FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

Food quality, competition, and parasitism influence feeding preference in a neotropical lepidopteran

We surveyed Lepidoptera found on 11 species of Inga (Fabaceae:Mimosoideae) co-existing on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to evaluate factors influencing diet choice. Of the 47 species of caterpillars (747 individuals) recorded, each fed on a distinct set of Inga. In the field, 96% of the individuals were found on young leaves. Growth rates of caterpillars that were fed leaves in the laboratory were 60% higher on young leaves compared to mature leaves. When caterpillars were fed leaves of nonhost Inga, they grew more slowly. These data provide support for a link between preference and performance. However, among hosts on which larvae normally occurred, faster growth rates were not associated with greater host electivity (the proportion of larvae found on each host species in the field, corrected for host abundance). Growth rates on normal hosts were positively correlated with leaf expansion rates of the host, and fast expansion was associated with leaves with higher nutritional content. Detailed studies on a gelechiid leaf roller, the species with the largest diet breadth, allowed us to assess the importance of factors other than growth that could influence diet electivity. This species showed a 1.7-fold difference in growth rate among Inga hosts and faster growth on species with fast-expanding leaves. However, there was no correlation between caterpillar growth rate and abundance on different host species. Instead, abundance of the gelechiid on each Inga species was significantly correlated with the temporal predictability of food (synchrony of leaf flushing) and was negatively correlated with competition (amount of leaf area removed by species other than the gelechiid). Although rates of parasitism were high (23-43%), there were no differences among hosts. Parasitism was also not related to measures of escape, such as growth rates of caterpillars, leaf expansion rates, and synchrony of leaf production. Together, food availability, parasitism, and competition explained 84% of the variation in host preference by the gelechiid. We suggest that these ecological interactions may be particularly important in determining diet choice initially and that preferences may be reinforced by subsequent divergence in host chemistry and/or the herbivore's ability to tolerate the secondary metabolites.     

Cross-sectional biomonitoring study of pesticide exposures in Queensland,Australia, using pooled urine samples

A range of pesticides are available in Australia for use in agricultural and domestic settings to control pests, including organophosphate and pyrethroid insecticides, herbicides, and insect repellents, such as N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET). The aim of this study was to provide a cost-effective preliminary assessment of background exposure to a range of pesticides among a convenience sample of Australian residents. De-identified urine specimens stratified by age and sex were obtained from a community-based pathology laboratory and pooled (n = 24 pools of 100 specimens). Concentrations of urinary pesticide biomarkers were quantified using solid-phase extraction coupled with isotope dilution high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric mean biomarker concentrations ranged from <0.1 to 36.8 ng/mL for organophosphate insecticides, <0.1 to 5.5 ng/mL for pyrethroid insecticides, and <0.1 to 8.51 ng/mL for all other biomarkers with the exception of the DEET metabolite 3-diethylcarbamoyl benzoic acid (4.23 to 850 ng/mL). We observed no association between age and concentration for most biomarkers measured but noted a “U-shaped” trend for five organophosphate metabolites, with the highest concentrations observed in the youngest and oldest age strata, perhaps related to age-specific differences in behavior or physiology. The fact that concentrations of specific and non-specific metabolites of the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos were higher than reported in USA and Canada may relate to differences in registered applications among countries. Additional biomonitoring programs of the general population and focusing on vulnerable populations would improve the exposure assessment and the monitoring of temporal exposure trends as usage patterns of pesticide products in Australia change over time.     

Cytogenetic diagnoses after chorionic villus sampling are less reliable in very-high- or very-low-risk pregnancies

An increasing number of cytogenetic prenatal diagnoses are performed on chorionic villus samplings. The accuracy of this method is influenced by chromosomal mosaicism, mostly confined to direct preparation methods. Especially those investigators who have experienced false-negative and false-positive findings propagate the combined use of direct and culture methods. Yet large collaborative studies have shown that in approximately two-thirds of diagnostic cases only one procedure is applied. Moreover, the accuracy of a cytogenetic investigation depends not only on the ontogenetic origin of the tissues investigated, but also on interacting factors such as the ‘a priori risk’ and the ‘predictive value of a cytogenetic finding’. On this basis a differentiated prenatal diagnostic procedure is discussed, including either sole short-term culture (STC), combined STC and long-term culture (LTC), primary amniocentesis (AC), or primary percutaneous umbilical blood sampling (PUBS). The predictive value of the cytogenetic diagnosis from CVS varies significantly dependent on the a priori risk of a chromosome aberration and, in the case of an abnormal karyotype, on the specific chromosome involved. A non-mosaic and ‘non-lethal’ trisomy detected in STC is highly representative of the embryo/fetus, but there are exceptions of limited predictive value, e.g., trisomy 18. Guided by the strategy of an optional follow-up by LTC, AC, or PUBS in 1317 successive CV samplings, we are not aware of a false-negative diagnosis, but probably had one false-positive diagnosis: 47,XXY after STC; 46,XY after LTC. When referring to the rate of fetuses with an unbalanced karyotype expected in the different indication groups, a relative increase of false-positive findings in the very-low-risk group (maternal age ⩽35 years of age) and of false-negative findings in the very-high-risk group (abnormal ultrasonographic findings) of pregnant women when only performing CVS becomes obvious. Because of this dilemma, AC or—especially in the latter group—PUBS might be primarily offered to these indication groups instead of CVS.