Stratification and Circulation in a Shallow Turbid Waterbody

Shallow waterbodies are often assumed to be well mixed in the vertical. However, when they are characterised by high turbidity levels, absoption of solar heating within a relatively thin surface layer can produce thermal stratification. Results from an intensive monitoring program have been combined with three-dimensional circulation modelling to examine the diurnal stratification cycles in a small turbid waterbody. The waterbody, known as Rushy Billabong, is located in southeastern Australia and its high turbidity coupled with forcing by wind and solar radiation resulted in regular diurnal cycles of stratification and overturning. Under conditions of light wind and high solar radiation, the model results were generally consistent with the observed temperature field. However, under stronger winds, preferential cooling and sinking of shallow water around the edge of the lake began to contribute significantly to the interior stratification. Model estimates then became more sensitive to the detailed bathymetry and the choice of turbulence parameterisation. The level of stratification is also shown to influence the circulation in the billabong by trapping the wind-driven flow near the surface. Insights provided by the observations and modelling may have broader implications for the management of small turbid systems such as settling ponds, aquaculture ponds, and some natural wetlands.     

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long‐term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species’ potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18‐fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected.