Population dynamics and control of invasive Spartina alterniflora: inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Managing invaded ecosystems entails making decisions about control strategies in the face of scientific uncertainty and ecological stochasticity. Statistical tools such as model selection and Bayesian decision analysis can guide decision-making by estimating probabilities of outcomes under alternative management scenarios, but these tools have seldom been applied in invasion ecology. We illustrate the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in a case study of smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) invading Willapa Bay, Washington. To address uncertainty in model structure, we quantified the weight of evidence for two previously proposed hypotheses, that S. alterniflora recruitment varies with climatic conditions (represented by sea surface temperature) and that recruitment is subject to an Allee effect due to pollen limitation. By fitting models to time series data, we found strong support for climate effects, with higher per capita seedling production in warmer years, but no evidence for an Allee effect based on either the total area invaded or the mean distance between neighboring clones. We used the best-supported model to compare alternative control strategies, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and population dynamics. For a fixed annual removal effort, the probability of eradication in 10 years was highest, and final invaded area lowest, if removals targeted the smallest clones rather than the largest or randomly selected clones. The relationship between removal effort and probability of eradication was highly nonlinear, with a sharp threshold separating -0% and -100% probability of success, and this threshold was 95% lower in simulations beginning early rather than late in the invasion. This advantage of a rapid response strategy is due to density-dependent population growth, which produces alternative stable equilibria depending on the initial invasion size when control begins. Our approach could be applied to a wide range of invasive species management problems where appropriate data are available.     

超微气泡富氧+生物活化技术在黑臭水体治理中的工程应用

针对当前黑臭河道治理工作中出现的黑臭反复,长效性难保持问题,以某内源污染严重的重度黑臭河道为例实施原位生态修复。第1阶段采用超微气泡富氧（移动式曝气船+定点式曝气设备）和生物活化技术进行水体和底质修复,削减内源污染,改善生境;第2阶段应用定点式曝气设备、生态浮岛、水生植物净化、水生动物多样性调控进行生态修复,营造健康稳定的生态系统。经过近4个月的治理,治理区水质由重度黑臭稳定达到GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》Ⅴ类水标准,水体COD、NH₃-N和TP含量分别为28.79,0.36,0.19 mg/L,去除率分别达到45%、98%和85%以上,治理后水体澄清,可见多种水生动物和沉水植物,河道底质呈现自然泥土色泽,在未进行清淤处理的情况下即达到了泥水共治的效果,水环境质量得到显著提升,实现了长效治理。     

三唑酮在设施栽培土壤及大白菜中的消解动态及残留

为评价三唑酮在大白菜施用后的环境安全性,建立了GC测定蔬菜及土壤中三唑酮残留的方法,进行露地与设施栽培条件三唑酮在大白莱和土壤中的消解动态和最终残留研究.在大白菜和土壤中的最低检测质量分数均为0.001 mg/kg,三唑酮的平均加标回收率为81.5％～110.6％,变异系数为1.32％～6.04％.消解动态试验为2倍推荐使用剂量施药1次,三唑酮在设施栽培大白菜的半衰期分别为2.72～3.30 d和3.21～3.35 d;露地栽培为2.35～2.87 d和2.30～3.12 d.设施栽培大白菜中三唑酮残留量与用药量正相关,随着施药量的增加,消解速度减慢,残留量相应增大.研究可为制定三唑酮设施栽培大白菜上最大残留限量和合理使用准则以及风险评估提供科学依据.