Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.     

Human impacts, plant invasion, and imperiled plant species in California.

Invasive species are one of the fastest growing conservation problems. These species homogenize the world's flora and fauna, threaten rare and endemic species, and impose large economic costs. Here, we examine the distribution of 834 of the more than 1000 exotic plant taxa that have become established in California, USA. Total species richness increases with net primary productivity; however, the exotic flora is richest in low-lying coastal sites that harbor large numbers of imperiled species, while native diversity is highest in areas with high mean elevation. Weedy and invasive exotics are more tightly linked to the distribution of imperiled species than the overall pool of exotic species. Structural equation modeling suggests that while human activities, such as urbanization and agriculture, facilitate the initial invasion by exotic plants, exotics spread ahead of the front of human development into areas with high numbers of threatened native plants. The range sizes of exotic taxa are an order of magnitude smaller than for comparable native taxa. The current small range size of exotic species implies that California has a significant "invasion debt" that will be paid as exotic plants expand their range and spread throughout the state.     

Detecting deterrence from patrol data

The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols’ own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE-E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE-E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE-ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE-ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE-E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching-activity-specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE-ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment.     

An assessment of the risks associated with PCDDs and PCDFs following the application of sewage sludge to agricultural land in the UK

A model has been developed to describe the transfer of PCDDs and PCDFs from sludge-amended soils to the human foodchain. The model is conservative and assumes that all foods consumed by an individual are derived from sludge-amended soils. Predicted concentrations of PCDDs and PCDFs in potatoes, cereals, root vegetables and leafy vegetables were in close agreement with mean concentrations reported in the food survey conducted by MAFF in the UK. Predicted concentrations in milk were well below the Maximum Tolerable Concentration adopted by MAFF. Assuming a half-life of ten years in sludge-amended soils, the maximum estimated incremental daily intake (IDI) predicted by the model following ten applications of sludge to agricultural land was 0.80 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹, representing an increase of approximately 45% on current levels of background exposure. For an individual whose diet is solely derived from sludge-amended soils, the total exposure is predicted to be approximately 181 pg I-TEQ day⁻¹ or 2.6 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹. This compares with an average background exposure of approximately 2 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹, well within the TDI of 10 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹ and indicates that the application of sewage sludge to agricultural land under the conditions assumed would not appear to present a significant health risk under the conservative scenarios considered in this assessment.     

Effect of water-table fluctuation on dissolution and biodegradation of a multi-component, light nonaqueous-phase liquid

Light nonaqueous-phase liquids (LNAPLs) such as gasoline and diesel fuel are among the most common causes of soil and groundwater contamination. Dissolution and subsequent advective transport of LNAPL components can negatively impact water supplies, while biodegradation is thought to be an important sink for this class of contaminants. We present a laboratory investigation of the effect of a water-table fluctuation on dissolution and biodegradation of a multi-component LNAPL (85% hexadecane, 5% toluene, 5% ethylbenzene, and 5% 2-methylnapthalene on a molar basis) in a pair of similar model aquifers (80 cm x 50 cm x 3 cm), one of which was subjected to a water-table fluctuation. Water-table fluctuation resulted in LNAPL and air entrapment below the water table, an increase in the vertical extent of the LNAPL source zone (by factor 6.7), and an increase in the volume of water passing through the source zone (by factor ~18). Effluent concentrations of dissolved LNAPL components were substantially higher and those of dissolved nitrate lower in the model aquifer where a fluctuation had been induced. Thus, water-table fluctuation led to enhanced biodegradation activity (28.3 mmol of nitrate consumed compared to 16.3 mmol in the model without fluctuation) as well as enhanced dissolution of LNAPL components. Despite the increased biodegradation, fluctuation led to increased elution of dissolved LNAPL components from the system (by factors 10-20). Hence, water-table fluctuations in LNAPL-contaminated aquifers might be expected to result in increased exposure of downgradient receptors to LNAPL components. Accordingly, water-table fluctuations in contaminated aquifers are probably undesirable unless the LNAPL is of minimal solubility or the dissolved-phase plume is not expected to reach a receptor due to distance or the presence of some form of containment.