UNITED STATES ENERGY PROJECTIONS AND OPTIONS

Evaluation of energy options and adoption of appropriate policies require rigorous demand and supply projections. The wider the options, the more difficult the task. The author reviews the various projections which have been made in the United States to support a policy toward energy independence. He sets the stage for a similar review of the 1977 National Energy Outlook, scheduled for publication early in the year, in a subsequent issue of the Forum.     

Bridging the gap between romantic relationships and sexual harassment in organizations

Workplace romances and sexual harassment are pervasive in today's organizations. However, despite the fact that these two phenomena share a social-sexual component, they have primarily been treated as unrelated organizational issues. We advance an affective link between workplace romances and sexual harassment. Based on this theoretical connection, we discuss conditions under which workplace romances may result in sexual harassment. Finally, we address managerial implications of the romance–harassment link. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DNA Fingerprinting Reveals a Lack of Genetic Variation in Northern Populations of the Western Pond Turtle (Clemmys marmorata)

I used DNA fingerprinting to provide the first analysis of the genetic composition of western pond turtle ( Clemmys marmorata ) populations in Washington, Oregon, and California. Populations of the western pond turtle in Washington and northern Oregon are rapidly approaching extinction. Genetic similarity within the largest northern populations, which are located inland, is high. An analysis of population substructure (F_st) revealed significant genetic divergence between inland populations, indicating a lack of dispersal and gene flow between sites. In contrast, northern coastal sites are not genetically distinct, but there are few if any viable populations remaining in this region. Genetic variability within southern California populations is a great deal higher than in northern inland sites. Similarly, a low F_st value indicated a lack of genetic differentiation between southern sites. An inter-regional analysis of population substructure (F_st = 0.24) revealed a significant degree of genetic divergence between geographical regions throughout the range. In addition, an estimate of western pond turtle phylogeny showed a genetic break in the species between northern and southern populations. Both population subdivision and phylogenetic analyses suggest a lack of appreciable gene flow between geographical regions for a considerable period of time. Genetic analyses support traditional subdivision based solely on the morphological variation of Clemmys marmorata into two subspecies: northern Clemmys marmorata marmorata and southern Clemmys marmorata pallida . Recovery of dwindling northern populations must combine demographic and genetic considerations. A first step should be to preserve local gene pools while augmenting population numbers, with the goal of preventing the extinction of this genetically and morphologically distinct subspecies.     

Local‐Scale Dynamics and Local Drivers of Bushmeat Trade

Bushmeat management policies are often developed outside the communities in which they are to be implemented. These policies are also routinely designed to be applied uniformly across communities with little regard for variation in social or ecological conditions. We used fuzzy‐logic cognitive mapping, a form of participatory modeling, to compare the assumptions driving externally generated bushmeat management policies with perceptions of bushmeat trade dynamics collected from local community members who admitted to being recently engaged in bushmeat trading (e.g., hunters, sellers, consumers). Data were collected during 9 workshops in 4 Tanzanian villages bordering Serengeti National Park. Specifically, we evaluated 9 community‐generated models for the presence of the central factors that comprise and drive the bushmeat trade and whether or not models included the same core concepts, relationships, and logical chains of reasoning on which bushmeat conservation policies are commonly based. Across local communities, there was agreement about the most central factors important to understanding the bushmeat trade (e.g., animal recruitment, low income, and scarcity of food crops). These matched policy assumptions. However, the factors perceived to drive social‐ecological bushmeat trade dynamics were more diverse and varied considerably across communities (e.g., presence or absence of collaborative law enforcement, increasing human population, market demand, cultural preference). Sensitive conservation issues, such as the bushmeat trade, that require cooperation between communities and outside conservation organizations can benefit from participatory modeling approaches that make local‐scale dynamics and conservation policy assumptions explicit. Further, communities’ and conservation organizations’ perceptions need to be aligned. This can improve success by allowing context appropriate policies to be developed, monitored, and appropriately adapted as new evidence is generated. Dinámicas a Escala Local y Conductores Locales del Mercado de Carne de Caza     

Use of Fatty Acid Analysis to Determine Dispersal of Caspian Terns in the Columbia River Basin,U.S.A.

Abstract: Lethal control, which has been used to reduce local abundances of animals in conflict with humans or with endangered species, may not achieve management goals if animal movement is not considered. In populations with emigration and immigration, lethal control may induce compensatory immigration, if the source of attraction remains unchanged. Within the Columbia River Basin (Washington, U.S.A.), avian predators forage at dams because dams tend to reduce rates of emigration of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.), artificially concentrating these prey. We used differences in fatty acid profiles between Caspian Terns (Hydroprogne caspia) at coastal and inland breeding colonies and terns culled by a lethal control program at a mid‐Columbia River dam to infer dispersal patterns. We modeled the rate of loss of fatty acid biomarkers, which are fatty acids that can be traced to a single prey species or groups of species, to infer whether and when terns foraging at dams had emigrated from the coast. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling showed that coastal terns had high levels of C₂₀ and C₂₂ monounsaturated fatty acids, whereas fatty acids of inland breeders were high in C18:3n3, C20:4n6, and C22:5n3. Models of the rate of loss of fatty acid showed that approximately 60% of the terns collected at Rock Island Dam were unlikely to have bred successfully at local (inland) sites, suggesting that terns foraging at dams come from an extensive area. Fatty acid biomarkers may provide accurate information about patterns of dispersal in animal populations and may be extremely valuable in cases where populations differ demonstrably in prey base.     

Contrasting Colonist and Indigenous Impacts on Amazonian Forests

Abstract: To examine differences in land use and environmental impacts between colonist and indigenous populations in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon, we combined data from household surveys and remotely sensed imagery that was collected from 778 colonist households in 64 colonization sectors, and 499 households from five indigenous groups in 36 communities. Overall, measures of deforestation and forest fragmentation were significantly greater for colonists than indigenous peoples. On average, colonist households had approximately double the area in agriculture and cash crops and 5.5 times the area in pasture as indigenous households. Nevertheless, substantial variation in land‐use patterns existed among the five indigenous groups in measures such as cattle ownership and use of hired agricultural labor. These findings support the potential conservation value of indigenous lands while cautioning against uniform policies that homogenize indigenous ethnic groups.