MEASURING IMPACTS OF WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE HUMAN ENVIRONMENT1

The parameters and the measurement procedures described in this paper are seen as being part of the first stage in development of the human environment assessment process. Additional parameters need to be identified, and methods of measuring impacts reflected by the parameters must be developed and refined. Considerations of the human environment and those elements of the natural environment that are of importance to people must be included as an integral part of the environmental impact assessment process. Therefore, there is a need for continuing to identify parameters of the human environment and to develop methods of measuring impacts so that these considerations will become a well-integrated part of the environmental impact assessment process.     

The potential inhalation hazard posed by dioxin-contaminated soil

Conservative models were used to estimate the airborne concentrations of 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) vapor and particulates originating from soil containing 100 ppb TCDD. The upper-bound estimates were 3.25 pg/m³ of airborne TCDD vapor on-site and 0.51 pg/m³ for TCDD vapor 100 meters downwind. The TCDD air concentration on-site due to suspended particulate is estimated to be 1.4 pg/m³, based on a TSP level of 0.07 mg/m³. Assuming 70 years of continuous exposure to these concentrations, the upper-bound cancer risks determined from the Jury model were estimated to be 9.4 × 10⁻⁶ to 1.1 × 10⁻⁴ and 1.5 × 10⁻⁶ to 1.7 × 10⁻⁵ for inhalation of on- and off-site vapor, respectively, and 4.1 × 10⁻⁶ to 4.6 × 10⁻⁵ for dust inhalation. Since few sites have average soil concentrations as high as 100 ppb TCDD, this worst-case analysis indicates that inhalation will rarely, if ever, be a significant route of exposure to TCDD-contaminated soil. Experimental results support this claim and point to much lower risk estimates (8.4 × 10⁻⁹ to 9.9 × 10⁻⁸), suggesting that the parameters used in the Jury model are likely to overestimate the actual airborne levels of TCDD at contaminated sites.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

The current practice of health risk assessment: potential impact on standards for toxic air contaminants

Since the Bhopal incident, the public has placed pressure on regulatory agencies to set community exposure limits for the dozens of chemicals that may be released by manufacturing facilities. More or less objective limits can be established for the vast majority of these chemicals through the use of risk assessment. However, each step of the risk assessment process (i.e., hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) contains a number of pitfalls that scientists need to avoid to ensure that valid limits are established. For example, in the hazard identification step there has been little discrimination among animal carcinogens with respect to mechanism of action or the epidemiology experience. In the dose-response portion, rarely is the range of "plausible" estimated risks presented. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) models should be used to understand the difference between the tissue doses and the administered dose, as well as the difference in target tissue concentrations of the toxicant between rodents and humans. Biologically-based models like the Moolgavkar-Knudson-Venzon (MKV) should be developed and used, when appropriate. The exposure assessment step can be significantly improved by using more sensitive and specific sampling and analytical methods, more accurate exposure parameters, and computer models that can account for complex environmental factors. Whenever possible, model predictions of exposure and uptake should be validated by biological monitoring of exposed persons (urine, blood, adipose) or by field measurements of plants, soil, fish, air, or water. In each portion of an assessment, the weight of evidence approach should be used to identify the most defensible value. In the risk characterization, the best estimate of the potential risk as well as the highest plausible risk should be presented. Future assessments would be much improved if quantitative uncertainty analyses were conducted. Procedures are currently available for making future assessments. By correcting some of these shortcomings in how health risk assessments have been conducted, scientists and risk managers should be better able to identify scientifically appropriate ambient air standards and emission limits.     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

Improved fluorescence peak integration in the Tekran 2537 for applications with sub-optimal sample loadings

The Tekran 2537 is widely used for monitoring atmospheric mercury. Although the instrument was designed for sample volumes in excess of 7.5 L, some recent research applications (e.g. aircraft) have used the instrument with significantly smaller collection times and sample volumes – and therefore smaller Hg loadings per cycle – than for which the instrument was designed. We have noticed a potential for non-linear (low) response in the fluorescence peak integration scheme, and thus the reported concentrations when the Hg loading (per cycle) is less than about 10–15 pg, e.g. at around 1 pg loading, the sensitivity is 25% lower than at 10 pg. We determined that although the atomic fluorescence detector was fundamentally linear down to at least 1 pg, the default peak integration scheme appeared to be optimized for > 10–15 pg cycle^?1 and so could introduce non-linearity in smaller peaks (i.e. lower mass loadings). For research applications where achieving maximum accuracy and precision of individual, high-time resolution (<5 min) points is crucial, users can mitigate this behavior by modifying the integration parameters or recording the full fluorescence peak and processing the data offline. Two offline methods of quantifying the peak also improved the precision and thus suggest an improvement in the detection limit is possible.     

