event frequencies. These considerations, plus the need to be cautious about statistical fluctuations, limit the accuracy of conditional probability estimates. The BBN framework assumes what is known as the Causal Markov Condition. In the present context, this assumes that there are no hidden common causes for sequences of failure events. Examples are given from safety regulation comparisons and serious accident investigations to indicate that common causes may be frequent occurrences in aviation. This is because some States/airlines have safety cultures that do not meet ‘best practice’. BBN accuracy might be improved by using data from controlled experiments. Aviation risk assessment is now very difficult, so further work on resilience engineering could be a better way of achieving safety improvements.     

Multiple-front iron-mineralisation in chiton teeth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Acanthopleura</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">echinata</Emphasis>: Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The mineralisation of iron in the major lateral teeth of the chiton Acanthopleura echinata has been examined using light and electron microscopy, together with energy dispersive and Raman spectroscopy. The deposition of magnetite in the posterior region of the tooth cusp has been shown to occur simultaneously on two fronts, from both the anterior and posterior sides. In contrast, in the lepidocrocite region, the mineral is formed by aggregation over the whole region. In addition, evidence is presented for the existence of a thin veneer of ferrihydrite over the surface of the magnetite region. The veneer preserves this region from oxidation prior to use in the mature tooth. Data also suggest that the junction zone plays a vital role in the overall biomineralisation process, contributing large amounts of iron at critical stages of development.     

Increasing litter species richness reduces variability in a terrestrial decomposer system

Debate on the relationship between diversity and stability has been driven by the recognition that species loss may influence ecosystem properties and processes. We conducted a litterbag experiment in the Scottish Highlands, United Kingdom, to examine the effects of altering plant litter diversity on decomposition, microbial biomass, and microfaunal abundance. The design of treatments was fully factorial and included five species from an upland plant community (silver birch, Betula pendula; Scots' pine, Pinus sylvestris; heather, Calluna vulgaris; bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus; wavy-hair grass, Deschampsia flexuosa); species richness ranged from one to five species. We tested the effects of litter species richness and composition on variable means, whether increasing litter species richness reduced variability in the decomposer system, and whether any richness-variability relationships were maintained over time (196 vs. 564 days). While litter species composition effects controlled variable means, we revealed reductions in variability with increasing litter species richness, even after accounting for differences between litter types. These findings suggest that higher plant species richness per se may result in more stable ecosystem processes (e.g., decomposition) and decomposer communities. Negative richness-variation relationships generally relaxed over time, presumably because properties of litter mixtures became more homogeneous. However, given that plant litter inputs continue to enter the belowground system over time, we conclude that variation in ecosystem properties may be buffered by greater litter species richness.     

Modelling spatial variability using soil profiles in the Riverland of South Australia.

The soils of the Riverland vary significantly throughout the region. Soils from a vineyard near Loxton, whilst having only half the topsoil depth of two near Waikerie, are comparable in water-holding capacity because the soils are less sandy. Topographic difference can cause an additional variation between areas in the same neighbourhood. Highland soils typically develop a dune swale topography that gives rise to anisotropic semivariograms. First slope soils on the other hand give isotropic semivariograms. Semivariograms for topsoil depth and readily available water (RAW) for the three vineyards are used in the calculation of the efficiency of the sampling grids employed to gain an understanding of the soils. Kriging variance values have been calculated for 1, 2, 3 and 4 hectare square irrigation valve areas (IVAs) using the industry standard grid 75 x 75 m as well as grids 50 x 50 m and 100 x 100 m. Choice of the appropriate sampling grid to achieve a specified accuracy can thus be made.     

Population structure of the giant tiger prawn Penaeus monodon in Australian waters, determined using microsatellite markers

 We describe three highly polymorphic microsatellite loci which have been isolated from the giant tiger prawn Penaeus monodon. The number of alleles present among 312 samples at the loci Pmo9, Pmo25 and Pmo27 were 84, 34 and 35, respectively, with heterozygosities all >90%. Analyses of the distribution of length variation at three microsatellite loci among five Australian P. monodon populations revealed strong differentiation between populations from the west and those from the northern and eastern coasts. Tests for population differentiation (F st) values and an analogous measure for microsatellite loci (R st) all demonstrated that Western Australian P. monodon are a separate genetic stock which exhibits reduced genetic variation relative to the other populations. Reduced variability is consistent with a recent population bottleneck or colonization by a small founding population from the east when sea links between Indonesia, New Guinea and Australia were re-established following the last ice age. The results of this study are in agreement with previous surveys of P. monodon conducted with allozymes and mtDNA. Received: 18 December 1998 / Accepted: 27 August 1999