Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Water and sustainable development

In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building.     

ARSENIC CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH RISK PERCEPTIONS IN A RURAL WESTERN U.S. AREA1

ABSTRACT: Churchill County, Nevada, has approximately 23,000 residents, among whom an estimated 13,500 relied on private wells for water supply in 2002. This study examined exposure to arsenic in water supplies among residents with private domestic wells and factors related to householder choice to consume tap water. It compared opinions and concerns about water quality with consumption habits and observed concentrations from tap water samples. The results from 351 households indicated that a majority (75 percent) of respondents consumed tap water and that a minority (38 percent) applied treatment. Approximately 66 percent of those who consumed tap water were exposed to concentrations of arsenic that exceeded 10 ppb. Water consumption was related to application of treatment. Among 98 respondents who were not at all concerned about the health effects of aqueous arsenic, 59 (60 percent) reported consuming tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Conversely, among 86 respondents who were highly concerned about arsenic, 33 (37 percent) consumed tap water with concentrations of arsenic exceeding 10 ppb. Results from a national sampling effort showed that 620 of 5,304 private wells sampled (11.7 percent) had arsenic concentrations above 10 ppb. The paradox of awareness of arsenic in water supplies coupled with consumption of aqueous arsenic in concentrations greater than 10 ppb may be common in other parts of the nation. Enhanced educational efforts, especially related to tap water sampling and explanations of efficacy of available treatment, may be useful means of reducing exposure through private water supplies.     

Seasonal fluctuations in sand temperature: effects on the incubation period and mortality of loggerhead sea turtle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">caretta</Emphasis>) pre-emergent hatchlings in Minabe,Japan

Incubation period, hatching success, and emergence percentage in loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nests were quantified during the 1993 and 1995 nesting seasons and following incubation seasons in Minabe, Wakayama, Japan. Sand and nest temperatures were also monitored. Over the seasons, daily mean sand temperature at nest depth fluctuated between 18.0°C and 33.3°C, with a steep increase in the second week of July and a peak in late August. Temperatures inside the nest chambers were a few degrees above those of the surrounding sand at the end of incubation. The incubation period ranged from 46 to 82 days. A significant negative correlation was found between mean sand temperature and incubation period. The relationship conformed to the day-degree concept. There was no significant seasonal trend in hatching success, but many pre-emergent hatchlings were found dead in most of the clutches during the warmest part of the season. Emergence percentage was correlated with mean sand temperature calculated for 4 days before emergence, suggesting that mortality may be due to heat. This heat-related mortality is considered to be a common phenomenon at our study site, because the peak in emergences coincides with the peak in high temperatures. These temperature effects on hatchling mortality must be taken into account in estimates of hatchling sex ratios. Because sand temperatures already exceed the optimal thermal range for incubation, this population is vulnerable to even small temperature increases resulting from global warming.