Chromium speciation in the blood of metal-on-metal hip implant patients

The objective of this study was to determine the valence state of chromium (Cr) in the blood of individuals with Cr-containing metal hip implants. Serum and red blood cell (RBC) Cr concentrations from 52 patients with Cr-containing total hip arthroplasties were measured preoperatively and at 3, 12, and 24 months postoperatively. Geometric mean and median pre-surgery serum Cr concentrations were consistently below 0.2 µg/L, while geometric mean and median pre-op RBC Cr concentrations were typically about four- to six-fold higher than the serum values. A significant 5- to 13-fold increase was found in the mean and median serum Cr concentrations three months post-surgery, with an 8- to 18-fold rise at 12 and 24 months, respectively. Steady-state serum concentrations were reached between 3 and 12 months. In contrast, there were no marked differences in mean and median RBC Cr concentrations pre- and post-surgery. Slope regression analysis for our data was similar to those reported for Cr(III) in spiked blood samples. The analysis showed that Cr released from hip implants preferentially distributed into serum and not RBC, indicating that the form of Cr present in blood of hip implant patients was in the form of non-toxic Cr(III). Our findings indicate that blood Cr concentrations Cr(III) associated with metal implants do not pose an adverse health risk to patients, which is in agreement with findings published by most investigators.     

Cobalt speciation assay for human serum,Part II. Method validation in a study of human volunteers ingesting cobalt(II) chloride dietary supplement for 90 days

A new analytical method for determining cobalt (Co) species in human serum by size exclusion chromatography with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (SEC-ICP-MS) was applied to serum samples collected from 12 human volunteers who participated in a Co(II) chloride supplement study involving ingestion of 1 mg Co/day for up to 90 consecutive days. The study protocol included determination of serum total Co by acid digestion followed by ICP-MS. Co speciation assay measurements were conducted for up to 13 time points per individual spanning from one to two weeks before dosing began to two weeks after dosing ceased. The Co speciation assay showed good recovery >91% relative to total Co measurements. Undiluted serum demonstrated uniform fractions of large molecular Co defined as Co bound to albumin and other proteins >50 kDa at 96% and the residual as small molecular Co defined as free Co(II) and <1 kDa Co-complexes for individual serum Co concentrations up to 146 μg/L. There were no dose-related changes in Co distribution. Analysis of the same serum samples with tenfold dilution in 0.1 M acetic acid led to a lower fraction of large molecular Co at 87%, with the difference between diluted and undiluted measurements being 8.4%. The difference noted between undiluted and diluted large molecular Co may be attributed to Co release from albumin. Data demonstrated that large molecular Co was the predominant Co species in both undiluted and diluted human serum over a broad range of in vivo Co concentrations, reflecting high albumin–Co binding capacity. These data validate the Co speciation assay and may be employed in understanding further the toxicokinetics and dose-response relationships for Co species.     

Potential Impact on Standards for Toxic Air Contaminants

Since the Bhopal incident, the public has placed pressure on regulatory agencies to set community exposure limits for the dozens of chemicals that may be released by manufacturing facilities. More or less objective limits can be established for the vast majority of these chemicals through the use of risk assessment. However, each step of the risk assessment process (i.e., hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) contains a number of pitfalls that scientists need to avoid to ensure that valid limits are established. For example, in the hazard identification step there has been little discrimination among animal carcinogens with respect to mechanism of action or the epidemiology experience. In the dose-response portion, rarely is the range of “plausible” estimated risks presented. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) models should be used to understand the difference between the tissue doses and the administered dose, as well as the difference in target tissue concentrations of the toxicant between rodents and humans. Biologically-based models like the Moolgavkar-Knudson-Venzon (MKV) should be developed and used, when appropriate. The exposure assessment step can be significantly improved by using more sensitive and specific sampling and analytical methods, more accurate exposure parameters, and computer models that can account for complex environmental factors. Whenever possible, model predictions of exposure and uptake should be validated by biological monitoring of exposed persons (urine, blood, adipose) or by field measurements of plants, soil, fish, air, or water. In each portion of an assessment, the weight of evidence approach should be used to identify the most defensible value. In the risk characterization, the best estimate of the potential risk as well as the highest plausible risk should be presented. Future assessments would be much improved if quantitative uncertainty analyses were conducted. Procedures are currently available for making future assessments. By correcting some of these shortcomings in how health risk assessments have been conducted, scientists and risk managers should be better able to identify scientifically appropriate ambient air standards and emission limits.     

Cobalt speciation assay for human serum,Part I. Method for measuring large and small molecular cobalt and protein-binding capacity using size exclusion chromatography with inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy detection

A method utilizing size exclusion liquid chromatography (SEC) was developed to separate and quantify large molecular cobalt (Co) (e.g., albumin-Co) from cyanocobalamin (vitamin B₁₂) and small molecular Co (e.g., glutathione-Co and free Co) in human serum. Highly selective and sensitive detection using inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry was coupled with SEC to provide a method with reliable accuracy, precision, recoveries, stability, and a detection limit of 0.037 μg/L in undiluted serum. Other divalent metal cations known to compete with Co(II) for serum albumin-binding sites (such as iron, zinc, manganese, cadmium, copper, nickel, and lead) did not significantly alter Co(II) quantification. Co–protein binding capacity determination of individual serum samples indicated that addition of 2500 μg Co/L to undiluted human serum resulted in approximately 90% distribution to the large molecular Co peak, consistent with Co binding to high-affinity divalent metal binding sites on albumin. Since serum albumin binding partially sequesters biologically active Co(II) ions, this method provides an important tool for better understanding the kinetics and toxicology of Co compounds. Thus, the proposed method might play an important role in establishing Co dose–response relationships that affect the equilibrium concentrations of free ionic Co(II).