Effects of El Niño on distribution and reproductive performance of Black Brant

Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Ni?o and non-El Ni?o years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Ni?o event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Ni?o since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Ni?o event in the winter of 1997-1998 than in non-El Ni?o years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.     

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. Ther was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty.     

Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but it remains impractical for many species, particularly species with multiple, broadly distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently developed method of multiple-population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We built on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), a species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, that is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin (U.S.A.). We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams, where LCT exist or may be reintroduced. Conservation populations (those managed for recovery) tended to have lower extinction risks than nonconservation populations (mean = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), but not always. Active management or reprioritization may be warranted in some cases. Eliminating non-native trout had a strong positive effect on overall carrying capacities for LCT populations but often did not translate into lower extinction risks unless simulations also reduced associated stochasticity (to the mean for populations without non-native trout). Sixty fish or 5–10 fish/km was the minimum reintroduction number and density, respectively, that provided near-maximum reintroduction success. This modeling framework provided crucial insights and empirical justification for conservation planning and specific adaptive management actions for this threatened species. More broadly, MPVA is applicable to a wide range of species exhibiting geographic rarity and limited availability of abundance data and greatly extends the potential use of empirical PVA for conservation assessment and planning.     

Carryover aquatic effects on survival of metamorphic frogs during pond emigration.

In organisms with complex life cycles, physiological stressors during early life stages may have fitness-level impacts that are delayed into later stages or habitats. We tested the hypothesis that body size and date of metamorphosis, which are highly responsive to aquatic stressors, influence post-metamorphic survival and movement patterns in the terrestrial phase of an ephemeral pond-breeding frog by examining these traits in two populations of northern red-legged frogs (Rana aurora aurora). To increase variation of body size at metamorphosis, we manipulated food availability for 314 of 1045 uniquely marked tadpoles and estimated the probability that frogs survived and emigrated using concentric rings of drift fencing surrounding ponds and Bayesian capture-recapture modeling. The odds of surviving and emigrating from the ponds to the innermost drift fences, approximately 12 m, increased by factors of 2.20 (95% credibility intervals 1.39-4.23) and 2.54 (0.94-4.91) with each millimeter increase in snout-vent length and decreased by factors of 0.91 (0.85-0.96) and 0.89 (0.80-1.00) with each day's delay in metamorphosis for the two ponds. The odds of surviving and moving to the next ring of fencing, 12 m to approximately 40 m from the ponds, increased by a factor of 1.20 (0.45-4.06) with each millimeter increase in size. Our results demonstrated that body size and timing of metamorphosis relate strongly to the performance of newly metamorphosed frogs during their initial transition into terrestrial habitat. Carryover effects of aquatic stressors that reduce size and delay metamorphosis may have population-level impacts that are not expressed until terrestrial stages. Since changes in both aquatic and terrestrial systems are implicated in many amphibian declines, quantifying both immediate and delayed effects of stressors on demographic rates is critical to sound management.