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Elie Gaget Diego Pavón-Jordán Alison Johnston Aleksi Lehikoinen Wesley M. Hochachka Brett K. Sandercock Alaaeldin Soultan Hichem Azafzaf Nadjiba Bendjedda Taulant Bino Luka Božič Preben Clausen Mohamed Dakki Koen Devos Cristi Domsa Vitor Encarnação Kiraz Erciyas-Yavuz Sándor Faragó Teresa Frost Clemence Gaudard Lívia Gosztonyi Fredrik Haas Menno Hornman Tom Langendoen Christina Ieronymidou Vasiliy A. Kostyushin Lesley J. Lewis Svein-Håkon Lorentsen Leho Luigujõe Włodzimierz Meissner Tibor Mikuska Blas Molina Zuzana Musilová Viktor Natykanets Jean-Yves Paquet Nicky Petkov Danae Portolou Jozef Ridzoň Samir Sayoud Marko Šćiban Laimonas Sniauksta Antra Stīpniece Nicolas Strebel Norbert Teufelbauer Goran Topić Danka Uzunova Andrej Vizi Johannes Wahl Marco Zenatello Jon E. Brommer 《Conservation biology》2021,35(3):834-845
Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming. 相似文献
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Gavin McDonald Molly Wilson Diogo Veríssimo Rebecca Twohey Michaela Clemence Dean Apistar Stephen Box Paul Butler Fel Cesar Cadiz Stuart J. Campbell Courtney Cox Micah Effron Steve Gaines Raymond Jakub Roquelito H. Mancao Pablo T. Rojas Rocky Sanchez Tirona Gabriel Vianna 《Conservation biology》2020,34(5):1176-1189
Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized. 相似文献
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Landslide Susceptibility Assessment and Validation in the Framework of Municipal Planning in Portugal: The Case of Loures Municipality 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
The legislation that demands the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Portugal at the municipal level is the National Ecological Reserve (NER). A methodology for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility to be used in municipal planning is applied in Loures Municipality (169.3?km2) located north of Lisbon (Portugal). A landslide inventory was made for the whole area interpreting orthophoto maps and aerial photographs and using standard geomorphologic techniques in field work. It consists of 686 polygons, each polygon representing a rotational, a deep translational or a shallow translational slide, and is integrated into a GIS database. Landslide susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Information Value Method) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. Three susceptibility models are elaborated independently according to the type of slide (rotational, deep translational, shallow translational). The landslide susceptibility maps are prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. The robustness and accuracy of the landslide susceptibility models are evaluated by prediction-rate curves, which are used for the quantitative interpretation of the landslide susceptibility maps. Unstable slopes that have to be included into the National Ecological Reserve are extracted from the three susceptibility maps following the general rules to draw the NER that state that the area to be included in the NER should guarantee the inclusion of at least 70?% of the landslides identified in the landslide inventory. The obtained results allow us to conclude that 70?% of the future landslides should occur in these areas, classified as most susceptible to landslides corresponding to 20.3?% of the total area of Municipality. Thus, the consideration of these 20.3?% as regards prevention and protection of landslide risk could potentially reduce damage resulting from 70?% of future landslides in the Loures Municipality. 相似文献
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Bayesian spatial prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Gaudard Marie Karson Marvin Linder Ernst Sinha Debajyoti 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》1999,6(2):147-171
This paper presents a complete Bayesian methodology for analyzing spatial data, one which employs proper priors and features diagnostic methods in the Bayesian spatial setting. The spatial covariance structure is modeled using a rich class of covariance functions for Gaussian random fields. A general class of priors for trend, scale, and structural covariance parameters is considered. In particular, we obtain analytic results that allow easy computation of the predictive distribution for an arbitrary prior on the parameters of the covariance function using importance sampling. The computations, as well as model diagnostics and sensitivity analysis, are illustrated with a set of precipitation data. 相似文献
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Elie Gaget Alison Johnston Diego Pavón-Jordán Aleksi S. Lehikoinen Brett K. Sandercock Alaaeldin Soultan Luka Božič Preben Clausen Koen Devos Cristi Domsa Vitor Encarnação Sándor Faragó Niamh Fitzgerald Teresa Frost Clemence Gaudard Lívia Gosztonyi Fredrik Haas Menno Hornman Tom Langendoen Christina Ieronymidou Leho Luigujõe Włodzimierz Meissner Tibor Mikuska Blas Molina Zuzana Musilová Jean-Yves Paquet Nicky Petkov Danae Portolou Jozef Ridzoň Laimonas Sniauksta Antra Stīpniece Norbert Teufelbauer Johannes Wahl Marco Zenatello Jon E. Brommer 《Conservation biology》2022,36(4):e13877
Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds. 相似文献
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